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Trading KIK: Sale on Fire!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 6th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Some big boys dumped about 100 millions of KIK shares.

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    The selling has become intense since the beginning of June and seemed build a new bottom channel. Its price today was lowest, which was much worse than $0.024, the GFC worst price. It was partly caused by its right issue price, $0.004, partly by its bad lucks for its drilling for oil, and partly by the fearful market sentiment! Now all of the world follow the leader of crash in price, XAO, which crashed to 3850 around a few weeks ago! All of these loaded some warriors too much and a straw just crashed them down to the ground! I felt sympathy for them so that I would like to help them with what I could afford!

    Desperately selling is the signal that the warriors desperately needs your business if you are playing as bargain hunters for value in the market!

    Now it gets the money from right issue. I got 1500000 of KIK at $0.003 today for wider diversification and lower cost of my portfolio! Its fate depends on its drilling for oil. It is high risky and high consequent business but seems have not the risk to close the door before next March. I am very happy to get the fishes from the desperate and depressed warriors at this price. It gives me the chance to service them and increase the potential for me to get a 10 baggers.

    Thank you for the people who sold on fire. I would like to take the risks you didn't want since you might have lost too much and trapped there too long. It is my honor to service you, my brave warriors even you have to retreat from the front line of the attrition war!

    Good luck for me and the brave warriors!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Sep, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    After losing more than 80%...

    Mark Creasy continued betting on KIK on Oct 2010, Dec 2010, Mar 2011, and Sept 2011 with good macro and micro economic reasons. He has much big pocket than me and turns his share from 7% to 12%.

    http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110906/pdf/01215429.pdf

    I am happy to work with him to service the desperate warriors at much lower cost than him. He was a very tough bargain hunter and it is not first time I worked with him to service the warriors such as SIR, which I bought in at the price much lower than he paid too. However I failed to lock very good profit when SIR at about $0.30. My pocket is much smaller than his one so that I should be less aggressive than him.

    I have followed KIK for years and in this bloody sale day at last I could hold some of it! Mark Creasy is a value investor and he usually buys in when he feel the margin is big enough and if the price continues to drop down he tend to buy more. Philosophically I agree to his approach. However I still have not the knowledge he has in the market. I tend to let cost run and cash reserve depleted.

    Hope this time I could lock big enough profit while the Sun rises again and get the lessons and never use up my cash reserve as he always does. Good luck to him and his SIR and KIK!

    By the way it seems KIK is touching on a rock bottom. So far there are 30milliion buying order at $0.003. What if KIK just drills and bangs to hit a million barrel oil tank in the sea? Could it come back to $0.25? God should bless it!

    Are you sure it is rock bottom? No and who could be sure in the market for a individual fish or swan if BSL could drop down from $12 to $0.075 around? Every time when I saw BSL chart I did feel gut-crunching even I never touch it before even I would like to buy some if it drops down to $0.10. It was blue but when the blue turned to be ugly, you would be trapped there too! If we don't buy at the peak we should be very happy!

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    In GFC worst time FMS was just $0.025! Get the margin of safety and know you could be wrong! Keep the prudence to buy low and sell high! It is business and then you have to keep your portfolio no losses at any given time! I am happy I didn't buy KIK at $0.25! I am happy what I swapped shares in last few weeks have recovered my capital losses between April and July. I need to get my bottom line profit target first from now!

    Just dream what if it recovers to $0.25? 1,500,000 x $0.25 = $375,000. Could I fail to lock the profit again since I am too greedy if it becomes true? Hope I get the lessons but I really could not be sure. You know sometimes I am really stupid and make some silly mistakes. Why? The system? No! It is me, my only enemy to make the silly mistakes. I have to be alerted always! Do hope it could shoot up to $0.25 before I realize I have to lock the profit so that I don't have the chance to make another silly mistake!

    Man, you are stupid always and you have to update your mind and get the lessons! One lesson is if everyone expects the crash in October or November, it quite likely is not the case after the panic selling has set the price at GFC level!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Sep, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    KIK gets what it wants!

    KIK advises that the allotment of securities pursuant to the renounceable rights Issue offer dated 22 July 2011 has been completed, with the Company having raised $6m (before expenses of the issue).

    It has got what it wants. Its shareholders also pass the resolution to reduce the interest of its converted notes from 12% to 4%, and capitalized the 8% interests at $0.004. The expiration date of the converted note is extended to 2013 and its total amount is $7.5 million.

    So now it reduces the pressure of cash flow, get the desperate blood, and be able to operate for its oil drilling safely until 2013. It also tries to farm out its oil tenement. It tries to balance between survival and revival. Fundamentally speaking, it is very strong at the price of $0.003, I feel! Do wonder if you want to sell why wouldn't you have sold before August? I know I should buy now but I was crazy between April and June. Do you know your reasons?

    Good luck to it and me! Hope it could get great oil together with AKK, OTE, BKP, and SSN! What if all of them could not get oil? It is the fate for them and not my mistake without matter what the consequences to me!

    I do believe good black swans would hover over the market after the sale on fire even I could not be sure where they would be exactly! Human still needs the oil for sometimes! Nature uses the fire and harvest to balance the world and market!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Sep, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    "Anyway I am out now!"

    If you pay too high or have not enough cash reserve, the market could beat you again and again until you said "anyway I am out now!"

    The warriors, big or small around kik actually were very tough and they held their position very tightly in the first run of XAO crash! Now in the leadership of some big boys these tough guys could not hold their position any longer! It is a typical capitulation when the warriors are in a attrition war. "I give up and don't beat me any more!"

    Yes where is the hope? XAO has been in the correction for two years. US has trouble. Eu has trouble. China has trouble. Australia is hopeless and has the trouble! Now even RBA could not insist Australia is good but said the next interest rate would be dependent on the factors outside it could control!

    How could things turns to be so? The sky seems really ready to drop down! The safest action in the market is running to the exit! Where would you hide if the sky would fall down? Nowhere! You are stupid to buy thing before the sky falls down!

    Don't blame the warriors. Some of them might hold KIK for years and see KIK price down and down again. I was very painful since the April which was just for months. They need to be understood!

    Who really want to burn the money on fire? We are forced to do so unfortunately! After you buy wrongly and refuse to lock the profit you should you delete too many options for a bright tomorrow!

    Could KIK give me a 10 bagger? Don't know but it gives me the chance to lower the cost of my portfolio!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Sep, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    $0.003: a rock bottom?

    Some bargain hunters pick up KIK at $0.004, which is dirty-cheap to KIK's remaining value in my view. It is good to see it sets its rock bottom bed at $0.003! Could KIK come back to $0.03 and $0.3? I feel they are highly likely even I know I am biased after I got it!

    September is terrible month for stock market usually. The good news is XAO had enough bad days since the May and this September should be not too bad if the sky is there.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7th Sep, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    The bottom, $0.003 was tested again!

    Today more than 50million shares changed hands at $0.003. Some big boys seemed really want to get out to close their account.

    It was so powerful and then all of buying orders at $0.003 was cleaned up for a few hours. It scared a lot of bargain hunters who sold on fire too! These sellers few bought KIK at $0.003. So they seemed to lose at least 25% and no one really know how much they have really lost. One thing seems sure that some big boys have lost more than 95% at least. To them KIK is the money burner!

    However it seems not too bad for anyone who bought at $0.003. This selling actually has tested the bottom as a tsunami to a tiny house. KIK may need more time to get their oil out but if it could get the oil all would change.

    At $0.003, the risk is that you could lose all with the chance to get a 10 or even 100 baggers. I bet on oil price would be at current level for sometimes. So I would hold to see what happen. It really let anyone who dared to buy before June very frustrated. One thing will give you different results and then you are the originator for what you get!

    Don't know how long this storm would beat the people again and again. Do hope I could lower the cost and hold tightly and safely what I have got. Do hope the Sun will start to rise in the market again even I feel we would be in this storm for at least a few weeks.

    I was really enjoyed to run under the rising Sun between March 2009 - Oct 2009, which provided a lot of beautiful memories when I cautiously lock the wonderful 5, 10, and 20 baggers. Could I am lucky once again to pay less for my mistakes I have made since April? Don't know but I would warn myself: never make the silly mistakes that synchronize my feeling with the market one!

    Learn how to devise some 10 baggers but human errors always make troubles to me. That frustrates me very much! Why could somebodies just design a universal 10 bagger detector and then we could use and get a lot of them!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Sep, 2011
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What do I know?

    Who really know what happen to KIK? No one really know. Could you have known on May 2011 that it would be $0.003 now if you would have sold it today? It was the time KIK was sold at $0.05.

    All of our problems seem to boil down to this: It’s hard to predict the future. If we can’t predict the future, then it does mean some risks in the market. If we can’t know the future, then even if Market goes crazy and sell on fire we could miss the opportunities.

    But logically it is wrong if we just focus on all the things that we don’t know. Too many people guess what future KIK would be but the fact is no one could tell what result of a drilling accurately!

    We need to go over a couple of the things that we do know for the probability of different scenarios in future.

    1. Too many big boys believed it would have a lot of oil otherwise they should not have held when the price was about $0.15.

    2. Now they fled at $0.003 which means the burning money on fire. Do you believe they know the oil is just gone? I don't think so. They just wanted to run away with the chips on the table.

    3. Could it close the door and all of chips just gone? Possible! Could it not close the door and revive just because next well hit a oil tank?

    4. It has the money in bank since it just finished its right issue and allot all of new shares to the new or old shareholders.

    5. I bought at $0.003 which is 25% lower than the issue price of its right issue. The market sentiment is terrible now and most of people just run away which could not say KIK is not a good bargain.

    6. Yes what if Euro would crash down, Greece would be default, China would tip off, and Australia's land sinks into the water... Seriously I really don't care about since if you are fearful about sky falling down, you should do nothing but commit suicide!

    7. Why do you commit suicide financially? It is because the life would miserable if you worry what you don't know without matter the future is good or bad; You don't have the desire to make the future!

    8. If it has the oil, it would be a swan or at least a dog which could be marked at $0.15. It would be good enough!

    9. Why did the big boys sell at $0.003? They need to get out of the traps and clean up their balance sheet to get more stupid or wise customers. I don't need to understand why they should sell but I just need to be happy I have helped some of them get out of the traps and got the chances for myself!

    10. All of us tend to be crazy and insane in depression and euphoria! Just read the news now and tell you what you could get! What do you get? Australia house market would crash down. China would tip off. US no future. Euro would be gone. All of us are crazy!

    I never feel sorry just for me to buy IMI but I do feel stupid since I bought it too much when my feeling was synchronized with the market bullish sentiment! I was wrong was because I want too much.

    For KIK, I just want to get the margin of safety, the high winning probability, and affordability if the consequence tilts to the extreme to close its door which so far I still believe unlikely for a year! It is improbable in my calculation for it to close the door but could be true!

    It is priced as though it would close the door. I bet on it will not and have the oil since after I know what I know and this known tells me OK, I don't have other options! How to manage the risks? Put the money in which I could afford!

    The market is too complicated so that most of warriors could not sort out the most basic and simple things. They use the advanced artillery and system to cry for what they don't know and could not control! I just could not believe if oil price keep to be more than $80 and KIK has the oil, the current market sentiment would close the door for KIK!

    Does KIK has the oil? I don't know but based on what I read about its oil tenements, it should have some and quite huge corresponding to KIK's size!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th Sep, 2011