There has been a bit of talk lately about creating an indexed portfolio. I suppose the trick in investing is to not only pick your shares, but also to pick your time. Indexing aims to alleviate the share pick, and holding forever aims to alleviate the time pick. Perhaps it is possible to improve on this a little? Lets say we hold a ETF like STW, which alleviates your share pick, and some simple technical analysis tool to assist with timing and risk management. I wonder if anyone has any trading back-testing software handy whether they could test the outcome of a simple system trading the STW exchange traded fund. It would be interesting to see the net return difference between the following: 1) Just buy & hold and never sell 2) Buy, sell when it drops 10% from it's previous high, buy when it jumps 5% from it's previous low 3) Maybe a simple Moving Average system - buy, sell when 30 day MA crosses down through a 150 day MA, buy when 30 day MA crosses up through 150 day MA Using something like this would (hopefully) keep you out during the big drops we have seen over the last few weeks, possibly at the expense of a little whipsawing along the way... Any comments/ideas welcome!