Join our investing community

In This Climate - Your Portfolio and Position

Discussion in 'Shares' started by archangelsupreme, 11th Oct, 2008.

  1. archangelsupreme

    archangelsupreme Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    7th Sep, 2007
    Posts:
    206
    Location:
    Australia
    For those who have the courage to reveal their buys/sells in this climate.

    1) Which shares are you currently holding and will continue to hold?

    2) Which shares are you eyeing as a buy and at which price?

    3) Which shares are you looking to offload from your portfolio?

    ---

    For me...

    1)

    Materials = BHP, RIO, Oz Minerals, Kagara and Atlas Iron
    Financials = Macquarie, NAB, ANZ, AXA
    Other = Sunland Group, Hastie Group, Harvey Norman, Caltex

    2) The materials look awfully cheap right now....definately looking to consolidate on my existing positions on BHP, RIO, OZL and KZL. Though I have been eyeing FMG (will probably snap at this if it drops below $2), MMX, MGX and MCC of late.

    In other sectors, have been keeping a close eye on VMG (have being keeping a very close eye on this for a long time...was about to buy in at $1.30 a couple weeks back and thought that it had reach the support level, but thankfully didn't because it's now at $0.80). Others include HFA Holdings and NDO Petroleum.

    3) While I do kick myself sometimes thinking how much i bought in vs. how much they are as of this week...(LOL, i had a look at my paper loss and it's not pretty...LOL)...i'm going to continue and hold.
     
  2. ilori

    ilori Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th May, 2007
    Posts:
    75
    Location:
    Mt Macedon, Vic
    Hi archangelsupreme,

    I have a range of 15 or so that are:
    a) strong dividend payers
    b) heavily sold off since highs of 2007
    c) passed a test of quality (a mix of fundamental, technical and subjective opinion)

    also, a few dollars on full-on specs, such as Centro (CER) and Bendigo Mining (BDG) - may blow up or they may give great growth - prefer to spend money on that than drinks or other consumables...

    Plan is to hold on for a couple of years and see where stand. A few might fail, but hopefully enough will show strong recoveries to justify it all. In meantime, there is dividend flow which is close to bank interest to give something while holding.

    When market recovers will probably change strategy and become more of a long term trader using rising trend.

    Biggest issue I run into almost daily is to stay the course and stick to the plan - frenzy of bad news, everyone is an expert. Have to ignore all that.

    I once heard that octogenerians were asked what their two greatest regrets in life were, top of their lists were:

    1. Caring what others think of you.
    2. Not taking enough chances.

    I don't what to have those two things at the top of my list when I'm in my 80s.

    Regards,
    Ilori
     
  3. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    archangelsupreme,

    1. UGL and I am buying more
    2. I am starting with BHP CBA, WBC, CER, current prices are ok for me
    3. None, I am starting to buy this week

    I like your selections but how did you come up with those particular ones?
    I am puzzled why you've left out the best banks CBA and WBC?

    Cheers
     
  4. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Ilori

    Do you have a list of the speculative stocks you think are worth buying?
    I am thinking of spending $20K on Centro but maybe I can spread it out on several companies.

    Cheers
     
  5. ilori

    ilori Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th May, 2007
    Posts:
    75
    Location:
    Mt Macedon, Vic
    ;)
    Hi Bill,

    I like the four big banks - heavily sold off but probably getting stronger market positions. Also four pillars policy, strong regulation, practically govt guarantee (I mean 'practical' in the sense that whether govt is legally obliged to or not, very very unlikely it would not stand aside and let a major bank fail).

    Of the big four, I personally rate ANZ and NAB below WBC/SGB and CBA. Everything ANZ has touched lately has turned to sh?t and they've been punished. NAB seems to have habit of tripping over (Homeside, Forex), now we have CDO exposure, CEO took blame for that, now other issues in news... wonder if more to come out.

    All above only my personal gut thoughts, do own research of course.

    Also like some of the property trusts, such as SGP, GPT, MCW, MOF, ILF, MGR, PBD (has cut dividend I think but seems to have potential). Depends what price get them at of course. Would be disappointed if had them prior to Oct. 2007, but if buying in now different story. As I understand it some of them are trading below NTA and it's sentiment driving them down.

    When look at the property trusts, things I include in analysis are:
    - debt level, what are refinance horizons?
    - do they actually own real property? (not so keen on the fund manager types)
    - where is the property? geographical spread? exposure to good/bad regions etc.
    - what type is it, how 'sticky' is it - eg. retirement villages, shops, offices, residential - how stable/necessary is the property?

    Again, just my thoughts... seriously, please do own research... I don't know if any of these companies will fall over at any moment.

    Regards,
    Ilori
     
  6. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Ilori

    I like them as well and it's shopping time for me, as of today.
    I am buying in gradually but I am not touching NAB or ANZ yet, in fact their troubles could bring some turbulence to the whole sector.

    Cheers
     
  7. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st May, 2007
    Posts:
    1,367
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
  8. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    CRC

    ok, you've bought early but how much have you lost during the turbulent times?

    By staying in cash I have preserved my capital and now have the ability to buy stocks at a discounted price.

    I am also not convinced that the problems are over so I am buying gradually.

    Cheers
     
  9. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st May, 2007
    Posts:
    1,367
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    BV, I sold out all my stock in Feb this year cause I purchased a IP back then. So most of my funds went into that.

    Then over the last month I have been buying back in, and almost bottom picked the couple stocks I have (not ASX200 stock).

    I purchased CBA on friday cause even if it wasn't the bottom, I feel it was very close.

    Now if you try to get it, you will pay 10%+ extra. yesterday most quality stocks were up 6%+ and today we should see a further 5% rally.

    So anytime last week if you were buying, you were getting discounted stock. No point trying to enter the paddock with all the other cows, you will only get trampled on.

    I'm not saying I didn't loose money, I did, and I think all of us did, but the trick is to get out, and then GET BACK IN at the right time.
     
  10. DaveJ

    DaveJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    13th Nov, 2005
    Posts:
    123
    I would wait a month before you count those chickens.... We have absolutely no confirmation of a bottom. A relief rally at the moment yes, but it is just as likely to be a bear-trap(before the next move down) as it is of being the next up-trend.

    To compare prices now with what they were 12mths ago and think they are good value is missing the point of this entire financial crisis.... The prices last year JUST WEREN'T REAL(or based on good fundamentals)!:eek::eek:

    But then there are two sides to every market...:rolleyes:

    Good luck

    P.S. I'm with Tropo.... 'Beer is good!':p
     
  11. Young Gun

    Young Gun Guest

    I bought 1,000 CBA, 1,000 ANZ & 1,000 BHP at the start of the month.

    They looked good for about a week, then the market crashed and my holdings were about 10% down in capital value last friday (feeling pretty happy at this stage :p).

    After yesterdays & todays efforts my new positions are now showing a small capital gain. I was planning to draw down on my margin loan and buy a further $100K of shares, but given how volatile the market is I'll be DCA'ing that money in over the next 12 months.

    Overall I'm very happy with what I paid and in the long run I'll be laughing.
     
  12. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st May, 2007
    Posts:
    1,367
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    Did you buy shares or a call option? I ask cause they all are 1000 units?
     
  13. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Apr, 2008
    Posts:
    1,327
    Location:
    Brisbane, QLD
    Why does everyone think the worst is over after two days of rallying???

    So far the only good news that has come out is news that relates to governments suggesting that they will do everything in their power to stop systemic failure... there definitely hasn't been any news of positive signs for any developed economies, and the bad news is only going to continue over the next couple of months as the data proves what many are now fearing.

    Sure many will say that "a recession is already being priced into the market" but I'd bet my bottom dollar on the days they get the data that backs the arguments that the DEVELOPED WORLD (not just the US) is sliding into recession the markets won't be upbeat about it...

    I think the stock market will be fairly violate for awhile, it may even find a new low if things take a turn for the worse...

    Current Position = Cash.

    Will look to enter the market in a couple of months.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th Oct, 2008
  14. Young Gun

    Young Gun Guest

    1,000 shares of each and I then wrote a call option over those shares...so a covered call.

    The worst isn't over but I'm hoping it's pretty bloody close! today will be a shocker and I'll be looking to bring forward some purchase's I'll check my watch list and buy 1,000 shares of whatever gets smashed the most!!!
     
  15. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jan, 2007
    Posts:
    679
    Location:
    Hobart
    Just curious how much brokerage you pay per trade? Do people try to keep the brokerage under 3%? 1.5%? Less?
     
  16. DaveJ

    DaveJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    13th Nov, 2005
    Posts:
    123
    On the big down days have you looked into buying back the calls at much less premium? Then on the big spikes write again??? With such a volatile market at the moment you should be able to cycle a written call at least twice a month...

    Just a thought
     
  17. Young Gun

    Young Gun Guest

    I'm on commsec so it's pretty cheap. about $30 a trade, so on a trade of about $20K thats ~0.15%.