Trading It should be surprised...

Market is full of surprises, which makes the crowd cries and cheers. Are you in constant, often, a few of, seldom, or not at all surprised in the market? Should a commander who leads his army to win in the war constantly and finally, be in constant, often, a few of, seldom, or not at all surprised? Why do you so emotionally with tears happily or hopelessly?

Most of traders tend to rationalize their illogical assertion with all they could get. Trading can make money but if the traders are in constant surprises and have to stop this and that in the bad surprises, it should be predicable what they could get. It is insane and it is the dream to repeat doing the thing as before but expect different results.

When you ask any adults matured mentally(don't ask me if you thought I am insane and idiotic), they would agree what Einstein's words about insanity, repeating the same way to do things or behave, and of course the consequences of the insanity.

Sorry a wrong key clicked again and words lost.

 

Profit, digest, sense, and reason

Profit when well digested is nothing but good sense and reason.
Loss could be made by anything.

Logic need good plan to use three basic elements under some complicated conditions:

1. AND:
for example if you want to make profit, you need "affordable capital" AND "good buying."

Good sense AND reason

2. OR:
for example you can win OR lose in the market

TRUE or FALSE

Profit OR loss

stop profit OR stop loss

3. NOT:

for example if you do NOT lock a big paper profit, you are a idiot!

NOT buy at peak
NOT sell on fire

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Scenario checking for judge, selection, and decision:

With proper use:
If
...
else if
...
else if
...
else
...
end of if

to cover all of possible scenarios or invert to what you feel or guess.

If losing 3%
...
else if losing 10%
...

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Location, location, and location(in stock market, it is price)

Timer

Counter

Controller or hub of control

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Logic -> price with good enough discount for buying; price with high premium for selling; flat or more discount for holding.

If basic logic could not be guaranteed, what's the complicated system for? Make and then stop losses.

Logic needs the order and sequence right sometime too. Timing, sequences, and place are the matters you have to think about even a lot of genius tell us they are impossible to know.

Do you miss any input for your logic output calculation? Do you know all of feedback for the complicated logic calculation? If you could not get all of inputs or feedback for your logic calculation, how could you protect the logic output are good for your profit?

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Is it insane if you don't do any logic calculation or don't know what logic calculation will do by your advanced system?

Just read the words, "we are never so lost that we cannot be found" which as a flash into my mind. We lost not just the money but we lost our minds first in the last decade. We want to get the quick and easy money but lost the sense that money is the resources which need the efforts to accumulate.

Market has its rules and principles which requires special disciplines, analytical skills, profitable goals, procedures and plan to get the goals, guts to brace the risks but never let the risks have chances to beat you down.

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Don't use any excuses to rationalize your insanity! You could ignore anything but if you buy anything which could ruin you, you would be wiped out by Mr. Market, which you could not ignore.

What if I could get a appropriate mental framework after I post thousands of self-replied posts? What if I just post to cheer for myself and let others feeling better?

I don't want to challenge anyone's feeling and provoke anyone personally, but if you do want to be felt provoked I could not save you! Go your way carefully. Find the items to go your way successfully.

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It is the war you fight against yourself, a people who is full of primary instincts.

If you want to win up you don't need to beat the market and anyone else down but yourself.

If any lesson I have got last year, it is all!

 

Another surprise?

Just a few days ago, the reduction of inflation rate and the unexpected trade deficit in China, the debt swap in Greece, and US economies, resulted in some shivering(not shocking) in Australian stock market.

Medias talked about the depressed economic prospect for Australian economies in 2013. People here stopped the bullish view about XAO and stopping losses were the subject or concerns.

Even we all want to get profit tomorrow from what we bough today, it seems jitters in market tend to stop us in surprise. Australia has followed the worst stock market in this world to push XAO down to its knee. The depressed sentiment of the crowd had successful let XAO in leading the world into the assumed GFCII crash.

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XAO has no gut to follow US. Actually a lot Aussies do believe the systems in US would fail completely. However they fail to understand an empire need time to build up and also need the time to get them out of the sight, let alone it was evident US could make its history from the cycled economies and world.

XAO has become a house where all of its inhabitants are still very fearful. If market acts as its usual business, it would make chances to surprised these fearful crown in some ways. What can surprise the crowd? I feel no one would be surprised if tomorrow Australia houses would be devalued 50%(improbable but that was the crowd expected) and China would tip off and stop its modernization efforts.

Australia is a peaceful, rich, or at least no one worries about his mouth. Most of them could not understand a 1.5 billions of population has how big inertia of mass to move in one direction. I thought I know what China is and where it would go. I just want to be there if China's economies goes up again.

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Today XAO went back to 4370 around, which is not too far from 3850 which was the mark when it rushed into the imaginary GFCII crash. No worries mate! But if I could buy dirty-cheap I would sell to rebalance my portfolio for safe profit.

 

Get along without being critical of what other believe!

Can’t we just get along without being critical of what others believe?

It seems very hard in our offices. If you are not the leaders you have to be the team players since you have to work for team goals which is why you are paid.

It seems very hard too in any forum, market or not market one.

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Forum tends to become the place to limit the people's thought into groups.

All cheer for one thing or one assertion or cry for the unavoidable hopeless future. However it is dead way in the market. How many comrades in IT booming and busts are still in the market. Groups would be wiped out by one after another in the market.

You have to be self-reliant, which is known by ones of the groups. However they could not understand how to use this concept in market.

Do you know self-reliant needs independent thinking and action? Do you thing it is different from ignoring or provoking?

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It seems always true that if you want to be different or independent, you would annoy the people around and they would take you as aliens.

To be ignored or feel the annoying of others usually are not a pleasant experiences to immature minds without matter how old they are. To avoid the fate to be in the ignored list, most of people give up their independence or choose leaving.

It is a test on your emotional capability in the market. If you could not pass by, you would fail in the market.

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We need to get along without being critical of what others believe and give them chances also to you too.

It is simple and very vital rule: go your way for your profit and let others love their feeling and kill their capital. You could not save anyone in the market but yourselves.

You could not give up your self-reliant to exchange the acceptance of the crowd. If you do so it is the time logic and common sense would be obsolete to you.

Don't take this unaffordable risks.

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Don't join the celebration or funeral of any quick and easy money in any forum.

It is amazing to me that only a few can see what happened, is happening, and will happen in the market. It is our nature if we could not find the TRUTH we tend to destroy them. Any one who have independent minds would be singled out as the resistors. They need to be shut up or shut down for mateship.

History shows us that many of the reformers died when they refused to accept the populated but compulsory ideas or customs. Most of forums have the culture and customs to kill the self-reliance and independence. Do you choose to die if no freedom and independence of your thinking?

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Fortunately you could choose the freedom and independence and then choose the responsibility for your own money.

The most risky thing is you could be in the ignored list when you have not accumulated enough profit but if you could get the money, you would be followed. I really don't like to be crowded. I just want to do what I enjoy.

I like the fairness and challenge in the market. I expect the reward as the appreciation fairly, which would let me feel happy even no one wants to share this happiness with me.

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Would you be followed?

It is sure you will if you accumulate the money with your good enough mental framework! It is not really a matter then since you would get used to the calm, peaceful, but self enjoyed life.

Do remember group is group and you is you; At last you have to get your own money or pay what you have to pay!

 

If you are logical inherently in the market...

It is a rare gift to be logic in the market. The more active are you the more illogical seemingly in the pressure of the losses and hunger of the money. Most of people try very hard just to protect their biases through the overreaction to the different views and events happened around them in the market.

I was tired and sick of being as bigots to fight against logic and common senses between 2001 - 2004, but then I still could not view the biases and illogical from others with fun. Not matured emotion was wasted for wrong target, the losers of the market, who tends to cry tearfully and tell all of their unfortunate losses were not their faults but the self-interested people who abused the system.

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All of losers and winners deserve better respect personally. A winner in the market has to be intelligent and wise to know we could be "a bunch of hating and ignorant people' with the biases; we are not to fight for any great causes, such as saving others from poor but save ourselves from abuses of our sick minds.

You can not save anyone in the market since they don't have the responsibilities to follow you, right or wrong. It is always the case when you try to save others you are in the ruins first in my experiences.

We also need to remember insanity could not be broken out outside but inner wisdom and logic in our mental framework. It would be a futile effort if you fight against insanity by using personal provoking.

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Insane people doesn't see any harm from bad emotion and biases to their capital and that's really disturbing a few years ago when I was much worse to know myself. However I did recognize that it is normal to most of market players or traders.

It seems we tend to got some obsession with the biases after we jump into the market before we are wiped out or win over our insanity. It's really bizarre after we know why genius falls down into the hell and experienced so many shirt-losing events.

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When I read the title "calm before storm" I do see the worries of the posters. It is a very passive title. Protection is really needed but scaring yourself is not wise. You could not just be scared by the storms.

You have to know what risks and opportunities before, during, and after the storms. Do you have your corners ready before the storm; if all could see the storm in, what do the people really want; If you know what they want, it means opportunities; If you don't know you will abuse you.

What should you do? Find the sign the storm would destroy you without matter what you! Avoid the places you would be hurt! Around your corners find the desperate group of people and service the sentimental needs by buying the shares from them if you believe the price could be much better in future...

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Anyway I sold 500,000 chm at 0.063 to lock the profit I didn't want to lose and prepared to join the SSP of AKK. The SSP helped me to sold AKK at $0.033 that I held with the flexibility to join the SPP.

The SPP would be closed on March 27th 2012. It could be very promising buying even with the risks when the time moves toward the tax selling season.

The market seems waiting for the completion of the SPP and it responses the very good news of its oil exploration emotionless, which let me feel very comfortable.

The sale of CHM compensate the capital loss in last year but did not do any help to get the lost paper profit back which should have been locked.

***
By the way I also bought some AXM in at $0.001 at the half price of its right issues. I hope I could complete all of my AXM buying at $0.001. It is only viable price to stop the losses of the losers who have held AXM from $0.10 or more.

After the right issue AXM seems no option but consolidate its shares. It would ruin a lot of traders and add more pains or cuts on their portfolio. There are risks for gold price down but it should happen after the global economies get out its ruins after GFC.

To DOW, it might be true that market is calm before the storm but to XAO, it has counted all of sky falling down risks into its price. It is always running down much quicker than running up, which has been shown in its 100 years chart. So in Australia stock market it is most risky if everything become very good.

***
Of course there will a lot surprises along the way and no one really could tell when XAO could up independently. It seems never. That is why we have black swan theory in the market.

Personally I expect some great surprises from what I want to get or in hand. Actually I really expect AKK could surprise the market again with another positive shocks to the traders. Usually after good things hits one spot for two times the stupids or traders would think good lucks would be with them for a while if not forever.

Why do the people cry for calm of the storm? It is not because they are clever but they have lost something they really don't want not very long time ago.

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In the terrible shocks, they did get some thing that is if the market crashes they just could not sustain. They want to run away from the crashes which could be those from their feeling or future truth.

In the extreme cheerful with the paper profit, they would just remember the joyful feeling, which let them ignore the risks which could not affordable. I was very cheerful and felt the market would follow me before the April 2011.

Both were wrong which have been confirmed by the history again and again.

 

No sheepish behavior!

A good mental framework must be one which can be updated itself in the ever changed market environment without losing the motivation to get the chances and control the risk affordable. It should be a life goal if you stay in the market.

Reading is not to show off but to make yourself more intelligent, wise, and disciplined. If any materials in the market without matter how sounds great but could not help you to move toward this life goal, don't read and waste your brains. Before 2004, actually before 2006, I googled to get materials to support my own feeling. It was wrong.

If you really want to enjoy, go out of the market and find what you like and pay the cost for enjoyment. To many losers actually are in internet addictions and a lot of them google to kill the time and they are very easy to be irritated by any words which are not fitful to their minds.

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Don't waste your time in useless and aimless googling. Human needs the goals. If the goals are reasonable and could be reached, they could motivate us to reach them.

I want to move myself into mining for a few years to reinforce my last financial defensive line, which needs excellent verbal communication capability. I just finished one project in embedded satellite communication. I will spend two months for a intensive course in English listening. Actually I have started to use internet for it.

I have found ABC has audio news with transcription which could be used to storm myself with a perfect English learning environments. I nearly know all of the words on the paper but I do need to identify them by listening.
1. listen the news one time
2. listen while I read the transcription
3. read the transcription loudly
4. listen the news and pay attention on the names which I tended to ignore except in my own fields.
5. actively rather than passively to find the ways to enjoy the processes and keep to update the mental framework.

To get this task done I have accumulated about $60,000 cash line. It would let me focus on without worrying about cash flow. I would enforce my buying criteria so that I could keep my mind peaceful.

As I said English in social term is my benchmark of mind updating. It is my goal and I will go for it by dancing to work on it.

***
I do warn myself that without how we work hard fortune to anyone means lucks, affordable risks, and never falling down. I could control the risks affordable. I could never let me fall down. I could not control the lucks.

However I could set up my reachable direct and indirect goals. I could find the places which could not kill my capital but have the chances to get surprised good return, which means I have to find the gold ahead but no one can see. I could put my affordable capital into the places where there are plenty chances for high and good consequences.

It is sheepish behavior crying tearfully after market crash and shirts losing. It is insane to google for rationalize your crying. I would not cry privately and publicly in group. I could fail in my exploration but I could not lose my spirit to explore.

***
I would always tell myself that once we get some big enough profit, we tend to become greedy or timid and imitative. We need to build big enough bond-type investment base, which would generate big enough cash income even when the market in its depression.

We need to alert that losing and winning both could drive us into overreaction. It will drive the chances and the profit away. It will jeopardize both bond and stock types of investments. We do need both of them and keep balanced between them.

Sheepish behavior is so prevalent that simply is called as herding. When you are cheerful by anyone illogically or emotionally, it is quite probably you are one of the herd or crowd. It is most risky matter in the market since you would be never a leader for yourself.

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To be yourself and a leader of yourself. If so, googling is a tool for your positive goal rather than killing the time.

By the way it is necessary to get some historical views for long term. What do you feel from the charts below:


It is a very positive news that the whole world has moved out the depressive mode, worrying all of the real or imaginary disasters such as US falling down, Japan Tsunami, Australia houses down to ground, and China tipping off.

Now XAO just worries about one thing, China hard landing! Why do you say XAO worries about the China slowdown? It has put much more risks than the slowdown into its price. How about China hard landing?

China had the best position in GFC and as in the stock market the strongest shares would be punished at the last stage and the worst ones are the target of the bargain hunters.

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If China can do any better than the market predict, the people would jump over it and Australia! Do you worry China would drop backward politically? Quite hard since everyone would try all to protect what they have got and richer people tend to find the compromising.

We all want to get hopes if we can. Destroy all is the last resort even in hopeless situation! Why don't you sell your house, do nothing, and get money from government? If you don't want you have to turn around from the risks for chances. It is true to a nation too!

The men or women with the powers in China are 55-75. These generations know what extremes could bring to a individual or nation since they have been in desperation generated from communism and feudalism and then they would cherish what they have got from the market economies and would change the political systems if necessary.

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Do you think I was influenced by the Western cultures in England and here? In Engineering it is true. In market and political views, it was false.

China had its renaissance(might not completed then) between 1977 - 1989. It had got its mind where it wanted to go and then I read a lot of political and economic books from Western World, such as Adam Smith's the wealth of nations. Actually all of educated people to read any books which could help them to question!

1.5 billion of people want to be rich, which is the matter no one has been seen in the history! It has started and if it would be stopped in a decade, it would be the matter to put all into the hell, which could not be controlled by anyone! Natural disasters to destroy the world!

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With XAO, a individual has to build his own defensive line for long term and take the trading as tactical tool to find the position to sustain while China is finding its bottom to land.

The key requirement is enough cash income from whatever he could get; the buying with big enough margin safety, which is to set up the strategical position rather than as a way to get some gratified quick pennies profit.

Life and market usually make chances for new generation or the wise men or women who can cross the gap of new and old generations.

What kind of people could catch up this kind of chances? The lucky plungers who just get into the market by lucks at the very beginning of the new boom or visionary and experienced veterans who are disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant for the coming booming!

***
News said the allies would exit from Afghan in 2014 in schedule. But to secure a nation as secure our own portfolio, Afghan needs the intelligence surveillance, security, and reconnaissance capability to protect itself, which needs a new social, current, and army structure.

Building the Afghan army and police is a central part of nation building as we have to build our protection system in our mental framework. It could find the chances and protect us. All are evident but in the market few would like to build their mental framework structurally.

Some in the market may want but they could not setup their own plan to do what they should do or they just don't know how to do. I don't think Afghan could protect itself if the allies would move away now. It could not survival.

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Could you survival in the market without a trust mental framework? If you think so you are a idiot even you could copy and paste from one place of internet to here.

In Chinese history, all of great failures in wars were made by the genius who could read, talk, and think wisely in their own imaginary world, but could not use anything right in the real world or war.

Why? Their words and talking were for them to feel great and their thinking was about how they could read for talking wisely. How many market people who could talk greatly but never stop to lose?

Do everything for the profit and try to be good people to donate after you get enough profit!

 

Dream turned nightmare?

Chance gone...
News said Ian Thorpe's best chance of making the Olympic team is now gone. Ian Thorpe said he's utterly gutted.

Thousands of fans who, like Ian Thorpe himself, had begun to believe he might actually come back. As Ian Thorpe touched the wall of the pool, the mood of 3,000 people went from wild exhilaration to stunned silence.

Perhaps it was always going to end up this way. And sports allow us to do so after we paid for the emitting of the emotion. Ian Thorpes was amazing and should be remembered.

But in the market you could not do as Iran Thorpe and his fans. Otherwise Livermore's fate would be your one!

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Hope, win now, and disappointed!

It is about the sports!

After his remarkable swim in yesterday's heats, the fans - everybody - allowed themselves to hope that this might in fact be one of the great comeback stories.

"Look I'm terribly disappointed with that. You know I had a really good heats swim this morning and I thought I could and I thought I would swim a lot quicker. Much quicker."

I was disappointed with my failure between May and October 2011 in the market too. I thought I could double and tripled my profit and locked them away. But I failed. It was disappointed me and forced me to recheck my mind again.

***
Emotion, disappointment, and the market losers

But there's no denying the emotion that many fans felt at watching Ian Thorpe's comeback bid fail. But none more disappointed than Ian Thorpe himself.

I believe that is why Iran Thorpe could make history in the pool.

But most of market players just found excuses and reasons to blame others. They tend to promote themselves and deny their losers' status. They never were champions before and most of them only had the shirt-losing records.

The losers in the market tend to believe that they could win if they could put anyone into their ignored list. They don't know it is themselves to make the loss or profit.

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I have to deal with it!

"I was lying on the massage table and going 'yeah, it would really be easy to cry now'. I've never felt like this after a race. I've never felt, you know, just utterly gutted and you know kind of left speechless by a performance.

And asking all of the questions, you know: why did this happen? You know, why is this going on? And so it's, yeah, it's a new thing and I don't know how I'll handle it. But, you know, I think, I have to - I have to handle it well so I can get myself back up."

Have you joked anyone who could admit their failure and do you appreciate the guts to admit the failure.

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Do you have gut to admit failure?

I like Ian Thorpe very much and appreciate his achievement and words which full of self questions and self-awareness.

Sports performances are limited by ages. Life performances could not defined by any individual failure.

Ian Thorpe has the mind to accept the failure and have the gut to deal with the failure.

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Question yourself and know your environment!

Do you have the gut? Do you know market is not the sport field? Do you know you could retreat intentionally and find the best position, time, and best mood and physical conditions to hit out?

Do you know in the market you don't need to race against anyone? You just need to harness your primary instincts and prepare for the winning without matter how much time you take?

You could win in the market even you are not so clever as the people who could swiftly change from crying tearfully to cheering as though they hold the world in seconds.

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War has lost before it started

Too many market players had lost their war just long before they jumped into the market.

Do you read and ponder about your plan and procedure for profit and mind updating? I do! I believe once I pass though a threshold or barrier, I would hold the core of life logic and common senses.

If you hold the core of the life logic, you would hold the key of some fortune if you are not extremely unlucky!

 

Have to change if you cannot get profit!

You are very smart people if you could read and write posts here.

But if you have lost money constantly in last decade or could not make enough profit for you, there are something wrong seriously in your mind. You could tell anyone how you are great but you could not change your status, losers. What could more important than to find ways to make your job done in the market? Losers fail to do their jobs. They have to fix their problems.

We would be surprisingly foolish if we don't take this opportunity from shirt-losing disasters in a decade. It requires for us to update our mental frame. If you could not change you would fail to do your jobs again and again.

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We are not foolish people but we could be insane. Have you made your effort to change your mind not just get some words but know how to use some basic logic to do your jobs?

We have to make an effort to avoid this kind of shirt-losing matters in future. We have to know it is a very challenge task.

Actually few old men or women really can do since it means you have to start and keep to do the change when your gut and ambition have started to diminish day by day.

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If something wrong in our mind, it has to be fixed. It is not whether it can be fixed, it must be fixed.

It is utterly inappropriate that we would keep to lose our shirt with any self-promoting words or decoration for our insanity.

We have to ask questions always: do we lost too much and why?

If you cannot sort out the answers for you you would fail your job!

 

Life is good and market can work for you!

If you watched 60 minutes of Channel 9, 16 March 2012, you would be surprised and inspired by a "Brave Face."

A lady, Charla, was savagely mauled by a friend's pet chimpanzee. She lost her hands, eyelids, nose and lips in the frenzied attack.

Incredibly, Charla survives. It is an extraordinary story of the human spirit.

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It is a great and powerful soul.

CHARLA:

I guess it wasn't my turn because I know I have a lot more to do yet. I'm not ready to go yet.

I don't think I've never given up hope. I always know I'm going to get better.

Charla Nash survived against all the odds!

***
She's always had a drive to live. She's always been one to get out there and go do things and go for what she wants.

And it just makes you think about human life and what it means to be a human and it's just it's not how we look at all. There's much more on the inside than we could ever see.

Life is good!

***
Trust yourself and put your efforts to get your mental framework better and better.

If we don't give up, our mental framework would be better and better everyday!

At some thresholds in our mind or an critical barrier is removed, market can work for us!

Market is good and life is good.

***
A Brave Face

 

Fortune and survival!

All of traders and investors want profit not loss; fortune not poverty; quick money not sale on the fire; simple chart lines not intelligent protection system; actually all of good things not bad surprises.

In the last decade, few got fortune, profit, quick money, and any good things from market with their simple lines in chart. Anyone here could declare they have got the fortune in the stock market?

Is it right fortune comes after survival even not all of survivors could get fortune? More than three years passed after GFC. Every head-against winding in the stock market would crunch the guts everywhere.

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1. People instinctively don't have the mind, gut, and spirit to be survival in the ruins.

2. Most would give up in the tedious road to make profit in the market.

3. Stock market is the hardest place to make fortune and money since there is only one resource you really could depend on, your mind only.

4. It regularly put the people in the ruins to check their survival capability, such as IT bust, GFC, EU debt crises, and China slowing down hardly or softly.

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If you could not survive how could you revive?

What's the basic requirement to be survival? You don't need the capability to fly anymore even you did so before let lone to say you have lost your wings.

You do need to enjoy the practice to get thing better and better in bit by bit.

When I read the coped words for nothing but feeling, I warn myself, be self-reliant and be survival in the ruins.

***
If you just come in for quick money as new one, you deserve to enjoy your excellent beginning.

For anyone who has losing-experiences for 5, 10, or more, it is shamed to tell anyone as experts. The reason is simple that your losses and experiences of stop-loss could not certificate your expert status.

I am not qualified. I would try to be qualified bit by bit. At moment I want to be the last survivor if the crisis would continue. I mean, XAO just drop itself into the hell! I don't believe it would be real for XAO but if I could deal with the worst I could fly in the best time.

Oh, an warning paper from my intelligent mental hub: Don't fly when all could and worse try to fly. The crowding is risky and very risky!

***
No one could control the market as individuals. No one could be mistake free. But you have to be sure you could control your own mind and your own decisions where your money should be put in. What is the control means here? Don't buy if you don't have basic probability calculation! Sell if you have lost the probability to get more profit.

Control means discipline and focus with your efforts. What at your current life stage should you focus on, which is critical for you? Is googling really helpful for your profit and control the risks? Control means no guess and be sure not take the random noises as signals. What could I control? I thought it is important for me to focus on the defence and change what inside me without ignorance of the environment.

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Losers always do things by feeling through the most appear and staggering matters but do forget they are the consequences and they could not control. When you put your money on things you could not control you would be losers.

Control is the controllables. What are the controllables to you? It is not the lines and patterns but yourselves. It would not add any weight for your controllables when you are upset by words since you lose your own control on yourself.