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Trading It is really cold!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 4th May, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Stock market is the last wild field of human kind in this modern world.

    Sometimes, it is sunny and seems everyone could get what he wants at will and sometimes it is so noisy the wind was with huge casualties.

    Since last year it seems have been a perpetual thing, not a great deal of relief from it whether you were inside, outside or anywhere else in the stock market.

    Could I forget the cold when the sun comes back to this wild field?

    ***
    The retail traders have run away and forums of the stock market have become silent as ghost towns.

    It was normal to see people died financially in these days since GFC. It was challenge to be survival in this wild field to retail traders let alone prosperous.

    How do you feel now?

    I feel cold to see the ruins in the stock market, have no idea how long the storm would last exactly, and warn me before I chase the chances I would calculate the risks.

    ***
    Trading itself should not be anyone's goal but a facility to build your financial base and future. Traders including me tend to turn a facility as their goals or use some assertions as their flags for their own insanity.

    Do you believe someone is not insane if they burn their money on fire out of the stock market? No? you are insane. However in the stock market, most of traders just find the ways to rationalize their insane burning of the money.

    When I check each of my transactions of shares in last year, I could not help but admit I was really insane. I was never so self-blaming and self-defamation. I was never so shocked by the white and black.

    ***
    For too long time I worked hard to figure out a new idea which I believed would be good and put all of myself in.

    I never feel so devastated not just because of the profit I failed to lock but the reality that I could be driven so hard by my own feeling and ignore the reality.

    The key is long time ago I chased the things which has real meaning and defined benefit, where you put more time and efforts you get more benefit.

    ***
    Stock market is a wild field, where you can work hard for nothing or even worse the unaffordable losses. I never realized it until last year. Now I know it deeply but another assertion I believe is market don't reward technicians and scientific ways:

    1. you are wrong? game is over and your chip will be taken away
    2. you are right? Game is not over. Would you collect your reward? no/yes? Good luck or good judgment are needed!

    Wrong way is a slide for your money from 100% to 50%, 30%, 1%, or zero depending on your skills to stop the losses. Reward road is that to the top with huge gravity forces, storm, crash, or a lot of risky matters.

    Trading naturally have more chances to be the defeating road. And most of time to most of traders and investors are true.

    ***
    The judge follows very simple rules. The simplicity is beauty, needs great wisdom and intelligence for the reward, hard to be at even, and then if you make simple mistake you pay the cost you put on the table.

    These assertions are not new but few really want to take care about them. It is cruel to recognize this simplicity itself. All of us tend to take the road which requires the least efforts.

    Seriously saying most of traders including me are driven by what they want rather than what they could get. Who don't want to get $10 millions in bank and use it for their goodness or badness?

    ***
    The fact is you just could not get what you should not get without matter how you really want and try!

    You have to focus on what you could get!

    What could you get now from the stock market and do you know what you could get?

    ***
    If last year I could let the paper profit turned beck into ashes, I have to admit I don't really know what I could get from the stock market so far.

    I do want to put more time and efforts to know what I could get even I do feel the extreme difficulties which need the change of behavior and disposition first and conscious procedures for safety.

    Seriously saying I feel more unsure for the reward while I get my mind better for what I have done so far. It devastates me sometimes but also cheers me up. We often to cheat ourselves honestly since we believes wrong things.

    Anyway, I would focus on my English Listening as I planed to do. What next? I am not very clear but I know I need to know what I could get for each transaction sooner or later.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th May, 2012
  2. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: 17th Sep, 2016
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It is a topic most of traders are interested in. I was interested in it a few years ago and still interested in but the part of it I am interested in have been changed greatly.

    If you are a trader and lose the money year after year, you are an idiot somewhat. If you are an idiot somewhat, you have to know it. Otherwise you are an hopeless idiot. If you are an hopeless idiot, you are an idiot without matter you are the "Idiot of the year" or not.

    It seems few really know: idiot is idiot and idiots care about the order of the idiot list. Who would burn the money? Idiots! If you are idiots, is it really matter who is the idiot of year?

    Are you a big or little idiot? If it is important to you, you are an idiot! Is it right, Tropo? Haha! Why don't write down some wise words from your views about this YouTube?

    ***
    RBA has signalled it were overly optimistic in its forecasting marginally lower growth of 3 per cent over 2012 and 2013(see RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy released today).

    RBA does say that

    1. it only sees the economy growing by about 3 per cent over 2012 and 2013 rather than 3.5 per cent growth in 2012 and up to 4 per cent in 2013.
    2. It has lowered its expectation of the export growth and residential building activity.
    3. low inflation

    ***
    Inflation rate is low.

    1. The underlying inflation excluding the impact of the carbon tax at just 2 per cent in 2012 and that is down from 2.5 per cent earlier and of course.
    2. The sharp decline in inflation came down in CPI to 1.6 per cent below the 2 to 3 per cent comfort band .

    ***
    There are signs for the unemployment rate to rise?

    1. RBA has not seen the jobless would up as going.
    2. It is currently 5.2 per cent.
    3. Employment growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term
    4. The impact of the high Australian dollar as a key pressure.
    5. In the near term, labour shedding across a range of industries outside of the mining sector could accelerate as the market is to adjust to the high exchange rate, weaknesses in the property market, the effects of weaker public demand, and debt reduction.

    ***
    It is sluggish in housing sector as RBA noticed. Market has worried for a serious downturn in Australia economies since April 2011.

    1. It was a subdued market and housing starts down by 1.1 per cent this week
    2. A number of factors to really kick start, to really kick start the market and the subdue could last sometimes.
    3. RBA has no expectations of any sort of significant slump just yet.

    ***
    The crisis in Europe is perhaps part of economies subdues.

    1. Europe remains the most significant external risk to its outlook.
    2. RBA could not seen any chance that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe intensifies could derail the global economy.

    There has been a lot of optimism just in recent months until Spain came along and the bulls certainly aren't running with Spain at the moment. There were a flight from risk in global capital markets. There will be marked deterioration in credit conditions and confidence if EU worst.

    EU would have an impact in Asia, that would have an impact on the mining boom pipeline, and then optimism and pessimism would stay in tandem of the crowd sentiment.

    Is it market in its bottom? I am not sure now but it seemed the worst happened in Aug - Oct 2011 when XAO led the way into an imaged GFC II.

    ***
    In this week, my brain seemed struggle to beak down a very big huddle in my English Listening.

    One day I could understand nearly all what is talking about in ABC radio and next day I just get lost. It is a good sign since my brain started to react to the input form my ear more sensitively and reintegrate itself. However it did rippled my mood very much.

    I still could not read the transcript loudly by following exactly the speed at which the radio reporters read it out. However it could be a benchmark for my efforts in my English Listening and open the door to enhance my Spoken English in next stage.

    ***
    Some stages need for me to go through if I want to make English to be one as my mother language.

    I have just changed to read the transcript quietly, turned to read at low volume, and loudly, at the speed the reporter read it out. I need to do an easy part first, let the hard part become easy part, and then get what I want in my English Listening and Speaking.

    What is the easy and trustful buying for a profit? To get that far what should I do first... It is question I just could not forget for answer.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th May, 2012
  4. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Another sign of madness, inability to tell the difference between fantasy and reality...
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What's my fantasy and reality in your eyes in stock market? What's your reality?

    Why do you say there was inability to tell the difference?

    The mad call mad as the idiot call idiot, do you agree?

    Are you a loser or winner? If you are a loser is it mad to call others mad?

    If you could not answer questions properly, are you an idiot or mad?

    ***
    Last year I burnt my paper profit into ashes.

    Was I mad or idiotic? Definitely and all of the traders and investors do be idiotic times by times. You make mistakes one after another, which is normal in stock market by the traders but it is mad and idiotic in my view.

    Don't self-cheat and make your mistakes are honest errors in stock market.

    ***
    Is it fantasy if you want to be less mad or idiotic in the stock market? It is a place where everyone can be crazy, insane, greedy, and fearful.

    I tried hard not accept it as the reality but now it is my belief.

    I admitted my insane in last year, which was my reality. I could not find any excuses to pretend I was not. I don't want to be self-cheating anymore as most of traders did in last decade.

    If you are insane, you have to know it and change your behavior from insanity!

    ***
    How to avoid deep insanity in the stock market? Why most of traders fail to be not insane when they should hold their consciousness for their own safety?

    Environment in the stock market is every changed and usually very drastic. Few have good enough mental frame work to deal with the change. In most of cases traders tend to use their feeling to get their assertions and judgment.

    1. I just finished my tax return this weak.
    2. At very beginning I guess I would have about income from my rental and share tradings for about $45,000.
    3. However after working out the detail, I just get $35,000 losses since a lot of my profit are from capital gain from the shares which had been held more than one year.

    ***
    I do know we just could not trust the feelings for long time but in reality I do make judgment from the feeling rather than the hard fact or calculated reality.

    We always make honest mistakes from our true feelings and guess work.

    It is a very bad habit to guess and work based on guess. If I work on guess in the stock market even I have tried very hard not to do do. We always tend to go the least effort way and then it becomes normal losses are normal among the traders.

    ***
    Don't want to set up myself as a invulnerable wise character in the stock market. Do believe I have to put the surgeon knife on the tumors in my mental framework and then I could get it work for me.

    Don't write your posts for self-coloring and idiotic-madness-calling on others. We are very fragile naturally and let your post generate the material for your last defensive line for the raining days.

    It is useless for your mental framework but dig out the hole for your future. Do hope I could get what I want from this raining days, the wisdom. Actually pondering is a very lonely process and few could be your comrades among the traders.

    ***
    Don't forget how successful you could trade in a few days is not very important but get big bond-type assets after a decade is critical, which would give your the choices to choose the life options without worrying.

    Seriously saying if I could lock my $400,000 paper profit in 2000 into bond type asset, or I could lock my $180,000 paper profit last year, I would have more room to study the stock market.

    However by that times I didn't have this concept into my blood and bones. I was driven by the dreamed fortune rather than a calculated rolling of snow balls. It was not just simply a matter I was idiotic or mad but my disposition.

    ***
    When people call for the flag of "stop losses," they just think they can do so in time. It could be done theoretically and when your mind is in balance. However in the stock market most of traders just could not get balanced when they should.

    Money once is burnt on the fire, would be the load for your practice in the stock market. Don't take the unaffordable losses and do lock the significant paper profit always. Get the mind balanced rather than extreme.

    We are not fail because low IQ but we fail we always make some very basic logic mistakes in the stock market. Human could evolve to its stage so far not because its strength, speed, reaction, but its imagination and intelligence.

    ***
    Be happy to be called as a mad or idiot if you take them as triggers to check your own enemies out! I appreciate Livermore very much for his skills and guts but I did feel he was inferior strategically.

    He was a big plunger then and I was a little one. Plungers if not lucky must be in the hell at last since no any other place could stop them to plunge. Great needs chances at the ages very young to drop them into the road, the gift to lock the reward if big enough, and restart for a new height.

    Most of traders have no this kind of big chances if they are in the stock market at their 40s or later. They tend to use the stock market as their quick money generators. It is not a gift but a bomb in the hands whose disposition is wrong to the stock market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 5th May, 2012
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Give your understanding in your words otherwise how could you ponder what is good to you or bad to you? Trust me if you fail it is your own problem in the stock market.

    We don't need to please or hate anyone else in the stock market and its forums. Don't be shamed you would make mistakes and show your biases, which is the process to correct them. You are not mad but you don't know how to educate yourself. You don't want to change and then the evaluation to changes would be less valuable.

    It is a human error if you copy and paste but never ponder with conditions and contexts, and I believe you are clever but waste your IQ. Let you and me ascend and mature, could we?

    ***
    Why cut off your choice and mine? Haha. Why don't appreciate my progress in English if you are really a good teacher?

    Did you find I could control or moderate my mood or emotion more easily while I try to master the English? Do you know why? Mental framework is based on our language skills and while I improve my English and target it to the stock market, it takes its effects very positively.

    Haha, life is good while we work on dance for our direct and indirect goals. But hold on! What is your goals? Have you calculated your goal for your touch?

    ***
    Human tends to be over-confident on himself. He tends to use his ideologies and ideas to govern others' activities based on his own interests. He is always in paradox for what he should do and others do and tend to force others to accept his biases.

    In the stock market, you can use any channels to get your intelligence but you have to take your leadership for your future and refuse unlawful and biases from any people at anywhere.

    To be fair for yourself and others, you have to know it is wrong to stigma anyone else but yourself and would damage yourself in the stock market. No one would lose shirts since you approve or disapprove for their market practice.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th May, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Who will guard the guardians?

    In forums, someone tend to act as guardians by provoking, bullying, and put sigmas on the people who hold the ideas different from them.

    They appear as the guardians even they never could get any good enough profit for any long enough time.

    If you are serious about your market practice, you have to ask a question:

    Who will guard the guardians?

    ***
    Internet gives all of genius and bums the right to get into the world of an explosion of talent, creativity and diversity. You can take the popular ideas but still could not get the profit in the stock market.

    You need your own brain to be selective for your judgment and decision and the desire to take the responsibilities for what you cheer or cry for! You have to know what is worth to guard!

    Most of traders don't have the capability to do any abstraction and integration. They even could not form their own minds to find the chances and avoid the risks. They follow the trends and winds and then they trade themselves in.

    ***
    You have to be an elite in the stock market sooner or later if you want to enjoy what you do in the stock market for years or decades.

    Just listen a English audio file about democracy and leadership. I fully agree that democracy without great leadership would be doomed as you watch YouTube but always fail to sort out your own mind to lead yourself forward.

    Do you know even Ancient Athenian democracy ran on great leadership, but its participatory nature generated chaos?

    ***
    We need good ideas so you have to filter out the bad ones rather than take one idea after another just for the ideas!

    Ideas themselves cannot be properly aggregated into a unitary authority in your mind, they cannot be articulated without your leadership; Leadership need the elite brain. Do you have this kind of elite brain for your practice in the stock market?

    A mental framework should be in your brain to get the leadership, plan for your goals, and filter the rubbishes away! If you want to get guardians in your brain for yourself you have to guard your guardian!

    ***
    Sooner or later in the stock market, if you don't want to be losers forever, you have to learn when and where you should say:

    “If you still don’t like it, that’s okay; that’s why I’m boss. I simply know better than you do”.

    In the stock market, if you could buy for margin of safety, lock the profit when the crowd is euphoric, and have great balance on bond- and stock-type asset, it is the time you should say so.

    You have elites in your brain. You would like to take the lead and responsibilities. You have a trustful mental framework. If so why don't say so!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7th May, 2012
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Internet and populist's view

    ***
    Leadership is the capability ‘to fork the project.’ It is true in the workshops, offices, and the stock market. The ultimate task in the life and the stock market, is to solve the paradox and dilemma about chances and risks.

    Out of the vast diversity of views in the stock market, it must converge on some unitary will for what you buy, hold, and sell. And with or without the internet or YouTube, converging towards these decisions remains as problematic and promising as ever. The question at the bottom is, can we get the elites we need in our minds?

    Alas I have no panaceas to offer but do believe we need to update our out-of-date mental framework. To get this job done we have to know how we govern ourselves, which is an ancient and tragic part of the human history personally and collectively.

    ***
    It is very cold for traders now. The surmounted losses and populist's views in internet and medias have paralyzed their capability to judge.

    The real-time news and irresponsible words from remote corners irritate them and could not let them sit down to ponder any issues in the stock market deeply enough. Less and less people have the desire to write their own words with vision and passion. Nearly all of traders google the news for the straws and YouTube become their basic R/D tools for their judgment.

    What's internet? It is a huge library with all of fair or biased opinions on everything. While these opinions drop into the shoes of no brains, simple assertions and put others in stigma becomes popular.

    ***
    Traders' minds could be shaped by 20 consecutive comments they read on their latest opinion piece. Sentiment can let everyone believed we were moving into GFCII and XAO, the exchange of one of the best economies in this world, could lead the way into the imaged GFCII.

    The tendency to shape our opinions based on what we see and hear directly around us is the monopoly around every corner of the stock markets globally. We tend to be biased in favour of the here and now and over-discount the longer view. In this respect the instantaneous nature of technology does us no favours but drive us into greater madness and insanity.

    There are plenty of tricky problems in the stock market. The traders have been divided between the educated and the uneducated but they all make mistakes in a predictable way. There are a series of cognitive biases to account for why we got simple problems wrong and lose the shirt in the stock market.

    ***
    Have you played roulette before. Let's see what happened among the gamblers.

    It is common for someone to see a run of red on a roulette table and put their chips on black for the next spin of the wheel. This is a mistaken judgement. Every spin of the wheel on the roulette table is an independent event and the table has no memory.

    Our mistake is to read a deeper significance into the sequence of events we have just witnessed. We assume that our immediate experience plays into the universal odds of where red and black balance out over time.

    ***
    In other words we tend to be near-sighted. We focus on what’s immediately available and we miss the quieter logic and big picture.

    We all need some introspection! Solving the problem was about asking the right questions and seeking out the unexpected. “The side that learns fastest is the side that wins”.

    Could you learn fast? I really want but I don't believe I could get what I want in short term. My brain is that that would put me into unaffordable losses if I don't update it.

    ***
    In the end, we must be responsible for setting the right expectations around media in the stock market. It helps us with the little nudges towards knowledge. But our best answers still take time. They come from the long arcs of history not the short term flickers in the news cycle.

    You can leave my talk feeling gloomy about the state of stock market. It is scary to imagine the stock market ruled by collective cognitive bias. We are all susceptible to mistake and error, but once they are pointed out to us far fewer of us make the same mistake twice.

    Could we ponder on our mistake and don't let the mistakes repeat? Yes if they are repeated you are insane and hopeless in the stock market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7th May, 2012
  10. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    here's a new approach.

    wdongli please stop posting on these forums. You have effectively killed them.
     
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Haha, is it true if "they" or we could make money in the stock market? If words can kill anyone, he should have some fatal tumors in his mind already.

    Usually if we win out, we would be much more tolerable to the words, bad or good. Sometimes I just feel not very good and any distasteful words would kill me, which is normal!

    If anyone is in the ruins after GFC and doesn't want to get his own lessons, please don't read my words. I could not give your the consolation you want or the words to legalize the desire of quick money!

    ***
    In my view it is not the words but his tumors and dismal sentiment kill him. It is my mistakes to kill me not anyone else since Mr Market doesn't tolerate any tiny mistakes at wrong time and places.

    I understand your call since I had been upset by words just not too long before. However money is our own money and if we lose the money killing-words-themselves could not save you. Market is cruel and if I could not sustain the pressure from the words, I would be the loser definitely.

    If anyone disagree with my points he can write his counter-arguments so that we can turn to be adult in the stock market together. Naturally we come to the market as market baby with the hopes of genius.

    ***
    I prefer to kill a man in words in this forum rather than to see he is killed in the stock market financially! If a man can not survival in my words how he can be survival in the stock market?

    All we expect consolation, understanding, and sharing in our social life but there are different meaning of consolation, understanding and sharing in the stock market. What could healthily give us the consolation, understanding, and sharing in the stock market?

    It is painful to grow up in the stock market. If you really could not sustain the pains from my posts, skip over my posts until you could sustain your pains. Sometimes I just skipped over some posts. It is a necessary discipline we have to hold.

    ***
    I suggest we go around to all of forums about stock market. Few posters could be seen even in IT boom time all burst they hold the future.

    Seriously saying it is no my fault if anyone have not desire to write. It is really cold and there have been too many losers, who just have the losing experiences since IT bust and losers tend to be dumb.

    It was a decade genius and bums both lost their shirts. Traders in XAO just feel terribly bad which shew it rushed into the imaged GFC II in last August.

    ***
    I feel sympathy for anyone who lost their shirts and work hard to fix my own problems but it is too heavy for me to think it was my fault if anyone was killed in the stock market and became dumb.

    Modern education system has made too many wonks who just could not use their brains and see the words they dislike to see once they are in the stock market. No brains, no future, and be killed, which is the logic of the stock market.

    Only one rule for us to post is don't provoke personally. I have biases, you have biases, and all of us have biases. Each of us have to know our own biases and get less biases. Before we blame anyone else we should check ourselves and fix our own biases first.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th May, 2012
  12. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    You hurt me, eh?

    "You hurt me!" one guy cried. "What? How could I?" the guy who was accused, responded in defense.

    "Your words were too cruel to kill everyone here?" said the accuser.

    "It sounds as a series of exploded nuclei bombs, isn't it?" the alleged killer said to himself, quite confused, and wondered what this world was.

    ***
    People are frustrated, very deep frustrated, and very easy to be angry to anything which could bash their hopes to get out of the ruins.

    Without matter how good or bad Australia economies, all of bad matters are magnified by the depressed warriors. The reality is very cruel since IT bust. Their hopes just burst into pieces one after another.

    The crowd needs the big cake in the sky for hopes. It seems a time without hope to let their lost shirts back. If any stir around the world, the traders would run into their cave and surrender their efforts to coming back.

    ***
    I was rolled up and down by the stock market too. Fortunately I started my mind updating since 2004.

    Unfortunately the last and most tough part of these generations of the retail traders since IT bust would say bye bye to the stock market. They just could not get what they want and could not sustain the unaffordable losses.

    They are not just fail to stop losses but they fail to stop losing their shirts. They have lost their guts.

    ***
    They have being lost hope that these crises will have an end. They didn't want to admit this reality since they believe they have got a lot of experiences, which are some losing patterns but not the causes.

    The reality told them a fact that the things could be worse and much worst than their expectation. And while it doesn't give any hope to them, they have no future here, there, and anywhere in the stock market. In this sense, conscious words on the cruel reality do kill the people cruelly!

    Unfortunately they just could not get the gut to take the pills and no words can save them if they don't take steps to cure the termination diseases in their brains! They're in a hole and they only can get out by quitting their gambling in the stock market.

    ***
    Its my lesson that it is extremely hard for warriors to change their behaviors and disposition, which are configured by their biases, knowledge, expectation, calculation, and the ways they react or response to the external world.

    I am not spread the salts on the cuts of the losers but I am focus on to do everything I could do to make my mind updated. It is necessary for anyone who has not the gifts to make the profit in the stock market.

    Why do we chase the easy money without enough protection? Why couldn't we find the gold ahead before the crowd of robs stampede to it? Why are we fearful we would miss the last train? Why do we put unaffordable money for a 85% failed gambling?

    ***
    I have my own and only enemy, myself, and all of the words are to beat it down with the hope in my blood and cells there are full of wisdom and intelligence some day later.

    Without matter whom we are, it is obvious that we don't really have a very good understanding what stock market is, we don't have these very well controlled learning course for us to response consciously, we need to know about what precisely the long term effects of say suffering one or two or more concussions of crashes is in the stock market.

    I could disagree with anyone's words but I will not curse others for my failures. If I would be killed in the stock market, it is me who would load and trigger the gun at my head!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th May, 2012