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Trading Market doesn't follow the path we assumed usually!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 2nd Dec, 2010.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    The US medias are cheerful now to call something like "Global markets stage rally!" What was the medias cried yesterday? Do you wonder what these difference news or analysis mean?

    What we assume is not important but it is important that DOW moves up greatly today! Do you think the global economies would change so much fundamentally? Have you tried to see the underlying logic why the market up today?

    1. GFC was bad but all of the nations know all of them were in one boat in the ruins. So all moved quickly to stimulate the economies and put all of efforts to lose the boat completely and their economy development chances.

    2. GFC turned from a financial crisis and then a worst economy crisis, which disrupted all and made huge damages. These damages are real as car accidents would make some real damage which could not be assumed without the crisis.

    3. Government could print the paper money but they could not do so without some limitation since some balance among the different currencies have to be got otherwise everyone would be losers.

    4. GFC naturally was a matter unprecedented to nearly all of nations. Some nation with poor risks management and bad lucks in the worst place of the global economies had to spend to stimulate the economies but the deficit was formed. The deficit crisis was bad but unavoidable.

    5. No one wants to sacrifice to save other nations since the voters would not allow so and big political back fire no one could affordable. So the deficit crisis have to develop to some very bad situation and then they could be fixed. It is not good news to deficit crisis itself but it is natural development.

    6. Once the situation improved all of nations would focus on their own problems. No one would like to sacrifice their national interests if all could be alive. So the currency war into the sight. It is bad itself but the GFC would move much far from the worst time.

    7. Once market bargain hunters saw the weak good signals they would bet and then better confidence would come back slowly until some threshold of the economy and market are reached. So wise men said the market climbs up over the wall of worries.

    8. Correction of Australia stockmarket have been in its course more than 13 months. The logic is if Aussie economies could move forward and all of other economies could be steady, it should break down the cap made by the V-shape recovery.

    Based on the above, I do feel XAO would have to make the mind to go up through the cap or follow the worse global economies into trouble. However how about the probability? In my views it seems unlikely.

    I wait the market water up and all of boats float. Someone said at sometimes in the market all of genius and bums make the money. It seems this time would not be too far here. Of course I could be wrong. What if I am wrong? Could we lose the shirts again?
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
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    Location:
    Perth
    Water rises up to celebrate the Christmas?

    Did you miss the water up in V-Shape recovery?

    V-shape recovery in last year was the first market water up which floated nearly all of boats which were not damned to be in the hell. Anyone who missed the water up, would missed a chance which would make all of genius and bums on the board.

    Another water up dramatically in sight?

    Is another water up dramatically in sight? Not very sure but the correction in Australia stock market looks much worse than in US, UK, and Europe. All know we are in a resource booming again but our economies capped by external bad imagination and the internal political troubles since Oct 2009.

    Seem water is accumulated somewhere in the market

    Recently XAO seems has slowed down to follow the bad news. The water takes more time to build. The longer the building, the bigger should the upward logically be and the more powerful. If you paid for your boats in correction and believe their price is cheap, you should be rewarded while you could be on boats patiently.

    Why don't you count the downward risks?


    How about another dramatically downward risks? Feel not sure what happen after the next April but it should have a big enough up in January or February. The correction would last for 16 months then. It is too long. If the correction would be last to May, we would may miss the effects to sell in may and run away!

    A strange time but could be surprised time.