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Trading MAR: bought it at $0.13

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 20th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Read it for weeks and painfully decide to buy it at $0.13 when XAO is in another run to the hell! Happy for its announcement:

    1. Its Advent has now completed an initial study of shale gas potential in EP386 and RL1.
    2. The results indicate significant potential upside in prospective shale gas resources for Advent with estimated unrisked OGIP for EP 386 & RL 1 in the range from 19 TCF to 141 TCF.
    3. The thickness of the prospective shale gas play varies from 300m to over 1500m.

    It is a time excellent news is good, good news is bad, and no news is the certification to the hell!

    I do feel

    1. it is a excellent news which shows the potential
    2. it has $12 million current asset less 6 million current liabilities.
    3. it could not die tomorrow and it could have more chances to surprise the market!
    4. it is risky but the reward also could be high

    So bet on affordable capital for the potential!

    After Greece and Euro gone if they have to be gone, the world still need the energy. Hope after we could see good tomorrow, it could fly again with SSN, AKK, KIK, FAR, BKP, CIG, and so on! What if all of them drop into the hell together? It is the fate for this world!

    Good news, no one cries for oil bubbles! Good news it has the explosive in its engine. Good news its price has dropped down from $1.15. Good news I start to check the quality and I am very confident it is not IMI in a year! Bad news all of us expect the Greece and Euro goes down to earth. Bad news we have so many institutional high-frequency traders who just work for no-tomorrow(even in the peak before GFC they did long everything for decoupling). Bad news...

    [​IMG]

    I just do what I should do with alerts I could be synchronized by these no-tomorrow guys! I am waiting for you, the good black swan with the efforts to lower the cost!

    In short term it is voting machine. In long term it is weighing machine. To get immediate 10 baggers, it needs the oil getting out the ground in second. It is the time no one trust scientific research let along it just tells something like high probability of the oil in the ground. High frequent traders are wind catchers! I am a trader too but I do want to buy extremely low and sell for enough business profit. I don't really trust MMR and believe it would be the blessed son of lovely God. I have a portfolio and I want my portfolio no losses under the law or rules set by the God or nature!

    It deserves to be discounted until the oil is real on the ground! I like discount and then I could not stop but help buying some! Damned, if no tomorrow what I am doing?

    I just wonder why God blesses Australia but the Aussie in XAO just wants and works so hard for it to be in the hell! Could you believe these Aussie know what they are doing? One of my friends is very angry for what Aussie deals with their resource: why don't we invest in the resource by ourselves, which is stupid! Crowd and mass needs the populists rather than insight and determination. Why so many high frequency traders? The pure speculators or gamblers. They don't think they have the responsibility for longer than today!

    ***
    AKK is sold by the market just after it reports a better oil and gas reserves. That is amazing. I don't think this selling would affect how much oil and gas in the ground. In its bottom channel, I am happy to see it has the explosive powders in its engine.

    At one side the current depressed market mood would hit down all. At another side, it would be in the hell or sky based on the drilling. Its shale assets are not craps in my view. If it is not unlucky too much, it should get some oil.

    Fear is powerful and internet makes the contagion of deficit virus into any cell of the market around the world. It is hard to be immunized. You sell? I will sell and all sell! We are racing to win in a zero-sum competition. It is a practice to stampede each other in a run to be alive.

    I have worked for my corner since May after I realized that I was bloody synchronized with the market mood! In a strong corner, I try to exercise the ideas: just around the corner for things I believe are gems! I could be wrong but I would get some gems from the wound warriors! These warriors are hopeless and need my hands!

    Do you think XAO is in another great escape? Don't think but run! Run to the hell and then you would have tomorrow! Why don't you run in days? I could not afford the brokerage fees! It is the days to buy and hold for next bubble, I feel! Of course if you have cash reserve to hold!

    ***
    Seriously saying I put too much hopes on KIK, FAR, AKK, and MMR, which ask too little but have too much odds for future 10 baggers. I don't expect all of them give me 10 baggers but one is enough. Some want 10 baggers but don't understand they need the black swans.

    You could not be sure any fish could be hit by the good black swans but in the pool where there are a lot of black swans you have great chances. KIK is at $0.003, which could not tell it has not oil but just how bad the genius feel now! Genius feel bad is always good news for fools!

    In the probability distribution graph for anything in the market, you could find negative tail which has probability for about 3%, which is highly unlikely but does happen. If the market has to go back to normal these high probability tail would give you unbelievable high probability to get 10 baggers. All just regress to means sooner or later if the death is not the means!

    Genius use the math for absolutely right. Wise fools as Warren Buffett use the math for roughly right in the time when the blood is full of the Street. I am a fool who like the blood in street too but I just forgot I should sell in April when the market is full of cheers! We tend to throw away the babies with the bath water. I could not do so since I am not clever enough in the storm without risk to kill me in the way!

    ***
    I do feel bargain-type day traders are the last bubbles which were formed before GFC! A lot of them are the residues of IT bubbles. After they burst into pieces you could run under the rising Sun. They are the people who need to see their graves in the market! Old gone and new comes in!

    Before market train leave away from a historical station, it needs to drop 80% or more of its passengers down. The train leave away with a few passengers on board is the lesson history keep to tell us! How about high-frequency trading genius? They would cry why thy just jump down a few seconds ago!

    Absolutely right or wrong? I prefer roughly right since I know I am very stupid sometimes even much wiser and more intelligent than the genius! What genius think about themselves? They just worry only about their as*hol* after they realize they are in the hell!

    LOL!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Sep, 2011