How long until the ASX 200 recovers?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Young Gun, 28th Oct, 2008.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Page 2 of 2
  1. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,303
    Location:
    NSW

    You hit the nail on the head. :cool:
     
    Tropo, 29th Oct, 2008
    #21
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    12,415
    Location:
    Sydney
    If it were easy - everyone would be doing it, and by definition, the "average" result would increase overall.

    But it's not easy - Tropo is referring to experienced traders who have no doubt spent quite a bit of time learning their craft and refining their technique. It's not a guarantee - they take risks (but manage them carefully) and run their own portfolios.

    How they do it is all written in books - you just have to learn how to use the information and learn how to manage your own weaknesses (understanding emotion and managing risks are some of the biggest challenges traders).

    Managing a portfolio worth millions of dollars of other people's money issued by a legally binding PDS (as opposed to a small personal trader or a large professional trader who is NOT running a managed investment scheme), is a rather different ballgame.
     
    Simon Hampel, 29th Oct, 2008
    #22
  3. try anything once

    try anything once Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    104
    Location:
    melb
    Look guys, I admit that I am a bit ignorant of the "science" of technical analysis. I know a bit about options and various options strategies - but I'm no expert by any means. I know that logical imperfections can develop in the marketplace and someone (arbitragers) make money by spotting these and their trades will correct them.

    Given the above - I would welcome any references to good books which explain what you are referring to - and I will buy and read them with an open mind.

    BUT - the logic of what you are saying just doesn't make any sense to me. If a small time private investor can trade in and out of the market (using the rules described a $80 book) and as a result deliver a performance consistently outperforming the market at large, why would not that same individual offer to do the same with OPM? (other people's money).

    Whether we are talking about hundreds of thousdands/millions of personal money or hundreds of millions of 3rd party investor's money, the techniques being used by the trader must surely still work. (the market is not that illiquid!)

    The need for a PDS is not an obstacle - it is simply a Disclosure document. Hell, your fund would be way more transparent than most if you were actually able to describe/disclose the method/technique you were actually using to make the money!!

    So I guess what I'm saying is that the fact that it is not easy may be a barrier for everyone doing it, but it is not a barrier for "expereinced traders" doing it with other people's money.

    I suspect the answer lies in your comment about risk. The upshot being that trading may result in outperformance if you get lucky, but to suggest it can be achieved consistently in the long term just defies all logic.

    Again - bring on the book references and I'll swat up!!:D
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 30th Oct, 2008
    try anything once, 30th Oct, 2008
    #23
  4. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,267
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    what about XPJ? its almost gorn out of business!
     
    crc_error, 30th Oct, 2008
    #24
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,303
    Location:
    NSW

    Search this forum and you’ll find enough references to good books.
    Why successful individual should deal with OPM???:confused:
    There are a lot of very successful private traders/investors, who are not interested in trading/investing on behalf of others (which is a pain in the ....)
    One of many ‘success stories’ is D. Guppy who consistently is beating the market few times over year in / year out. :cool:
    Successful trading/investing has nothing to do with luck, but with knowledge, discipline, persistence and hard work.
    Consistency is very much achievable, but this obvious fact is beyond perception of many people. :rolleyes:
     
    Tropo, 30th Oct, 2008
    #25
  6. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,410
    Location:
    Buderim
    LOL, very amusing but probably considered serious by some:D:D:D

    Cheers - Gordon
     
    Nodrog, 30th Oct, 2008
    #26
  7. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,267
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    looks like the october blues are over, with the DOW up again overnight sustaining its uptrend...

    I would say the coming months will be better, and we have now seen the worst of the falls..

    Anyway who has been entering the market on a regular basis, would be happy to have picked up some bargins!

    Dont follow the herd, follow the rich! like warren buffett! who is buying..

    All the panic murchants on this site will regret not using this period to buy these bargains in the coming months.. but who am I to say, just a ignorant poster on this site!
     
    crc_error, 1st Nov, 2008
    #27
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,303
    Location:
    NSW
    I would say the coming months will be better, and we have now seen the worst of the falls..

    Are you sure? :eek:
     
    Tropo, 1st Nov, 2008
    #28
  9. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,267
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    I'm not 100% sure, but either way I'm buying... I'm not gearing, so if the market falls further, I don't care.

    No one rings a bell at the bottom of the market!
     
    crc_error, 1st Nov, 2008
    #29
  10. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,303
    Location:
    NSW
    Amazing...
     
    Tropo, 1st Nov, 2008
    #30
  11. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,555
    Location:
    Sydney
    CRC

    You are not alone there, I was reading a report yesterday and large investors have already started picking good shares.

    Also, don't forget that the US elections are very close and a new president could bring confidence to the markets.

    cheers
     
    BillV, 1st Nov, 2008
    #31
  12. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    904
    Location:
    Brisbane, QLD
    I'm still on the sidelines at the moment, I am so tempted to get into the market though!

    However I'm not certain if the worst is over, and I think that whilst most have conceeded there is somewhat of a global recession at present, I think the data that has been released so far has been the mild and the worst data will be in Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009 which might unnerve a few investors. So I'm happy to sit tight for another month to wait to see how deep this rabbit hole goes.
     
    Chris C, 1st Nov, 2008
    #32
Page 2 of 2