Trading How can I be patient?

Patience is virtue, which is necessary to wait for your turn in the stock market. Few can be patient unless he runs away and forget. Even you stay in sideline, you can be frustrated rather than patient when you can get anything to cheer.

Bargaining is necessary for any business to lower the cost, but if your capital is trapped by the stuffs no one wants, you can not feel good. The longer you are trapped there, the more impulsively you want to do something. The direct goal you made is fading away and your mood tend to take the control unless you know how to cheer yourselves wisely.

Everyone's patience has the limit. Within your limitation when market has a lot of blood but not all of the blood from those they have to shed the light in their patient limit. It is not enough we just know patience is virtue but we have to get very strong bases for our patience.

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Do you know how you could extend your patience when you have to? You need a holistic view about the economies, not just local but global ones, and be sure you have tolerable errors, which is not easy.

You could not just cry since the crying would frustrate your will and patience only. Too many traders and investors say it is impossible to know the lowest points but is it good for your patience? Traders know how important a historical trend is. Investors too but why do they jumped onto the board together at the peak before GFC or sold on the fire when damages have been done?

Few can get the lowest points but it doesn't mean you should not try your best for them. They are the chances or turning points to set your fate in the crashes.

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If you are sure you could not get what you want around the lowest prices, it is simply telling that you are not qualified mentally and financially.

Do you want to be qualified? Do you want to be qualified? It is cruel to see the blood flowing everywhere and don't know when the warriors would not shed the blood any more. Do you want to be one of these warriors?

Of course not! How to avoid your shedding of the bloods and get your chances? You have to be patient for your turns, don't you?

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Greece can trigger a terrible domino effect. It will elect its government again. Germany economies are very good but it could not bail out everyone in EU at the unaffordable cost. EU is not a country and it could not bail out any nation to kill several good economies for all of EU.

All want to throw the Greece away but worry the tolls unaffordable. It is high probable something triggers the exit of Greece in surprise. In my view Greece seems have to exit from EU and all are about in order or disorder.

Bargaining at wrong time for wrong things can be disastrous. It is a double-edge sword too. If you feel not patient enough, just image what if you are cut on a slaughter table into pieces. Can you? No gut? it is not the place for you.

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Patience needs a strong heart or gut while a safe corner or castle you can trust. These corners or castles should be really strong for any tsunamis or worst case so that you can sit down there to read and ponder or take some entertainment without worrying about the fire would burn you down.

I just could not see any logic how people could be so cheer in a day XAO just recovers 0.8% while the sword still hang over their head. Bargains are the matter you should rather be later than earlier. If you mist this time you still can bargain again some day later.

News said in next 5-6 years WA needs 100,000 workers and we have planed to import labors, 1,700. A LP senate said the unemployed workers in East don't want to move to WA. All are good news for the traders or investors with the corners in WA.

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What if China, US, and EU would be up together at some points in next 5 or 10 years? Could I have the gut, patience, and capital for the days? If you can not buy safely don't buy. Why do you buy the bullets to kill yourself with the useless lines and patterns?

When all of the people shed the blood it is great time to train yourselves for wisdom, intelligence, and bottom identification if you can cheerful to work for your mind and business model. Do you know why I choose now to get my English Listening better? I am cool and be very patient even I feel frustrated too time by time.

It is my dream to be patient in ruins for survival and chances and then I should learn to be ready to sell all of my investment properties and shares and wait for the new crashes and everyone in the stock market sheds the blood again.

 

Stimulus vs Exit

It is a crucial time for stock market if not for the economies. It is a time full of risks and chances.

1. Greece exist
2. Stimulus from governments globally to stall the domino effect

Where will the stock market go? Exit or stimulus first? There are news that China would stimulate its economies, which if happens definitely is a good news and can ignite a lot of hopes as shown in last two days.

However in my view the first thing is whether Greece would exit. If the car can run smoothly and keep your mind peaceful, you will not want to let a lot of oil into the engine. So the logic is the shock should be first and then... It would take tolls first.

If Greece would not exit, everything should be in its course for days if not months. To XAO, no one want to put the necks below the Greece sword and most of intelligent guys are preparing for what ifs.

17 June is a day to decide if a sword over there would drop down. Is it wise to put your neck under the sword with the hope it would not drop down? Do you really know the crowd in Greece?

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Trade Minister flagged despite recent signs that its economy might be slowing China could soon end up buying even more raw materials from Australia. It is a good news but it seems saying rather than orders.

Traders are in paradox now and actually it is very hard to predict the price would be up first and go down or go down first and up. How to steer your car in the stock market safely and profitably. It seems wise to let the sword drop down first, which would turn a lot of cat to run without heads.

We all don't want to be gamblers but we could not forget three basic elements to decide your losses and profits: when and what to buy, sell, and hold. Let's the head-less cats run first and then you have chances to service the warriors safely.

I don't question China would stimulate the economies, actually all of policy makers would do so if their pocket allow. However it is not the jobs for investors and traders to save anyone in the stock market. Do you know that?

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I am working hard on my English Listening and my defensive lines. I want to get about $20,000 per year if the stock market is in worst cases and I want to have the chances to get killing if too many people suddenly turn to be cheerful.

If I buy I want to buy from the headless cats in the stock market. If they have the head to cheer or cry I would not buy! Is it cruel? Yes, it is very much. So don't be the head-less cat since your losses would be others' profit. Zero-sum game? It is if you just follow the winds.

All of us read the news and need to read the news but don't read the news for quick guess. Use your brains as an intelligent businesslike people in the stock market.

 

BHP into protective mode, why?

Big boys usually don't be feared by the crowd sentiment until something really bad or expected to be bad, which would bring in dire consequences. News said BHP will freeze all its board-level approvals for major projects for six months. Oh, just six months? It seems to wait for the result from Greece.

"BHP Billiton's taking a raincheck on its ambitious expansion plans." If you can not make profit, you should not spend or let the cost run. BHP seems feel the economics of some of its big projects is changed for the next two years, 18 months perhaps. It just want to wait and see how things develop.

Why? It is because the future of many commodity prices is too uncertain to guarantee a good return for BHP. By the way it tells the market that if it doesn't see a strong pricing environment for our commodities where it can generate a reasonable margin then it'll leave the stuff in the ground.

It seems BHP is very cautious on the risks while trying to make best profit. Could we, traders and investors, put harness on the risks for our profit margins?

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It is said the long-term outlook for many commodities is good and but in short term investors concern that it's spending too much on its expansions. A good business has to balance its short and long term outlook and leave enough room for the outbreaks along its road.

BlackRock, BHP's big shareholder, worries BHP has spend too much money on long term development projects. BHP seems care very much about the negative near term sentiment that's around in the financial markets. It should be. Financial crises can destroy any business if its cash position is not strong enough.

In the crash from its start to its end, the cash is king. You have to avoid over-spending and hold the cash to avoid any possibility to sale on fire for your mouth.

 

Get your feet cold!

Really don't know where Greece and EU go after 17 June. Really don't know how China, US, and German would response. Really don't know how the fretted Aussie crowd react to if Greece exit. Really don't know...

In the business, it is said if you don't know you don't do. In the stock market, I never could avoid to be burnt when I didn't know but guessed. I never could get what I want when the market was before the storm or in the cold winter.

Now Aussies are waiting for some bad things happen even no one can tell what would really happen. Uncertainty is very powerful to crash things down. Damages have been down and then you can forget. Now you could not go forward and you could not forget somethings which you can not explain clearly.

It really kills the people. Most of traders would die generation and generation which actually started not too far but 1990s. They are the surfers who are brave and shrewd but less wise. They can got some in booming years but they tend to lose all in days or months when crash hit them.

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I did feel BHP performed very well in GFC since it jumped into the boom early and tried to collect the harvest before GFC. It tends to get its feet cold before any financial tsunami. It tends to go away from where it could be killed.

It would puts the Olympic Dam's estimated $30 billion expansion plans into suspension. It is a terrible and appalling news to its traders and investors in short term. However the logic is so obvious that no one could get harvest in the frozen winter such as in Serbia. Well essentially it is looking at a situation where it will not prepared to make an investment for the next six months depending on external factors; that it's been telling us the same news for the last six months. It has been taken a defensive gesture.

It's nervousness about China and it's nervousness about how much they can actually invest in order to get some traction with their projects; The traders and investors thought it's not particularly good news. However if you have locked the profit and want to get excellent bargains and margin of safety, you should feel not bad.

BHP knows it could not get good margins in the winter. Most of traders and investors don't know it. They just know to be happy in the parties and cry in ruins.

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Poor traders become poorer since they are warriors. Businesslike service business should be no loss or no big losses by avoiding put their feet into the valley of death.



I am still in my learning curve and fortunately I did start to build my last defensive lines last year. I do hope the tsunami could come in days and then I can run under the Sun around my corner.

I want to get my feet cold too with the wonder when the last straw could crash Greece down. Yes I rather miss all of the trains than get onto board of wrecked train in near future. However it is easy to say but very hard to do.

All of warriors get into the valley of death cheerfully...

 

Be honest in cold water

Are you in cold water or do you see your mates there or here are in the cold water? Are your feet cold or your head cold? Do you know the differences of feet cold or head cold?

Don't tell me you have nothing cold even you stay in your corners! Be honest and know whom you are and see what difference between you and the crowd! Do you know you could not ignore all of these if you feel you have any responsibility for yourselves not anyone else?

Too many feel the cold and too many in the cold water. Too many not just let their feet cold but also let their head frozen. I could not see what I could get from "Billionaires Index" since I am not one of them. Yes, they lose a lot too but they just become less rich but I am just absolutely poor viewed from their angles.

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Why do I compare me with Billionaires? I am simply not qualified as an intelligent traders or investors. I have different issues or problems from those they have. Why do I put my efforts in English listening you don't need?

Everyone has to fix his own problems. Do you know that? If you cannot get gut to be honest about yourselves, you would bankrupt to follow any billionaires. Could you exactly follow Livermore? Could you exactly follow Warren Buffett?

They lose but they still have huge asset to lose. You lose but you have lost so much that you have to fight in the valley of death. You are in the army but you are in the valley of death but these guys are at some tops for their successes with vision, strategies, plan, and timing to use their backup team.

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Do you have the backup team? Do you have the assets to lose? Do you know these billionaires have total different ways to accumulate the fortunes? So many differences and how you can put your in the queues as thought you are one of them?

Money never could stay in the stupid and weak hands too long. In a decade, you just could not accumulate a million of dollars, don't you? You make one after another failure and you do still not feel shame? How could you do so? You know you are joking with your future? It is completely ignorant, arrogant, and will result in completely insanity and craziness.

What're lessons you have got? You just have the losing experiences. You are still the market babies. You could not look after yourselves. Do you know that? Yes not all who know the truth would be the winners but it is shamed to lose but still be so stupid.

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Be honest you are in the cold water. Market doesn't distribute money as our second wealth distribution system. I feel shamed for myself. I spent a decade but still a layman!

I do hope I could be self-aware and environment aware. It is hard to change yourselves but if you start with less gifts about the money you have to change so that you could be in the market for long enough time. Billionaires? It is not a issue just about wisdom but lucks!

Don't feel upset if you can be wise enough but still could not get the money. Don't stop to give out your efforts since you worry you are not so lucky. You don't know and no one know your lucks or not lucks until you stop your efforts.

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I feel very cold in my corner but I could not stop to measure the temperature outside. I just feel cold but I never lose the hopes. Boom follows the bust and will. Patience is virtue but traumas or depression is ill.

Too many are ill now. My question is whether or or there are enough people ill. I just worry about that my depression can overwhelm my patience. I have been ill in most of time in the last decade, I want to be healthy to run my service business for the warriors. It will add a little bit more hopes for the stock market if I could change.

Of course we can choose no change, which is not wrong. It might be your gift since all of the warriors would stay in the cold water for much longer time than anyone's expectation.

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Now my option which I believe is wise: wait to see all of the warriors who are rush for the exit, fall down in the blood not just in the cold water, which should be around 17 June of 2012. Before that God would not give the mettle to the policy makers. The crowd could not save themselves always.

Don't think I am not confused or don't worry about my train would stay there to wait for me. I was an trader for bargaining before. What traders' problem? They are in constant worries and have no gut to choose the wise option.

All of traders can appreciate the words from the remote places since they are mystery to them. They never have the time to understand anything. They don't have their own brains in the stock market and they don't have the brains to see the logic and get the logic from others. They get the quick satisfaction. They love copying and pasting.

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I will remember bust would close its course by a havoc in surprise. All are in so smoothy course into the crash is unbelievable.

Why should I save Greece if I was a policy maker in Australia to let all of voters curse me? Why did Labor spread the money among the poor in GFC crash and no one cursed them? Why don't I believe China would stimulate its economies now? Not all of the timing, crowd sentiment, and the possible economy fundamental are important to traders or investors but critical to the politicians.

When all of the politicians feel they would drop into the cold water if they don't act, they would act for their survival, which contribute the common good with the help of democracy. Do you remember why and when V-shape recovery happened? Do you remember how long it took?

 

Most important quality of a CEO?

Are you gambling or running your own businesses for trading or investment? If you are gambling you would have very high odds to be one of warriors currently in the valley of death sooner or later.

They follow others' commands rather than their intelligent judgment based on deep understanding of the high-consequent scenarios. No too many traders know they should have the capability to lead themselves for future profit if not fortunes.

They always run as the head-less cats to the parties or exit of chaos in stampede. How many traders can sell before the crash for cash and buy after the crash as seeds for next harvest or boom? Few here or there!

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To lead your businesses into a profit fortune, you have to be a leader. Is it a simple logic? Have you thought about what is the most important quality for a CEO of your business in the stock market?

So far few can be found. If you never know the important to be a leader, you have high odds to lose in the way. Even some asked the questions and get some very good points, such as discipline, analysis, and self-reliance, they tend to believe a leader just need some competence to run some computer systems.

What means for competence? It is the condition of being capable. It may be right but vague to follow. Why is he competent and are others not so? It is the same as about anything. If you don't know why, when, where, what for, what being, and so on, you just twist the words.

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What makes you to be in a business rather in gambling euphoria? What make you a competent and, therefore, successful businesslike trader or investor?

My personal experience in the stock market includes

1) hold shares of start-ups on the verge of bankruptcy, where success was simply a turnaround and acquisition that recovered the value such as FMS and PRR,

2) hold shares of several public companies that achieved liquidity events (merger or acquisition) at desirable valuations such as ERG before 2000 or later when it was in big trouble

3) Never hold any shares of the companies with growing revenue and profit where the market caps increased steadily.

4) Hold shares of a few small companies (public and private) where profitability was either stagnant or never achieved.

Logically I should chase after the companies with growing revenue and profit with increased steady market caps. I didn't do so. I want to do so. But in reality I just could not do so. I have to admit I don't follow the logic as any losers in this stock market.

Logic is simple and beauty which if we can hold we know what god wants us to do, isn't it?

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Most of traders and investors may know or may not that your mental framework decide what you look for and work for. Gamblers will find the chances to gamble and businesslike people will find the chances to get what they should get from their work and intelligent analysis.

I do realize my risks and chances in the last decade were all for a gambler. It is not because I was an bargain hunter but it is because I was a gambler. Anything can be used for gambling and anything if it can make value can be run in business way.

I was not happy what I have done in last decade. I feel really shamed for what I guessed, did, and got between May - Oct 2011. The only thing makes me a little bit relax is I know what the root causes are.

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Shares naturally are the percentages of the business ownership of the owners.

All of us know the business must make profit and then their owners could get better off. All of us know the crowd sentiment would drive the share price up or down without matter how bad or good of the business, which is very true in the extreme turmoil or euphoria times. However few of traders or investors really know how to buy wisely, hold wisely, and sell wisely. Me? A bloody insane gambler sometimes.

I am still half of a gambler, quarter of a market babies, and quarter of a market student with too much wonders or perplexes. I have to be alerted...

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We have to know the common metric in each situation as a businesslike people was an increase or decrease in enterprise value of your businesses.

The metric is measured as a multiple of the company’s book value, which linked with the shares you hold. You have to know in the short-term, your and others' companies valuation can be influenced by many factors (e.g., market, technology, regulation, irrational exuberance), but over the long-term (several years to decades), the success of a company is best measured by its increase in enterprise value.

How could you increase your enterprise value? You have to hold something which can produce some trustful income even in the worst time and produce the gains after the time passes by long enough.

All in all if you could not get what you wanted in last decade, the crises provide the best chances to reckon yourselves. It needs the gut.

 

This time XAO doesn't want to lead...

In August 2011, XAO desperately led the world into a imaginary GFCII, while it threw itself to 3800 around. This time it seems get its lesson and refuse to lead but follow only. Do wonder why it refuses to lead this time.

1. Unfortunately EU seems become worse everyday but far from to be worst.
2. Greece set the reckoning day, 17 June.
3. Spain's debt seems need to bail out.
4. Austerity is being challenged by the crowd and it gives the weapons for the populists in EU. It is happy in the party but no one want to pay the debt.
5. China is slowing down and the rumor for its shed huge stimulus faded away just in two days.
6. US job record was disappointed and DOW shed 200 points around now.

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Run away in May but it seems the traders and investors, who are still in the market, would run away too in June. The crowd here or there globally has attracted by the possible EU crash and believe if EU disintegrates, all would be down.

Aussies have run in the downward slop for more than 14 months, which makes the shorter fear. These shorters have been burnt before. They could short from some tops but they can not short in the bottom. The bargain hunters have been burnt too before and they also fear to buy under the sword of EU, Greece, China, and US.

All wait for something to end the EU crises. Any good or bad news or rumor stir the fragile nerves. Some do feel the bottom has been formed and started to buy back in last two days in XAO. I do feel the stock market is setting the bottom but do feel some last havoc could come in to motivate EU, China, and US make decision.

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Very interested to see DOW shed about 200 points now. News said the U.S. economy added only 69,000 jobs in May, while economists expected an increase of 165,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 8.2% from 8.1% as more people entered the workforce.

It seems that all of the world wait the big boys globally, like US, China, and German, to stimulate the economies, or print more money. But the delay of the stimulus seems unavoidable. Too many what ifs. China wants to stabilize its economies. German doesn't want to bail out all of EU. US needs worse unemployed data. It is very gloomy but all seem hope others to do what they want. Greek wants the bail out but no one to take the pains.

Who want to downgrade their life styles? Some very bad things must happen and then the people can be motivated for common good. How bad is it? When is it the Pearl Harbor for EU, China, and US this time?

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Patience is virtue in this unpredictable time. I am monitoring the looming heavy cloud.

This tsunami should come in to hit the warriors down from the valley of death into the hell. Once it comes in, there would be plenty of time to let the survival warriors recover and let the stimulus flush into the market and economies.

I want to buy but I have to see the warriors are completely hopeless first. The risk is not little if EU crashes down to ground. I could not sacrifice my army to fight for a hopeless attrition war before a true turning point comes into our sight.

I could not be impatient which is too risk to be survival let alone revival.

 

Reflexivity and stock market

Europe has been on the ropes for sometimes. There are no certainty he economic and political future uncertain in the U.S., China, and Australia, Aussie traders or investors have being flocked into safety and away from risk.

It seems we're at a dangerous point, vulnerable to tipping into a self-fulfilling loop where fear of a slowing economy begets an even slower economy, and the slower the economies are the more fear the crowd hold. This positive feedback loop are self-destructive forces and will declare huge tolls.

In a normal environment, 5.2% unemployment rate would be something to cheer, something to take our minds off the more dreadful matters. However in this climate, all we can see is the bad news, the news that confirms our fears, and our fear drive the stock market and economies down further.

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George Soros said that his own financial success has been attributable to the edge by his understanding of the action of the reflexive effect. Have you learned anything about the reflexivity before?

Soros thought reflexivity in the financial market is based on three main ideas:

1. Under some special conditions investors or traders have grown bias which would spread throughout the market arena. Some factors can rise the bias, such as leverage and trend following habit.

2. Reflexivity appears intermittently. It is most probable to be revealed under certain conditions; Market can be out of equilibrium and the equilibrium process should be analyzed in terms of probabilities.

3. Traders or investors' perceives of and participation in the capital markets may at times influence valuations and fundamental conditions or outcomes.



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Reflexivity is where the biases of traders or investors enter into market transactions, potentially changing the perception of fundamentals of the economy.

Different principles would apply in markets depending on whether they are in a "near to equilibrium" or a "far from equilibrium" state, as Soros explained. When markets are rising or falling rapidly, they are typically marked by disequilibrium rather than equilibrium.

In the disequilibrium stages the conventional economic theory of the market does not apply in these situations. There are the concepts of dynamic disequilibrium, static disequilibrium, and near-equilibrium conditions.

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What's the equilibrium status of the stock market now?

It is disequilibrium. It is in a self-destruction positive feedback loop. It waits for the conditions to get into dynamic disequilibrium and before this dynamic status happen, it cannot get into static disequilibrium and end around the near-equilibrium points.

Today US job report make some dynamic disequilibrium conditions ready so that DOW lost more than 250 points. It would make crowd sentiment worse and more fearful to the date, 17 June of 2012.

 

Why is patience a virtue?

Have you ask you a question as that in your life, job, and trading or investment? Have you remembered any time you got what you want without patience since it was important and not quick solutions? Have you wanted to be a doctor, a businessman, or what you admire? Why did you give up?

Anything if good to a life big enough, could not get in days effortless. It is so obviously even some just get some life turning points. Before those turning points you have to work hard to get the conditions ready and grip up on the turning points when they are available and should be available.

What is a virtue for human life? A virtue is a trait or quality deemed to be morally or professionally or financially or legendarily excellent and thus is valued as a foundation of principle and good moral being, which can let us behave right for our right direct or indirect goal.

Patience can make us better people in what we want.

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We need to be disciplined but could we be disciplined if we are not patient to update our mental framework?

Patience is about to tolerate delay which implies disciplines or self control or forbearance, and vision, knowledge, and mental independence. When we say "patience is a virtue" we are exposing our moral values and expressing the importance of patience as a foundation of principle.

Patience is not a virtue to most of traders. It is not a gift trait to them. They don't want to see a whole picture with their own eyes and they don't understand they could not drag the seeds out everyday to check.

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Patience is only a virtue until it truly becomes a virtue and knowing how diverse the spectrum of individualism. To most of them patience is a vice. They love to make losses and stop the losses since they have not the patience.

Buying with margin of safety needs patience. Margin of safety is not always with the market in all of time. Before the warriors are shocked into completely dumb or numb, the puffs gone first and then the value shrunk to the level it could not be shrunk any more, but some air of the value is the necessary conditions to be alive.

I believe the air of the value has gone too much since last August but Greece could trigger a huge vacuum of EU to get all of air out. I know value could not die. I know the air can be misused in extreme. I know I must be patient to give my hand while all of warriors are hopeless.

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I don't agree all of the words about patience but every time when I read them I get some new meaning from them.

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"Patience is a virtue, have it if you can.
Seldom found in woman,
Never in a man"

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The truth about patience:

Patients is a virtue because it is developed through difficulties and troubles. When men or women lack understanding of the reality with logic and common sense, it is impossible for them to be patient for a winning way.

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What is a winning way? You need to know what you want and see the worst cases. Could you see the worst is coming in or have a high probability to come in? Yes? Be patient.

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Glad to see DOW shed another 270 points. If I can see the worst in high enough probability I hope it come in early and quick but I would never rush to take action.

It is a time we all exaggerate bad things and ignore the good things. It would work with other elements of the stock market to crash more into the valley of death. The worse can be worse with what we have now, the sentiment, the fundamental problems, the high speed of information spreading, and then we all try to make the bad news.

At a point thing would be no worse anymore! We need the patience for this point ahead.