Trading Houston ...

Dave,

Closed up 0.72% to 13,877.82 yesterday. Getting close to that 13,900 level and then hopefully back on to 14,000.

At least the ASX is still closing daily in record territory and back up again today. 6700 by calendar year end is looking very achievable now with it trading at 6550 odd today.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Michael, this is not to pick but some of my thinging at the moment...

Thats a 150 point increase on 6550 points (2.29%), annualised this is 8.8%. If you believe (and somewhat that i believe) this is where the market will end up at the end of the year. The projected return is only going to match the cost of capital and not put you far in front. Is the risk of the bull ending and goes bye bye to your returns worth that type of risk???

My personal opinion is the market may have gone 2 far in the last few days and im seriously considering heavy profit taking in my funds due to the above reason. (as well as ill probably be adding a new asset class next week in a PPOR, offers been accepted just waiting on contracts...)

 

Hi Dave,

Yep, your thinking is sort of where mine is right now. However, 6700 is what some analysts are calling fair value now and the year end close is just a forward projection of that. The market could shrug off the credit squeeze blues and run well beyond that. Its all just a question of the levels of fear and greed present. Recently fear ruled the day, but it appears that greed is starting to return to the fore.

I'm going to watch what happens in the US carefully and ride this upswing for a while longer. We're definately not out of the woods yet, and an 8% cost of capital is really limiting my potential leveraged returns from this asset class in the current environment.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Oops....I missed your post.

No.... It's not that easy and is more complicated than that.
I'll try explain to you when I have more time.
All I can think of now is my holiday as I am about to take off.
Ask me the same question in 4-5 weeks time.
Have a good one.

 

The experts are predicting a new high tomorrow due to it being the end of the quarter and many funds having cash that needs to be spent. US funds may take some end of fin year profits from our markets.

 

New high reached on the Dow.

Dow soars to record as credit worries ease - Business - Business - smh.com.au

Should be a nice open on the ASX today.

CHeers,
Michael.