Irrational exuberance 3/4/06

Alan,

If you don't mind me asking...What are you selling?

Shares, Managed Funds, LPTs, local or international holdings etc...

Everything or some of it? What is your defensive strategy?

MJK

 

Hi M.

Sorry.......I was simply referring to the trading approach taken by my NavraInvest MF investment. I'm not actually selling Units at this stage however I'll probably partly review that decision in the next 6-12 months when I'm likely to buy some more property.

 

Cheers Al,

So easy to misunderstand on an internet forum isnt it!

I rumbleings I think I'm hearing are that both Asia and the US are emerging from slumps and may be at the begining of their share market run. I dont see how the Australian market could slow down when these markets are hotting up.

Is this in anyway correct?

MJK

 

Is the OZ Market likely to keep on going up? I have no idea.

Sure it will be strongly influenced by US Markets but then I guess anything could happen there too.

There is the direction that can be predicted based on Market/Economic fundamentals but then we always seem to have so many 'out of the blue' events that have a huge influence too.

Earthquakes, terrorist attacks, Iran, Iraq, Korea, Israel, volcanoes, bird flu, oil supplies........plus add your own immediate 50 hitlist and there'll probably be something else anyway.

Hmmm......this is getting a bit depressing isn't it?

Suffice to say.........I have no idea.

Therefore I guess we just stay flexible, try and cover the downside and take advantage of the opportunites.

 

Michael
I am optimistic or we wouldn't be doing what we do. Like Alan, it is about protecting the downside and staying alive for next week, month, year, etc. One goal at the moment is to balance our property holdings with other financial assets.

I am a regular trader and sell most days. At the moment it can be difficult deciding when to sell, like with BHP's vertical chart. Yesterday I sold UGL, with greater than 5% profit in about 2 weeks. It closed higher again but I had no regrets. I still like this stock and will choose another entry point.

Last night on ABC news the commentator said that normally about 87% of countries have economic expansion and the rest are in recession. At the moment, they researched 100 countries and not one was in recession. This is quite an outstanding statistic and maybe provides some reason for optimism.

However, I want to be actively managing our assets for decades yet, and need to be very careful.

 

MJK,

I'm about to put $200K odd into the Platinum Asia fund. I've been saying this for a few months now, but I've worked through the process slowly with my FP's assistance and now just catching up on all the paperwork.

Its a bit of a bugger that its taken me so long. The Platinum Asia fund has returned 7.29% last month, and 48.73% for the last year. Here's a link to their performance details:

http://www.platinum.com.au/reports/web_all.pdf

I still think the whole region has a lot of long term upside given the changing demographics in China and the ripple effect this will have on all the downstream economies such as ours. I intend to ride this bull run for all its worth as it has the potential to set me up for life. I'll watch for signs of any bubbles emerging, but we're a long way off that yet IMHO. My diversification also gives me some protection.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Its taken about a week and a half - but I have sold most of my Navra Wholesale funds. As luck would have it, the units were sold last night , and now the market is down. Could not have timed it better (just lucky I guess) , as my unit value has creeped back above what I bought it for some 13 months ago.
I am putting half of my money into the US fund (so lets hope that in the next two or three days it takes for BT to buy the US fund units the dow goes down ).
Anyway, I am waiting for the Oz market to have a correction - IMHO it will do so very soon. Hence why I sold out - and will buy back in when the correction occurs. So I am doing a Navra on the Navra funds....so to speak.

 

Michael,

I'm dropping some into Platinum Asia also. It takes ages for the margin lenders to get the lodgements of security through when they are managed funds though!! I'm in the same boat. Ho hum, waiting, waiting. My new

Thanks for your reply,

MJK

 

Gees Perky,

Chrystal ball must be working well!

MJK

 

If you're looking at the Platinum Funds, check out the Platinum Japan fund as well. I don't believe Japan is part of the Plat Asia fund and japan is one of the largest, if not the largest, economies in the region. It's returned 19.67% over 6 months and 43.34% over the year for me.

 

Risky, but hopefully worth it
Last year in May we had a 8% or so correction. IMHO it may happen again. The recent rise of BHP is crazy, checking the chart and RSI it appears well overbought. Once BHP's price dips, the market will follow.
But I could be wrong too !!

 

ASX200 up 1.1% today so far. Irrational? I'm beginning to think so...

 

Perky must be getting nervous... Its a big call to dollar cost trade a rising market! Steve himself mentions this strategy is sub-optimal in that environment.

I think you're right though, it might come off a bit. But I wouldn't think we'll see 5,000 again for the ASX200. I still reckon 6,000 is fair value and that we might see that level this year. But you all know I'm the Bull who's backing his China shop!

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Lol, only a little.
I am putting 100k into the Platinum Asia as well Michael, as you know 40% returns are not bad (if they continue ). I still think its only days away until we have our correction here on the ASX200....time will tell.....

 

Whaddaya reckon? 3 days? 10 days? 50 days? 100 days? 5,000 days?

Nice sentence structuring there Perky! You should be marketing managed funds.

Mark

 

OK I will bite. Early next month.

 

Sorry Michael but I could not give you an answer to your question, because I was on holiday (I came back 3 days ago).
But at the time you asked, my level was at 5311/19/26
.

 

Well Perky,

Looks like you got your correction!

But you better be quick.

MJK

 

MJK,

Current weakness in the market has nothing to do (so far) with the correction. Unless, every sell off or pull back you are calling correction.
Market may become more volatile but it does not mean that it's just about to crash....
If XJO will move below 4800 level, you may start worry....but still NOT seriously
Until than enjoy cold beer and below info...

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Long Liquidation Hits Gold
The precious metals complex suffered a sharp loss on Monday in New York, led by long liquidation and a downturn in the energy markets while the dollar made gains against the euro.
The sell-off in gold began overnight during the European session when heavy fund selling and long liquidation took gold lower, then moved into the Comex session where June opened below $700 an ounce. "The drivers of this move included a slight rise of the U.S. dollar against the euro currency, a fall in the crude oil prices and the base metal weakness," a trader said. "After Comex opening, the worse-then-expected U.S. economic data did not allow the metal to retest the $700 level as the sell off in the U.S. dollar triggered by the news was short lived."

A trader from Mitsubishi Corp. said rumors abounded during trading that gigantic losses from various banks and trade houses were rampant.

"Most (rumors) were variations on large losses linked to LME trading and hedge funds," the traders said.
George Gero of RBC Capital Markets Global Futures said every sell-stop was elected when the gold market opened.
After that drop-off, Gero said traders then took a second look at the dollar and energy markets.
He added that about 100,000 contracts were traded on Monday and if open interest does not drop by about 20,000 on Tuesday, then a large rally may be seen next week. The losses in gold also spilled into the silver market, where the most-active July contract settled 90 cents lower at $13.335 an ounce.

The contract dipped to a low of $13.050 during the session but regained some ground amid bargain hunter buying.

 

You're right Tropo but I don't think Perky really is looking for a 4800 was he ?

Beer sounds nice.

Actually rereading his post -8% might have been optimistic.

MJK