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Trading How do you protect yourselves?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 6th Mar, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Market playing is to get good enough return without the risks to lose your shirts or burn your hard-earning money. So each buying should be dealt with as you start a new project for others and then you get your return for your efforts. Market crowd is your customer, economies is the background you have to work on and each share is your project to satisfy the crowd and market requirements.

    As any project could fail, your buying could fail too. Failure is not a problem but fail to design your buying for fail-safe would wipe you out. Do you know the term, "Design failure mode effects analysis?" It is a logical design process for any project which is in the strategic level. How many market players really want to know the failure possibility, probability, affordability, and design failure mode effects for their buying shares per day if not per year?

    You have to identify, quantify, and reduce design risk of your buying, holding, and selling. It has to provide a traceable record for your reasons to buy, hold, and sell, and the consequences of these projects. You have to get your own way to justify the design of your buying, holding, and selling activities. You have to get a means for continuous return improvement.

    Most of market if they know what they should do would do skillfully. The problem is most of them don't know what is right way for their project:

    Some said BHP is in downward trend but all of the assertion is about which line they use and they don't have ideas how these lines set in past and how these line up or down in future. They guess the future based on the random movement of the past. Why do you lose your shirts in GFC? Did you use the same thing now and then? Did you behave the same now as then?

    What's the logic and sense: 35.8, a stop losses line?

    It is insane to repeat the way you lose for the dream of huge fortune in future. I was very insane before 2004. I was insane again since April 2011. It was the fact even I felt shamed before but now I just want to be wiser and intelligent. I want to be right logically first. Who care about the lines only? The losers! Did you lost a lot before? Warning: you could lose more in future and be wiped out!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    General schedules or steps for good buying

    What do you want to buy? Why do you want to buy, for guess, feeling, hot level, discount to a calculated value, margin of safety, bloods in the market, and anything else such as lines or patterns in past?

    Do you know the national/culture features in price movement, sector sentiment, shares in interest, and your evaluation? Have you done good enough valuation?

    How could the design potentially fail to meet the design intent for your buying, holding, and selling? You have to find the true cause of failure at a higher level due to the limitation of your mental framework or the effect of a failure at a lower level. What's your knowledge base? Googling without any deep understanding?

    Do you consider all types of failures for your buying, holding and selling? How would the design potentially fail to meet the design intent? It is a inverting process and scenario selections but how most of market players do?

    ***
    People fail to protect themselves since in most of time they could not recognize the failure and the consequences. Have you rated the severity of the failure effect to your finance?

    Severity ranking should be linked to the effect of the failure and your future intentionally. Are you intentional market players?

    Failure causes and mechanisms are an indication of your mental weaknesses. Potential failure modes are the consequences of the failure causes. A single failure mode may have multiple failure mechanisms in your mind.

    ***
    Storm your brain for change since success is the result of dynamic changed environment and your responses. It is to identify possible failure mechanisms.

    Why do you so upset by different views? Don’t be afraid to identify as many potential causes as you can and anyone else can help you to identify.

    When you have good mind it will help guide you in necessary design changes. The output of the design failure effect analysis will indicate on which item to focus design efforts.

    My analysis concludes that my mind has to be updated otherwise I would fail in the market.
     
  3. DrJohns

    DrJohns Member

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    Never was a fan of technical analysis. I think you are still insane, but then again you lost me at "Market playing..." :confused:
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Few could not be not insane in the market. I am still insane which highlight the needs to update the minds. We could not avoid confusing since any tilt of our view points would result in different views. It is process to introduce brainstorm to trigger better idea and a healthy mental framework.

    It is not about technical analysis but the ways to let us be analytical. Market playing is used to separate us from the market warriors who struggle in the crowd sentiment fads for quick money or cry tearfully in ruins. We see too many warriors in the ruins for US, China, and Australia besides their own financial graves.

    Playing means we need peaceful minds, carefully plan and operational procedure, analytical skills for what we do in the market, and intelligently judge based on different output scenarios.

    Technical analyses have their parts to all of market players. The time and place to use them must be right. I use the wave theories time by time since it is helpful to know the crowd sentiment and to do thing without any emotion. The key is to use the emotion in the right way such as we could passionately update our minds.

    ***
    Rate the occurrence in statistics, which may help us to get lowest tail of the probability distribution of the prices. Why so? It is because all would come back means sooner or later. Something happen with complicated causes. Sometimes we just could know the causes.

    At least in theory, we could put control on our buying, holding, and selling even we could not control the events to move the price. In the business it is a rule that if you could not find strong cause for your success you should not do.

    We need to:
    1. Prevent the cause of the failure mode (1st choice solution)
    2. Detect the cause of the failure mode (2nd choice solution)
    3. Detect the failure mode directly (3rd choice solution)

    ***
    Do you have enough tolerance for your failure or fail-safe?
    Have you tested your ideas?
    Do you do the proven buying, holding, and selling procedures?
    Do you have your last defensive line?
    Do you have your corners for yourself when everyone else cries for sky falling down?

    A great mental framework is to invert your views, put control on yourself for protection, and give the chances to choose the chance and risk wisely for the goal, big enough fortune for yourself not anyone else! Very self-interest or selfish? It is the rule of wild field and war!

    We could not be sure we could win in flash. We could behave to make good chances not certainty for a individual buying but we have to be sure the collectively consequences of your portfolio is positive always and never stop the losses on the fire.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Mar, 2012
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It is an evolutionary process!

    Design failure mode effect analysis for buying, holding, and selling is a evolutionary process as the updating of mental framework updating or my social English improvement. It is important to know this and would stop you to over smart for quick money and then quick stopping loses.

    I am working on concept development of a safety instrumented system. I target to get a workable concept but use what I get in the market and contribute more into my market understanding. Some points could be the causes of the failure but if

    1. we revise our DFMEA frequently for market and physical system we would make us mental more matured.
    2. Diligence will eliminate design risk and the risk to pay too much for your buying.
    3. Writing is the most important way to clarify your minds for any serious projects and market action.
    4. At some points of your continue efforts for a better mind, you would suddenly find you could question for chances and affordable risks instinctively even it is not from your birth!

    When could you get so far? Don't know but I will if I am lucky enough. I am very focus and goal driving now. At the bottom of any system there are some very basic and logic poles. The modern society generate too many quick professionals who are skillful and just skillful on the top with fatal problems in the roots. Actually most of market players fail due to the root problems.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Mar, 2012
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why Up Pattern become down one?

    Just last week the traders in different forums stopped to cry any further and turned to be optimism for the upward trend. Based on the upward sentiment, the traders turned their optimistic eyes into future and got their lines back to support the future market booming.

    Unfortunately it is natural as that no one could be sure where the wind would go, the up-pattern suddenly change its shape to down one. It is a surprised movement in the market to these future tellers based on the pattern. If the down pattern continues its course, more traders would use their skillful burning money tool, "stopping the losses."

    ***
    There are 4 seasons in nature. Does Market have the seasons too. No future tellers care about it but the price down means the losses. They have to do something quickly enough. You have to be decisive and follow your patterns otherwise you would be hurt more. It is a advice that you have to let your calm down, everything makes money but upsetting would lead your money into the hell.

    In my view, we have to know what season it is now. Market winter? It seems not. Market summer? you should still get cold time by time. So the market especially the gutless XAO would be cautious for its fate. I would get myself ready and if someone stop losses at big enough discount, I would buy in.

    ***
    Are you a good people when you use others' pain for your profit? I thought I am and I tell what I would like do openly. If you just want to burn the money I take is better than no one takes. If fortunately I get some profit it is my service fee for the desperate and consumable market warriors and if unfortunately I fail to get what I want I would get lessons to think how to be good businesslike market player.

    Have you heard I said I wanted to build my corners and run around my corners? Have you heard I said I would rather die than sell on the fire? Have you heard I claimed that I would not buy if no discount? I care about the seasons very much now and believe it is good time to buy between the winter and summer while the crowd is beaten by the market again and again.

    I hope the sale is big enough and hope it could be one as that XAO led the world into the assumed GFCII in last year.

    ***
    How to protect your asset not just protect your venture money? How to protect your money not your feeling? How to separate yourselves from the crowd? Crowd means popular.

    If you become popular because you could say and think as most of the market, you would be in trouble. If this trouble is big enough would hurt your relationship with your loves. It is more serious to hurt you than me. I just forced you to use your ignored list.

    ***
    Market could be very hazard area. Do you have ideas how we should behave in the hazard place? Do hope you and I could be protected when the flammable gas, liquid, dust, or combustion materials under somebodies' as*h***.

    Don't forget the simple lines you use for your dream pattern could trigger explosive in your backyard. Some of my friends lost not just money but families too. Don't use your lines and patterns to check your marriage.

    Very sadly to see XAO drop again. It is normal, eh? We don't believe that even after a loss experience in a decade? Could we just believe it after we are wiped away? Most of us dislike to hear any words about the losses as each gambler in Casino. Reality is always reality?

    ***
    In history a lot of messagers were killed after they had to tell truth, which were too bad for the people to sustain. In this sense all of upsetting and crying are understandable.

    However anyone who dared to kill the messagers for truth, would be killed sooner or later. Is there any logic link between the market playing with this historical phenomenon? If we are not stupid enough, it should be obvious!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7th Mar, 2012
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Propensity and human fallible actions

    Market is full of money and money drives people react quickly and usually much quicker than the market environments, overdone so that drive the market from one extreme to another one. Human sentiment is very hard to predict. Why are you so dismal and desperate or depressed today? It could be the result of the chemical reactions in your bodies!

    Where combustible or flammable events happen in the market, there are risks or chances for anyone in the market, which make market players crazy. In most circumstances of market, a possibility of their leaking or otherwise having the ability to produce what may be described as an explosive atmosphere in conjunction with the crowd extreme sentiment present in air.

    The examples are the IT crashes, houses market crash and GFC in US, EU debt crisis, and the worries of China tipping off and Resource bust in Australia. It is very true since the popularity of internet and googling. Any events could drive the market over-reaction.

    ***
    This is true in the market that there are so many different market players where it is normal to expect some explosive atmospheres occur in years if not in second. So the propensity of risks to create sparking or hot or cold crowd sentiment presents a possibility that the explosive atmospheres may be ignited with resultant in fire for money to burn.

    This hazard has been recognized for many hundreds of years - almost since the human to start the trading for necessities. The precautions taken to overcome this problem date back, in their basic inception, to the turn of the the modern market more than 100 years ago.

    ***
    A basic fact is there is no way in which risks to lose your shirts can be totally prevented in such environments, a wild field or war places.

    Where explosive events can occur as all human endeavour is fallible but it is necessary to develop our behaviors and the mental framework to a degree where such explosions are so rare to your own money that their risk is far outweighed by the benefits or chances for good return of the processes in which they may occur.

    Such balance is evident to some great market players, such as W. Buffett(even he is extremely lucky). Such imbalance was evident to some great speculators, such as Livermore. Market especially stockmarket are full of risks and the risks are hard to specified if you just react to what have happened.

    ***
    Where explosions are one constituent, have been seen as justifiable
    on the basis of human’s need for returns from their capital. It is true that the risks can be minimized as far as possible but only to a level consistent with the need to win some good returns. Accidents can still occur and popular in retail market players. There are 85% of them would be wiped out sooner or later.

    However it is wrong to say when a risk is identified by an incident nothing can be done. We always learn from these incidents if we want. Invariably the self-learning results in changes to our operating systems and behaviors especially. The changes make our mental framework better to deal with the potential risks when we try to get the return.

    Safety is in your hand if you don't give up to update your mental framework and know your limitation and the human errors you tend to make! Of course it could not be done in one day and a long term evolution.
     
  8. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    Replying only to the string "How do you protect yourselves?",
    my simplistic answer is "use a stop loss".

    (Having a system for identifying stocks to watch, and then a buy trigger is also useful. Having the number of shares bought and the initial stop loss giving you an initial risk which is in your comfort zone is also useful. Basically have a system in place and use it. Also if the whole market is trending down, there is nothing forcing you to keep trading. Its not a crime to earn interest on money that you have earmarked for the stockmarket.)
     
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It could be one tool to stop your human errors but it could not be used to stop the insanity and the corresponding losses.

    In my view it is illogical to think "stop losses" itself could bring in the profit. A insane mind who use random noises as valid signals could not use "stop loss" to save himself.

    Seriously saying I could not see anyone was insane and could make fortune by stopping the losses. 10 years was long time.

    ***
    How many people in this forum dare to say they use stopping-losses for their return in a million dollar, which is not a fortune actually in size.

    I have seen too many just made the losses and stopping losses until they could not sustain the losses. You have to make the money and try to get the profit for each of your transaction, each of which could happen in days, months, or years regularly. Each business could sell their over-supplied products to correct its errors sometimes.

    Do we hear any valid business uses stop-loss to save their business? Any business if sell on fire, means closing the door. Why don't we buy for profit through carefully analysis, deduction, judgments, and visionary decision? We are not not so good and then we pick up the "stop losses" as one way road to the hell.

    ***
    Yes if we have a system and a lot of tools which could make a lot of money, we do need the stopping losses as a extra tool. In some cases it could play the part to surprise us.

    Unfortunately if we just have some patterns, a few lines on the charts, and just have stopping losses for our market buying, holding, and selling, is it very different from the gamblers in Casino who record the numbers and bet according to the patterns of numbers?

    Seriously saying I don't think the discipline, analysis, vision, passion, and wisdom could be covered by "stopping losses!" How many stopped the losses in March 2011 and saw the train left the station without them and their losses become the ticket for their financial hell?

    ***
    Some people said people who keep to complain cannot win and people who have won never complain. Among the people who love the "stopping losses" just love complain sooner or later. No one would like to admit the failures except if we want to face ourselves.

    If you love "stopping losses" and still feel very cheerful, you should be new player in the market. It is too easy and too simple to buy for profit and stop the losses timely! In the market there are genius who are more skillful and clever than us. They lost their shirts and disappeared in the market.

    If you don't believe it you could go to Sharecafe to count how may people are still there. Just before 2006 the numbers of the people were surprisingly high! Why? All of them are very clever in trivial matters but stupid in strategic thinking(it included me too before 2004).

    ***
    Changes are painful. Change ourselves is nearly impossible. Do hope you could "stop losses" for your fortune! I could not believe it any more. I don't think I could do better in the old way than the genius who have lost their shirts completely!
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    GFC and EU related fear

    It was 3 years after GFC crashed everything down to ground. GFC itself seemed not enough, the ensuing two-year rollercoaster of European-related fear, the earthquake in Japan, the resource tax conflict, two speed economies, and the China slowing down, has been enough to keep nervous Aussie traders or investor in particular well away. XAO performed in the worst group globally.

    Aussie market players do expect some disasters. GFC and the ensuing events kept to tell them things could be worse. So for a quite long time XAO tended to down much more than up. Yes it is still too early to call an end to the crisis, but I do see “light at the end of the tunnel”.

    There are three elements to the European Crisis: the sovereign crisis, the banking crisis, and the recession:

    ***
    The sovereign crisis will be and only could be resolved by the “painful road to austerity.” No too many market players are convinced for it but what better options for EU countries.

    It was suggested no country's budget deficit could exceed 3% of GDP. If these rules would have been adhered to, there would not have been a European Crisis. It will take years to achieve the desired outcome, but the worst time of the crisis seemed pass by.

    Now European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) along with the upcoming European Stability Mechansim (ESM) and contributions from the IMF provide a total of E1.6 trillion.

    It is more than enough to fund the E1.1 trillion of existing principal and interest payments on the sovereign debt of the PIIGS for the next three years. Crash if happens usually happen very quickly.

    Could China tip off? It is still not very clear but XAO seems worry it for quite long time. Why did RBA keep the rate unchanged? In the global growth rate at 3.8%, it seems resource could not go down as people expect.

    ***
    To the banking crisis, the ECB is now providing “unlimited liquidity” to European banks at a level of huge quantitative easing. It just happened too late. It it would have happened in 2010, Aussie market players would have been a very happy time in the last two years.

    European banks have taken up more than E1 trillion in 1.0% three-year money, which would help them through liquidity difficulties and ultimately leading them to lend money into the economy.

    ***
    It is simply assumed as inevitable but resolution is also at hand. On the one hand, the initiatives of the ECB will go a long way to curb the depth and extent of the recession. On the other hand, the global economy as a whole is looking relatively firm. Lending conditions remain tight but should begin to ease as the central bank's stimulus makes its way through the economy. The Euro exchange rate is trading below its ten-year average and as such providing a boost for eurozone exports.

    The global economy is currently growing at just below its historical 3.8% trend, which happened after EC has rolled the global economies for 2 years. The US economy looking a lot better than it did six months ago(actually it was said last August that US economy was sick but not dying while XAO led the world rush into the assumed GFCII), and net Asian GDP growth appears to be bottoming at 6%.

    ***
    So how to protect yourself? Buying now has less risk than that at the peak before GFC, isn't it even I could not say it is the best time to buy.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Mar, 2012
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Quality control!

    All of us want to get some good money in the market. There are a lot of reasons(not patterns or lines only) internally and externally to fail us in the market.

    We need someways to qualify our portfolio for good enough return and only when the low enough cost for good enough qualities and discounts for qualified margin of safety, we could get deserved return.

    We all are hungry for money and this hungry could overwork on buying the shares and then produce negative consequences in the form of increased attrition.

    In the short time we could rush to inspect what we have got with the fears such the train leaves without us or the train crashes down when we are on board.

    Fears are the only true reason for us to see the truth if we work passionately and analytically. Fears force us to react rather than response, which make more human errors that we just could not detect before we lose our shirts in the ruins.

    ***
    What's the quality? It is the totality of characteristics of an entity that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or limited needs generally saying.

    When you buy a crap at pearl price or a pearl at the price double or triple you should pay, you get an entity that break down its ability to satisfy your profit needs.

    A critical aspect of quality management in the stock market is the necessity to manage your buying, holding, and selling to be sure you hold the qualified shares always in both price and its value.

    ***
    The quality in stock market is the discount of the possible realized price of the shares in your holding horizon. Value and intelligent speculation are two ways for the quality. Please note the quality is not price, not value, not economies, and not crowd sentiment, but the difference of the price and value(realized future price).

    Low quality is always a problem. Today's paper loss could not tell the quality in your holding horizon. Using the paper loss as exclusive criteria is childish behaviors, which is the self-cheating and is very dangerous to anyone in the market.

    ***
    All of us need to know some part of the quality, its management, and procedure for getting the qualified shares which under any conditions should be affordable individually.

    1. You have to make the customers, the crowd satisfies and happy for your buying, holding, and selling. You have to understand, manage, and serve them and facilitate their buying, holding, and selling. They look after feeling and you make their always better and then they pay what they like and you get for your good services.

    2. Don't inspect the performance of your shares everyday. The cost of preventing mistakes is always much less than the cost of correcting them. Losses are in your balance sheet? Why don't prevent it happen? Stopping-losses are necessary sometimes but it is terrible you use it as the excuses to prevent you buy the craps!

    3. You should act as quality manager. Yes you need to participate all of actions in your market playing but it is your responsibility to be sure your portfolio is safe and most of shares in it are qualified.

    ***
    Good manager need good knowledge bases and intelligent ways to do his job. Do you have the quality to manage your portfolio as a unsinkable sheep in the ocean?

    Why don't you spend less time to stop your human errors when it makes the loses for you? Do you still think you are superman with the great too, stopping losses?

    Don't forget if you make losses and the losses are too big for you to dare stopping, you could shorten your market life unexpectedly by you!

    ***
    Could I advise you and me: "don't buy if you wonder the quality and sell if quality is deteriorated?" Fail-safe is better than to hold the ashes of the money while you are successful to make losses and stop them.

    Do you understand "quality is planed in, not inspected in" or after you stop the unqualified actions and buying and holding. Don't get the senses about it? You have the risks to be wiped out by Mr Market.

    ***
    Have you heard benefit/cost analysis? As a market player, you have to learn some basis to run a business.

    The best practice for money is to avoid rework, which is necessary for higher productivity, lower costs, and increased your satisfaction.

    It is axiomatic of the quality management discipline that the benefits should outweigh the costs. Could you get your profit with the constant stopping losses after you are insane always?

    ***
    Do you know what's the cause-and-effect for your losses? If you make losses for your portfolio as a whole, something seriously wrong. We could not control environment but we do could control ourselves for good behavior.

    Have you found the causes in your mind which put you as loser always? You have a defect mind as anyone else. Everyone has limited gift from his birth. Unfortunately we are not trained to invert our minds in the market. So you have to reeducate yourselves if you want to play in the market at your will.

    Market is a trade-off place for profit or losses not a self-confirmed enjoyed pub. It applies to your mental framework updating too. We need to do in a slow but decisive way and the evolution will bring the wisdom and intelligence to us bit by bit.

    ***
    Don't tell anyone you are very experienced in the market if you just make losses and win a few times but could not keep the profit for your future. Still upset for my words? You need more time than me to update your mental framework.

    1. Make less human errors and stop human errors after bad consequences are different.

    2. Could you tell difference without matter you stop or don't stop the losses:

    2.1> Make losses always,
    2.2> make losses less than make profit but the total losses bigger than profit,
    2.3> make a lot of losses but the profit in total is much big than the losses in total.

    3. All of losses are personal special in the market. This specialty has the root common reason that we are human.

    4. Human normally makes errors and your buying, holding, and selling have to be tolerant for your human errors.

    5. 20% makes money and 80% loses money in the market. If you just use the popular matters and tools, you have 80% chances to lose your shirts. Don't risk yourself to be popular and it is your honor if you could be ignored by the popular crowd.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Mar, 2012
  12. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Two schizophrenics are on the roof of a building in a town in a middle of the night with an electric torch.
    The other points the light beam to the roof of another building and says:
    "Could you now walk on the light beam to the other building?"

    "Of course I could...but I am afraid you turn the light off when I am in the middle!"*
     
  13. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Are you turning on the torch, which was got from googling?

    I always concern about the risks that someone would walk on the light in straight lines or patterns made by the straight lines, from the borrowed torch.

    By the way, I am very happy you are little bit more optimistic about the sky now and it seems I could confuse you less in social English.

    All could be right sometimes even the reasons could be different.
     
  14. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Attached Files:

  15. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Still confused? Read the following instructions:

    1. Stop Loss: Click this button.
    2. Stop confusion: Click this to see the patterns!

    Monkeys can do let alone a man or woman! You just need a monitor for patterns.

    In IT booming time, it was said a Monkey, a few buttons, monitors, and the huge internet, formed a very advanced system, which could make a lot of money.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Mar, 2012
  16. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  17. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I have only one enemy in the market, myself, who sometimes is extremely stupid and insane.

    How much I could get from my office work per year? How could I allow $180,000 paper profit gone let alone $400,000 paper profit in IT bust?

    It was insane and I could not say I was not!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Mar, 2012