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Trading More and more are rolled out...

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 22nd Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    When the market as a whole expect the Greece default and falling down of domino cards in the market, more and more bargain hunters were rolled out from the market at the price they would be painful to accept and never be forgot in their market life.

    News said:

    40,346,274 of RAU at $0.004, which was hoped to sell at $0.005, were rolled out. Every time when the traders see 120million sell order there, they were terrified. Now it is about 88million at $0.005 for sale.

    More than 100 millions of KIK rolled out in last 10 days but only 2 million were rolled out at $0.003 and there are about 20K at $0.003 for sale on fire today.

    50 millions around of PDY rolled out in last 10 days but some just rolled in today!

    Some just were rolled out from all of swans and fishes. In extreme cases, a few hundreds of bucks could push the price down between 20-40%. The burning rate is dramatically high!

    My portfolio has been little bit higher in last 10 days.

    VIX dropped down from 43 to 30.5 and today is at 37.32, which is still lower than 48 when XAO led the whole world for a exercise to run into exits. During this exercise there were a lot of warriors had been stampeded into financial death even no accurate report about it! XAO as we expect, is in the worst sentiment compared to its peers in Euro and US!

    People started to worry that XAO would lead the GFCII rather than Greece and Europe!


    So I hurried to check things around my corner:

    In the stampede today, no serious accident happens in my portfolio, which let me feel a little bit relax. Do hope the crowd could respect my private and don't damage the fishes in the pool of my corner. Usually the crowd is kind in the worst time for my fishes!

    However experts said Greece is quite possible to be default and Euro would be disintegrated. Market lost its own mind and you could not argue with these experts. It is said Australia as a whole has very gloomy future since the house market could be collapsed in days! The only things need to be noticed that all of these experts could not give out a calculated probability.

    It seems nowhere to escape in the market and economy. If you were rolled out, it would be a sure matter! It is very dangerous in the uncertainty of eye of tsunami and it seems all would be rolled out before it could have a stop! Yes it is very dangerous in the hopeless warriors!

    I heartily give my best wishes for anyone who has been rolled out from this bloody market. It is your luck since you don't need to worry about anymore! You can feel reliefs now! Good luck!

    News said there still are some gamblers jump into the sinking ships today. How dare are they?

    Someone just got KIK at $0.003; all of PDY shares at $0.015 gone; Some even bought $12,000 AFT at $0.001; 2,500,000 ORO were taken away at $0.002; 1.7 millions of BRO were taken at $0.003!

    Why do you throw the money on fire in XAO? It is really hopeless! if you don't believe its hopeless you could ask anyone who just were rolled out! Don't you be afraid if your houses on fire?

    Strange time makes strange people. Crowd is not always wrong. The sky is in danger. All we could see that, couldn't we?

    I guess these guys just don't believe the sky could fall down onto ground. Usually I don't believe it too. Now I just worry if no sky where all we go? Revolution in the hell?

    Order, please! All of politicians in Europe cry so! Fed didn't want to risk itself for the fire from the congress! No significant death financially in Europe, it is dream to hope the politicians would work together to get the order!

    The truth could be as shown in the following before any serious efforts for order:

    Life is bad without matter how colorful the party was!

    What after that? The ruins everywhere in which there are some gems, gold chains, and bucks. Where are their owners? Don't know and hard to identify!

    Could you find your shirt in this ruin?

    In the stampede, a truth is no system, very advanced, works if you could not stop the hysteria of the crowd! How about high tech and science? It doesn't work in the hysteria too! The internet just reinforces the hysteria and make the stampede more terrible! Don't tell me to stop when I desperately want to get out and prepare to pay all of the cost to be alive!

    I just try all to make my corner stronger and stronger! I could not save the mass in stampede but I could keep in my corner to let some of the crowd have the chance to get out!

    What if US and Euro follow XAO today and tonight? It is highly likely that the warriors in XAO would stampede each other tomorrow.

    Are we, who are in their corner, really hopeless? It is also quiet likely as shown below:

    Survivals of the stampede or Early birds?

    I just prepare for these days when I could run under the sun which is just above the horizon... or better I could use the lessons in this stampede and get a great horse to run as the guy below:

    Life is good without matter how dark the stampede day was!

    Life is good under the ring Sun, right? The beauty is that you don't need to be a genius for a good life then! It is the time bum and genius both could enjoy the life with the money the dead crowd left in the ruins! Unfortunately I could not expect 10baggers since my silly mistakes which forced me to run into a dreamed but faked grand party since April! I feel very sad once I think about these silly mistakes and the corresponding opportunity costs!

    What did you do today? Stay in my corner to record anything I could see in the stampede among the crowd; sort out my mind for lessons from my mistakes and this stampede; read and write in ease and have a comfortable snap; think what I should do if the sky becomes darker; and pry the sky would be there after Greece and Eu gone!

    Why? Instinctively we like to put us in the crowd for grand party and stampede even the consequence is fatal! I am not a genius and I would like to run with the genius in the rising Sun! I want to be a early bird in the peaceful and lovely sunny days! I hope some of my oilier could pump out a lot and a lot of oil when I have a snap or sleep!

    We don't just have the bad black swans to force us to stampede among the crowd!

    A new theory has been accepted by XAO: it has been decoupled from any good things which human kind could image! It becomes popular since the decoupling with US has been tested and failed in GFC!

    So far no any official declaration for this new theory. If no one declares he gets this theory earlier than me I would happily declare I have the copy right. LOL!

    Good news when no any news is good:

    Bargain Hunters are losing the shirts!

    Shares lose $31b in plunge below 4000!

    Dollar dips below parity with greenback!

    Markets too pessimistic on Australia: RBA!

    Gold weakens as greenback gains!​

    All seemingly would be underpriced. High $A could not be the curse for good Australia economies at moment. RBA has to lower interest rate if this pessimism would stay there for too long(don't know it would be weeks or months). Gold could not be a bubble very soon. The last but not least thing is RBA doesn't believe Australia would follow US and EU to the economic hell!

    The problem is no one in the market dares to believe any decoupling between US, EU, and Australia at least in days! Yes, even RBA said it needs more data for conclusion for sure. It is not a time anyone could be sure so we all act based on the guess in the market! Lose the shirt? Bad luck! Be early bird? You get a lottery! A great Casino, XAO, isn't it?

    When do you buy? When do you run away? When do you unfold? When do you hold? Which table you prefer to stay? All would decide where you go in this rout! Who said you could not speculate in the market? You have to since the odds means no 100% sure matters in the market!

    What do you feel for these good news? Not very good honestly saying!

    Crazy! These guys are always greedy! They need counting how many days are left for them before GFCII and the sky falling down!
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Sep, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Could Australia lead the world into GFCII?

    Stock markets in EURO and US drop down greatly but still is far higher than the price level of GFC. Here where would XAO go tomorrow? In the stampede, no one could predict what would happen.

    Stock market is the barometer of the economy. XAO should act based on the economy performance in Australia. Australia is not the eye of GFC tsunami. Deficit is a remote problem compared to Europe and UK. It could not be decoupled with advanced economy. It should not coupled tightly with Chinese economies. So XAO goes its own way but seemingly it goes too far and then is leading the world into GFCII!

    Could we lead the world into GFCII? What GFCII means to DOW and FTSE? If these bigger economies could not get into GFCII how Australia gets into GFCII? Is China more risky than Euro default or US default?

    Why does XAO act as though Australia would decide the fate of the world economies? We have high Aussie dollar, some one said. We depend on the Chinese economy too much. We have natural disasters. But we do have not debt default risks. XAO should not lead but follow the performance of the big stock markets.


    GFCII means DOW has to be lower than 7000 and FTSE has to be lower than 4000. But DOW now is at 10700 which is far higher than 7000; DOW is the index of the hub of GFC. FTSE is at 5000 which is much closer to the hub of the deficit crisis, EURO than XAO.

    Is the labor party which makes the economy here in crisis? We have 5.7% around unemployment rate. We have good banks. We have to provide the resources for China and perhaps India later. Fundamentally we should not have the chances to lead the world into GFCII but are dragged into GFCII by others!

    It is my feeling XAO's head is full of water! It is insane! It is insane which is out of the imagination which anyone could expect. I could not see China was the hub of GFC. I could not see China is the hub of the current deficit crisis. In this sense I could not say RBA's judgment is crazy! Who is crazy?

    Mass or crowd could be crazy. Once it gets into craziness and insanity, the stampede is unavoidable. Could XAO drop down to 3000 when DOW hover higher than 9000 and FTSE higher than 4000? Possible but it is insane. Who follow the insanity would pay the cost!

    What if XAO crashes first? Could it become sane sometimes later? Could you see the crowd could be insane for time longer than your expectation if no extreme ideology support and pushes? XAO does couple itself with all of the bad news around the world. The harder it goes into extreme the harder it corrects itself sooner or later!

    Could we get GFCII? Possible and likely but XAO could not make or materialize it. It is wrong to predict the fire on your house in Perth since some houses in Sydney on fire! After XAO leads the crash for so long, If GFCII comes in, XAO should have less room to crash down further. If GFCII is just a faked ghost, XAO would recover by itself!

    Get your corner stronger and let XAO collectively be crazy. Don't let the water in XAO's head into your head! Could you? It seems impossible! I would continue to lower the cost of my portfolio but never follow XAO to sell my money on fire. If I die I want to die in my study room rather than in this crazy stampede!

    I believe GFCII needs VIX to be 80 points. Now it is 41. It needs Greece in default and EURO doesn't work anymore or US is defaulted or China is tipped off!


    The crazy XAO doesn't follow the fundamental and any patterns. It is very independent as anyone who is in mental disorders! Retail market players have lost the contrition war. Big boys seeming are a group of genius who don't understand the old economy but could not believe new economies anymore. They have to guess where the wind would go! Who would be winners?

    Who would be the losers? The people who put their saving and super into the hands of these big boys would be the losers! The big boys would be the winners for fees if they lose the money! They would be the winners for bonus if they get the money in this zero sum game! In this sense Aussie collectively is stupid. However if the funds just lose money for too long, the managers would be the losers too. Jumping over the fence at last is a game for losers!

    One of my friends called me tonight and said he sold all of his share yesterday and said he would not play in the stock market anymore. He lost in IT bust. He lost in GFC. He missed the V-shape recovery. Now he was beaten down again by the insane XAO, he said. However I do believe he beats himself down even I could not say so straightforward.

    The generation of traders who started in IT booming have been wiped out from the market. It is sad but logic! I would not leave the market even I could come back to work for others. I do believe after I rebalanced my portfolio again and again, it has the price not too far from its lowest level! If I die I prefer die in the office and workshop rather than in this crazy stampede. I would continue to lower the cost!
    Last edited by a moderator: 23rd Sep, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Race to crash!

    XAO is in panic selling. In a few days, all seemingly would die financially!

    XAO is racing to crash. XAO is stampeding into the exit. XAO is predicting all would fall down. XAO is crashing to the price below 3900. XAO is shocking all and making all guts crunched. XAO is bursting not just bubbles but burning the money and predicting all would be into the hell!

    However it should drop down much more! It should drop down to 3000 to let GFCII become true in Australia! It should wipe out all of the day traders first and then turn it to be ghost land completely!

    When things go to one extreme it would try itself for another end.

    Could XAO become ghost land even all of the day traders or bargain hunters die financially?

    If something have to be gone they have to be gone! Let's them gone! Let's them into the hell. It is the time to drag the bargain type traders into the slaughter table. They risk $1 for $0.05 more or less and now they just lost $0.50 more or loss.

    What if resource demand would not be gone? Don't think and question but sell! The better the more do you sell!

    I don't sell in selling days as I don't buy in the grand party. I never think you could get more in the desperate stampeding for no exit from this ghost land! I do believe after all of these weak hands lose their shirts, the order would come back and the light would give people's hope! I do believe after 2 years' correction XAO has not corrected its price around the value if not lower than its value!

    In GFC, FMS dropped down from $0.23 to $0.025. But after GFC its 600mT IO pushed it back more than $0.20. The sale on fire is the best way to burn yourself down. If you sell why don't sell in the normal days!

    Crowd is stupid and always stupid when they move to the cliff! It is not about trading system but life logic and common senses. This time is new and the sky would be there after the sale on fire finishes! Let's see and wait if you could!

    What would you do if all of your neighbors would burn their houses down hysterically? Follow them or refrain yourselves to burn your own houses? Do you follow your computer system to fire your houses? Yes? You are bloody stupid!

    Do you think you are stupid when you desperately stampede each other for a air-thin exit? No one think so when he does so. Future is unknown and just history tells so. Genius have made a lot of great systems to make people stupid.

    What did you think about GFC crash? What did you think about V-shape recovery? What do you feel if your oilier just pump huge oil form the underground? Buy for winds or buy for what the business produce or explore?

    These sellers are wind players... They just care about the wind but not the money! What if the price lower? It is a question as the question when you guess what is the next number from a rollett in Casino. Buy for margin of safety. Buy for no losses. Buy for bloods which are flowing from these desperate warriors after they could not run anymore! When do you sell? Sell when these warriors really want to pay for premiums!

    We all could calculate something wrong to buy and sell for losses but we should not make the mistakes so stupid - sell on fire!

    Don't you feel panic? I don't feel panic but do feel regret since I failed to sell before April. I do feel the pains but I could not make another silly mistake to compensate my stupidity! If XAO would be 3000 and be there forever it is my fate and Australia's fate. I don't want to fight for fate!

    I feel sad if I die in the same way by which these hopeless warriors die financially! They are completely hopeless! It has shown in IT bust and GFC! Instinctively the stock market would put all of us in loss position in long term.

    I would learn to sell when the profit is big enough and the market start to be over-optimism! I would learn to find the gems and buy them with great margin of safety. I would learn to use the market sentiment to buy low and sell high. I would make me matured mentally in the market!

    I do believe AKK, BKP, KIK, and all of oilier would be remade if they could pump up the oil for them. I don't believe the wind could tell us if they have oil. I do believe 10baggers from extremely tough buying of a group under-priced fishes or swans plus some lucks! If BKP could confirm 10% of its calculated reserve, it should be 10 baggers. I don't need all to be 10 baggers but one is enough for a year! I don't think I paid much less for my fishes than that in normal time.

    I still feel very happy every time when I thought what I did around PRR. I bought at $0.01, held it more than 2 years, and then it suddenly shot up to $0.02, $0.05, and then $0.26. And then I felt panic in fear to lose $180,000(more or less) paper profit when I saw people struggled for higher or lower price around it and then I sold at market!

    What if KIK just find big oil even BKP, AKK, SSN just could not find any oil? What if KIK just could not find oil and have to close the door? Inverting, inverting, and inverting to sort out what we should do and what we should not do!

    I still feel confident to buy at the lowest tail range of the probability distribution! I still believe good black swans should not hit most of crowd. I still believe the law of 80/20 and regression to means! I still believe market is huge pendulum which swing between extremely good and bad ends!

    I still could not figure out why some warriors could sell 50,000 KIK at $0.003, which was just about $150! If you risks the money just to pay for brokerage fees, it is a way to destroy the money! Exploration means odds, which needs diversification and time average to lower the cost and filter out the risks. When I bought KIK at $0.003, I never thought I would sell. It could close the door and perhaps 5% of 30 fishes could close the doors in a year. It is the cost you have to prepare to pay for the lowest tail range of the probability distribution generally! It may not be the best buying but if definitely a better chances than the price at $0.03!

    I agree it could close the door but it also could come back to $0.01 or $0.03 or $0.06 or even $0.15! $0.003 means something very bad internally and externally but it is abnormal in my view! The price could not tell us all of its exploration site would have no oil! The traders or warriors around KIK obviously are suffering some mental sick in my view! A lot of warriors hope KIK management could give them instant big money-making solution but before its lucks come back no one could do anything good! The key is not to put the unaffordable money into a dirty-cheap fishes since they could close the door.

    We are our own enemies. It is a matter about yourself and your understanding about the dirty-cheap fishes! It is about how you play with them! IT bust and GFC has shifted the bottom channel greatly. I feel sorry I do realize it after this April. That is why I try all to rebalance my portfolio and lower the cost.

    All of genius know the law of regression to means, right? Could you say it is not at the lowest tail range of the price probability distribution? In reality we worry more about its possibility to close the door more than it could find its feet on the oil again! The traders just say some so stupid words: 31 days passed no any good news or 61 days passed no... Exploration is a business to calculate the probability on the ground and try to confirm by drilling. Who could be sure? How about the management team? To the tiny companies most of time we really don't know and hard to know! What about RIO management team if you just see the difference between $135 and its $35 of its prices. We need to learn to do what we should do! We tend to star at the consequences to guess what next we should do!

    These guys sold at this price are the wind players not money players and they should just get the wind, nothing! No one could get the wind they want!


    RAU is another example how crazy the warriors are stupid. It has gold reserve and just get more money from its shareholders and the clients from its underwriter at $0.005. Its future in short term such as days is hopeless but if it could get the gold unto the ground, it would be rerated. So the question is do you believe it has the gold, do you believe it could get the gold unto the ground, what do you think the probability. I could not see the wind of XAO could change these essential matters. If you are wrong you would be wrong to answer these questions! The warriors are too clever to follow the wind but too stupid in basic! So someone just dump 52,811,685 shares of RAU. What's for? Is XAO crash would wipe out the gold or gold would drop back to $1000 or $500 or...? Most of genius or warriors don't have basic analysis and judgment capability! It is not the wind to kill the warriors but the bullets in the war. What is the bullets in the market, the war place?


    All of my fishes are priced at the level set by the market between June - July. It is the time XAO sold in system way to lock the losses. The August extend the selling. The panic today or in the following weeks would crush the bone and mix the blood into the price. If they don't die in this chilling wind, they should get their corners for rest and then run in the day when bum and genius both make the money! Could you see these fishes have been sold in panic for too long? Could we say it is the time bargain hunters is losing their shirts? When these tough bargain hunter lose the shirts, could you ask yourselves some very basic questions?

    Could you choose not on this table?​

    It is the same to PPX and BSL too which have been on fire for months if not years! Wind does change the fundamental but in days it changes too much! I do feel the insanity of XAO. I will not follow it until I die or it comes back to normal! XAO is trying to induce the toughest bargain hunters onto its slaughter table! You have the choice to choose not on this table!



    Anyway I could make any kind of mistakes but I hate to sell on fire and never sell on fire without matter what consequences are! Do feel XAO as a whole becomes more stupid than it in GFC. In GFC it has a rising cake into the sky, the decoupling from Advanced Economies, which was inflated but far away from the level of a grand bubble. Now XAO has no idea about the future at all. XAO as a whole just counts the price yesterday, today, and tomorrow based on what it sees in US and EU markets and any bad news in bipolar disorder!

    I do feel it is the end of the day traders, momentum traders, and all of warriors just have rear mirrors behind, who have been motivated by the ideas in new era days. It is not just about retail warriors but the fund managers, the big warriors. How many funds could make money in the last 5 years for their clients. They kills the clients and then sooner or later would kill themselves. Capitalism is harsh and tough for the money losers for themselves and others always!
    Last edited by a moderator: 23rd Sep, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Lowest tail range of price probability distribution

    If I were conscious and not captured by the market sentiment, I would try to buy the shares whose price dropped into the lowest tail range of price probability distribution, which means I would buy shares when some low probable prices were given by Mr. Market.

    When it worked with

    1. law of regression to means and over correction
    2, diversification and time average in time to filter the falling knife risks out, and
    3. the bottom ranges of the shares are stable,

    it worked fine. However to increase the winning chances I would add one item, quality, in my future share selection criterion; and try to learn how to deal with the shares with upward trend, which means growth. Market sentiment would times by times shoot down to its lowest end for a defined time horizon and correct it by overshooting back.

    The application of the law of regression to means and over-correction needs:
    1. buying at the lowest price of the bottom channel
    2. if overshoots are big enough such as the similar amount the price swing down, it should be sold usually if no company making events.

    I was extremely cautious before V-shape recovery but I tended to exert my feeling or expectation on the price since October 2010; ignore the time horizon of the over-correction; betting blindly with no company making events or potential; the root was my greed for 10 baggers, which is so sweet that I forget I could not make it!

    The application of diversification needs

    1. evenly allocated capital
    2. when overshooting happen and no company making events in a defined effective time horizon, the winners and the losers which are big enough should be sold - rebalance the portfolio and reduce the cost.

    Again my greed forced me to break this necessary requirements to apply diversification since October 2010.

    The application of time average needs

    1. use evenly divided capital to buy underpriced shares so that the average price would be forced to be not too far from the lowest price or the lowest tail range of the probability distribution.
    2. the first buying is very important and must be very tough so that I could avoid the traps good money after the bad money into the bins.

    The above naturally belong to the value investment but has its own fatal drawback, that is when we chase the lowest price in the bottom channels there are not clear line to define what the bottom channels should be. This drawback tends to let the market sentiment affect our judgment of the bottom channel. Once my head became hot,

    1. my mood was synchronized with market sentiment,
    2. bottom channel were distorted,
    3. diversification was not even anymore,
    4. no time average was used or used wrongly
    5. there were no portfolio rebalances for too long so that paper profit lost and portfolio was in losses when market conditions changed.
    6. looking-cheap but expensive shares were over bought.
    7. fancy events or expectation as the sure matters to bet for 10 bagger so that winners turned to be losers and the portfolio tilted to loss position.
    8. in the loss position, the tasks turned from making money to being survival, which put a series of problems ahead:
    8.1> selling? the price had been in underprice level;
    8.2> holding? market could damage the value and shift the bottom channel down or the situation could be much worse;
    8.3> buying? after cost run and cash reserve deletion, it simply could not be done or should not be done!
    8.4> forgetting? as a full-time market, you have to get the income for necessities.
    8.5> the most challenging matter is how to rebalance the portfolio properly without more mistakes and losses: run in ruin? you could be stampeded; stay in peace? The market is crashing down and the paper losses would be increased and you don't know what could be the worst.
    9. Gut crunched and panic or anxiety were part of the market life

    So the market action must be organized in a vivid business way. Unfortunately I was not trained as a business man which leave too much gap between what should be known and what I don't really know!

    Market business needs totally different mental model from what I have got as an Engineer. One side market doesn't give us chance to make mistakes without paying. Another side we could not just read without the money playing in the market.

    Good or bad news to me is I know I am not good enough; I know I have full responsibility for the consequences from my terrible mistakes; I know I should be rebalance my portfolio in order even it means more losses; however I am really painful since I could not find any excuses for my mistakes. Before I could blamed others since then I never thought I could be wrong!

    I never feel so scared in the market even I could calm me down consciously. Market is a war place. How be fearful when I should and greedy when the limit is clear? I feel my portfolio is not too far from its lowest price collectively but I just could not stop but help to think what if I am wrong again. That is why I wrote so much which is mainly to check my mind again and again. I would correct me if I find I am wrong. Is it a necessary journey to let me matured mentally in the market?

    I still could not trust my quality analysis of the shares based on financial analysis. But it is a tool I have to get.
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    When the rolling-out stops?

    I have to say since I was in the crowd since April my attention is how to avoid the stampeding and unaffordable new risks when all run toward the exit.

    That is why I cry to make my corner stronger.

    I really hope I would not be in this crowd. I really hope I would have a pile of cash. I really hope I would have not let the cost run and cash reserve deleted.

    Unfortunately the market becomes worse and worse. Should I sell in this ruin? I try to find the reasons if I don't sell I would be wrong. I want to think and run if necessary and would like to find a way to run without stampeding.

    All I do are to get the better results from the bad enough personal situation in the market. If anyone is not in this crazy crowd, you should not take anything from what I write except the sense, the prudence, the safety and the goal-driving intention!

    Why did I put so much words about lowering the cost? It is because I have paid too much after I failed to rebalance my portfolio! Seriously saying if I was not in this crazy crowd, I would not care about how they were rolled out but I would just care about when the rolling out could stop! I don't want to be stampeded but I have to monitor them in time otherwise my corner could be crushed down by these crazy crowd. If you are outside of the crowd you just need to know when you should throw out your first batch of balls, second batch... and last one so that your portfolio would be no losses at all in the worst time. Don't use the solution to solve my own problems for your future plan since you should have different problems from my ones.

    I am struggling so that I could not be chosen to the slaughter table of bargain hunters in this terrible contrition war! I deserve the pains since I put my first step wrong at very beginning! If you are not among this crazy crowd, don't jump in when stampede is going on! Should I jump out at any cost? If my portfolio is not one for dirty cheap fishes but blue chips I would! It is my experience in IT bust and GFC the dirty-cheap fishes would sell far away before the system crash... Hope it will be true again and so far it is!

    However I need quality analysis based on the financial statement to avoid the falling knife and find the gems to add more winning odds to my portfolio. It is a very difficult task and need a big learning curve.

    If we are wrong, we should be wrong honestly and make them by our own not anyone else.
    Last edited by a moderator: 23rd Sep, 2011
  6. Johny_come_lately

    Johny_come_lately Well-Known Member

    1st Jul, 2009
    SE Queensland
    To quote a young boy in the movie The Wedding Singer, "You're going to the mental asylum".

    Another favorite, "It's not the Timing of the market, but the time in the market".

    Or this one, "The Trend is your Friend", well...........maybe not.

    Johny. :D
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Yes, but how to use these simple logic onto the earth so that we can never put our portfolio in losses in the ever-changed market?

    Mental healthy or fitting to market is necessary which would define our good behaviors in the market. If our behaviors formed in the last decades, such as that I got, are not good in market, how could we escape from the mental asylum and change in order for a good market behavior?

    I like the trend and would like to ride on a trend which makes easy money for both genius and bums. Do find the trend just take U turns when I felt I could have easy riding. A friend turns to fight against you. That is terrible and let your gut crunched. How to set up a long-last friendship with the trend especially the historical booming trend? My instinct always try to break this friendship.

    Timing and time confuse us too much in the market. To get the winning probability and quality at reasonable price and good enough margin of safety time is important and everything.

    1. Time should be the server to the margin of safety.
    2. Sometimes we just pay too much for swans after we choose special time points and make great loss at the time point we feel best.
    3. We never or seldom to give enough time to let the margin of safety to build up.
    4. We never or seldom to sell quickly once the margin gone or the paper profit is in stake. It is my weakest point. It played its part to destroy my paper profit in IT bust and this time.
    5. Why did I burn the paper money times by times?
    5.1> I usually could get into a reasonable good trend at the very beginning when some historical trends are in the horizon.
    5.2> I usually was very patient(stubborn) to ride some great trend for quite long time with some dizzy paper profit.
    5.3> I always turned to be greedy when the grand or good enough party start the music. I became over-optimism when the over swing happened.
    5.4> In the music I forgot the timing, time, value, margin of safety, and everything but started to calculate the possible but extremely low probable future profit.
    5.5> So that I missed the chances to find sign of the anxiety of the players since the timer to end of music start to work.
    5.6> Trends got their U turns and my old friends successfully to traps the paper profit and worse wiped out enough my own capital and put them on the fire.
    5.7> Did I know the consequences from what I did? I could not say I didn't know. When we are in hysteria, we don't work hard to find things we dislike or would like to accept but self support for our dream.
    5.8> In my case I am a loyal trend follower, who follows the trend from up and down and then be in hell.
    6. Not too many times the trend leads people into hell but the cost is too much. The problem is it usually is too late when you find your lovely trend has brought you into the hell. The worst point is before you are in hell you just believe your old friend would bring you into the heaven! You waste too much time in the trend!
    7. Is it trend the problem? The simple logic is no two trends are the same exactly; trend could start and then stop without signs; we always misinterpret the trends; wing flapping causes some trends; great discovery causes some trends; value and growth causes some trends; and sometimes no trends as though the pendulum keeps to be still.
    8. Trend is great and could be a friend but we tend to abuse it, which is the trend of the market sentiment and our human psychology. So that we cry for trend as friends but act for trend as our enemies.

    We could not stop our internal trend to be insane!

    1. I could not stop my insanity when market become euphoria.
    2. I made my trend to burn the paper profit and followed the trend followers into the cliff!
    3. We don't follow the right things and the trend becomes big we lose big as trend followers!
    4. IT bust shocked me and let me know some basic was wrong in my blood. This crash told me I am still very primary in the market as the crowd animal!
    5. We tend to find excuse to get the quick gratification! It is a very fundamental problem for me and most of market warriors!
    6. You are wrong and all of trends would destroy you without matter you follow or not!
    7. Could I see the end of freeway when I drive at 150km per hour? Could I see the sign of work ahead when I drive happily in a sunny days? Could I get the destination when I am so busy to count how far I have moved and dizzy to dream the freeway would lead me into anywhere I would like?
    8. Dream becomes true as trend followers? Go to the hell if your eyes are just on the good things in your car or star at the rear mirror! I have to admit if I drive my car for sometimes without accidents I tend to do so!

    Anyone who act as me or worse than me should be in the mental asylum until they don't be insane anymore. I have to put myself in my mental asylum to fix my mental problems! You would destroy you when you keep to be insane without any medicine or mental cares! You are sick but you refuse to take the care, which would make the things worse.

    Take the care when you still could be healed! Otherwise we will stay in our baffled offices and workshops, which is not hell but definitely not a dream land and perhaps dream slaughter tables for most unfortunate professionals! Feel sad to see more and more genius come back to their dream slaughter tables after burning all of their affordable capital in the market!

    If having any chances I would not come back to the dream slaughter table even I could do so if I have to! Why so many people burn the money on fire, they want to leave the dream slaughter table behind! Could you?...Could you? Could you drive your car to your dream place? It is easy to be on the market freeway but hard no accidents at all...

    To be a professional in your office, you usually spent 5 years in primary school, 5 years high school, 3 or 4 or 5 years or more in univ, and a lot of your time to update your knowledge and skills for punch a hole or a few holes(or similar things) accurately, effectively, and efficiently. These schools of rooms for what we are, work as the similar function as mental asylums for better societies.

    Make money is simple but not easy which we don't have enough training. We tend to pick up some pattern or trend in price only. We don't accept the ideas that a wing flag could change the price trend even the fundamental trend is in danger or intact. We could admire the organized, analytic, disciplined, and self-reliant market players but we never admit we are not this kind of players. We refuse to reeducate ourselves and try to find the short cut on a price upward trend. We take the flight to hell when we try to pick up the trend into the dream land!

    We are too clever in the market and don't believe the money is scarce resource and most of us without enough training and lucks could not get it enough in life or market.

    Dangers ahead!
    U-Turn back to your office and workshop!

    The market history shows these signs to all and 85% of genius and bums do so. Are they completely insane or not trend followers? I do feel more than about trend and trend following, need to be in our concern for good behaviors in the market. Market doesn't take captives but wipe out the losers away even the mistakes to human are very acceptable!

    Do you still want to go ahead? See the following to get the sense:



    Don't put you in a place where you have to run desperately or die!
    You can choose the place at anytime in the market
    In valley of death, no system and protection would work!

    The sense of the risks, the best protection in the ruins after most of people trapped in the valley of death, the intelligence and wisdom from the art of war, the enough back up forces, the plan and best organization based on your resources, the gut to join the trend and take a U-turn to the safe place with great cautions and prudence, and know the conditions to catch up the trend, all are needed in the war place!

    I prefer to get this facility and work in it for better services to the wound warriors from the front line in financial self-reliant way:
    No worries and then best service!​

    Are you ready? Not, definitely not! I am working on the road map before I could think about the fitted facilities!


    Hard or impossible we get the timing for absolutely right. So how could we roughly right and buy the swans at the time we should. If timing is not the condition for buying and selling what could be the conditions for a sure winning betting? Personally I like the value and probability distribution. Do feel awkward to use them and always make mistakes, which are too dear. By the way the English in social term still could not be used as my mother language. Really want to get a mental asylum when in baffles made by myself.

    Charley monger said we need to read a lot to set up the lattices of healthy mental network. Any better way to read, check, and change our thought model? Read too much in Engineering for a few decades and then have little art in my blood. That is a real fundamental problems.

    Do hope at last a simple but effective mental lattice would be available to me after going through some painful paralysis. LOL!

    Thank you, Johny!
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th Sep, 2011
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Any light in this dark tunnel?

    Do you know what the market and world are in trouble? I guess so.

    1. XAO is speeding down to 3000
    2. While the world is ending, XAO would be zero if not in days perhaps in months. It is quite possible that no 2012 for XAO.

    Did you hear me?
    1. Europe is going to default.
    2. The U.S. will go into a depression.
    3. Australia dollar would be $0.49 luckily.
    4. Global economies would just have the shrink to nothing.
    5. Riots would be in the street everywhere
    6. Stocks will go down forever. To zero maybe.

    Is this just the beginning to race into the hell for human being?

    Do you worry, sir? Of course I do. I get worried that the crowd will believe the lies while the big boys try to short everything for the fees in XAO. It is important you know what is lied by someones.

    Awareness is important in a war place. But you have major responsibilities for you and your family and the society: Analysis and Action. You need to look at the data and decide what is real and what is now. Then take action to make money or get your right position in this market tsunami.

    1. It is said the top 8 banks in US have almost $1 trillion in capital and only $54 billion in exposure to the weakest Euro zone nations. How about Australia, China, and Asia? RBA said all of them are best shaped, which I really believe.

    Why don't you say Let Greece and all of the irresponsible nations default? The sooner the better and then everything would be certain. The shorters in XAO would stop themselves since they could not short in white and black.

    2. Do you know at the beginning of 1980s, almost all of South America defaulted. US banks had more than 263% of their capital exposed to South America. It cleared up market wild and then recession finished and then the world had a 20-year boom after that.

    3. Is Europe a Lehman? One big difference

    3.1> The banks in 2008 lent out crazily in US and Aussie business generally has reasonable leverage. Now all of banks in US and Australia have better balance sheet and cash reserves.
    3.2> In GFC we all assume we would have bank run. It didn't happen and should happen now. So no bank run and then we had V-shape recovery.
    3.3> Euro debt would be paid out if most of Euro nations want to be advanced nations anymore!

    4. Australia has the resources, which makes a lot of people worry. Do you worry now if you have 1T gold in your backyard even if you do nothing to add value it would be gone?

    5. US had eight straight quarters of GDP growth. Yes we could not be sure for future but the risks for US to crash onto ground in weeks is unlikely.

    6. Higher unemployment? In 1945 too many soldiers back to the normal life. If the politicians are not crazy, it could be dealt with. Dislike the Labor? Yes I do but it is OK to hold the ship in floating.

    7. Aussie houses are expensive but all of landlords have prepared for worst since GFC. I am a risk takers and most of Aussies are very cautious and have saved since then. The price of houses could drop down lower but before the price is halved sellers would remove the house from the market. I am happy to get high rental from my houses and I could tight my expenses. Most of others should be better than me.

    8. Worse enough? Rate down; Aussie dollars down; Manufacturers or business other than resources could be better off; and then the waste from full capacity of economies would be reduced.

    That, in a tiny nutshell that I can expand if you want, is the macro view. Let’s look at the micro view:

    How about resource? China is cooled down but devalued A$ could increase the resource reserve. After the winter or tsunami you still need to make life go forward. How about India? How about the international investors for the dirty-cheap resource after A$ loses 50% amount such as $5.5 not $1.10. The economies would be rebalanced and bang to start up!

    My friends don't understand why I am optimism and panic. In macro scope, no worries. In micro scope I put me into a silly position, I have to worry about the mess I made for myself! I don't want to join the crowd who just run without thinking. I don't want to join the stampede. I want to make my corner stronger after I put some fires on it!

    I do worry the market doesn't give me the time to make my corner strong enough. The crowd is terrible in stampede! They could crush anything without mercy!
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    What're expected?

    In the market stampede you could be shocked to follow the crowd to the exit. It is most risky point and it is better to look around to know what is happening, what will happen, and find a place in the opening you have checked much safer with some cover enough for you. I do find around my corner, all of disgusting sheds for the bargain hunters have burnt down and most of them have run away to the exit.

    After working on my corner for safety, I read, ponder, and try to get reasons why I could be trapped in this disgusting sheds; what would happen after the ruins are everywhere; how often these stampedes would happen; how safely I could come back after next stampede to service the desperate warriors; how I could move my service team out of the market in order before the party plays its best music and all turn to be euphoria.

    It is sad to see more and more wounded in the stampedes. I feel sorry I could not help anyone in the depression who is in stampede and have no any energy to cry. Let me focus on my weak points so that I could get less hurts from the falling knifes while I work to turn myself as a business man to service the market warriors in next, next after next stampedes...

    There are some castles with economy moats standing up in the market ruins after the current stampede is over. The stampede has put too much psychological and financial pressure on the inhabits too. The houses in the castles are on fire sale now since a lot of its inhabits could not afford anymore or be fearful that it could be crushed down and the moat could not stop its inhabits to run away from the war!



    Not too long time ago, I never see the possibility to have a corner in any castles with moats since I just didn't believe who could run in the stampede if he could stay in the castle to read and ponder. You know if you are trained as workers, you tend to be bargain hunters since the action for cheapness make you feel safe. The sheds for bargain hunters could be deserted much easily and burnt into grounds. If a man is happy to buy the remaining value of the sheds at discount, he should buy a corner in a castle when it could not be lower anymore.

    However some castles just crush down to the ground even the rate is not very high in most of times and usually it happens when some stronger competitors have plan and power to do so. It is impossible to happen in the stampede or uprising of crowd since the competitors should not be so stupid to attack others when its own inhabits to run away!

    So why do you prefer the shabby sheds? I guess since I had penniless and traveled around the world for the dreams I get used to live in the sheds and don't have any ideas how safe of the castles and how cheap the castles could be in worst wars. I never was in war but offices so I don't know how easy the shabby sheds could be destroyed.

    It is the time to change my concepts about castles and sheds! I have to get the dirty-cheap sheds for discount for a decade. I have got a lot of valuable experiences to know me, the market crowd, the market sentiment pendulum, and risks and opportunities. I believe if I could buy the corners in a diversified castles when the contrition wars at its end, I would be safe and pay the dirty cheap price for this safety.

    Warren Buffett said he prefers the castles at reasonable prices. I know it is right but I just could not do with the shadows of shabby sheds. That has frustrated me for quite long time. I have read a lot to understand the castles, sheds, the crowd, the war place, and so on. I will focus on the issues how to buy castles for safety at the price I could afford, reasonable or dirty-cheap. Yes how cheap a castle's price is dirty-cheap and when it is dirty-cheap. If I could not buy the castle dirty-cheap how could I trust it would be not lower than the price I paid.

    Think about it and act... I just start to think about the castles. Anyway we have to think them since we need them for our loves and cheerful normal life if we could! I am happy my mind can overcome the huddles to a dirty-cheap fish collector. I guess Warren Buffett should be very happy when he overcome the huddles to be a Cigar Butt Picker.

    It is not easy to accept a concept which is not in the mind which defines whom we are! Whom I am? A ambitious bum who never lived in any castle before. In my bone and blood I like the dirty-cheapness for shabby sheds rather than the value and quality of the castles. I forget that we could get cheap corners in the castles when no one thinks about tomorrow, which is not a matter happened everyday!

    What could I get if I am just the best among the people as shown below? A bum who has few dirty-cheap sheds from the more poorer bums! It is fundamental issue to me! You could just better or much better than survival! How far from survival to enjoy your life as you desire? You have to put your first step on the right road. My life is already better than most of bums. Why don't put more challenges ahead myself and setup a example for bum to change his life! Of course if I am lucky enough!


    Lesson: most of retail market players play as bums and then their destination are bums better or worse! The more clever the worse. What the angels break the wings? Most of the angels are bums with some glosses when they are lucky in the market and they just come back where they should be after falling down!

    Don't say you have great system and then you would make money. If you are bum with bum's bloods and bonds the system would explode you back into the sheds! Bums are formed in your past but could be angels by changing the bones and bloods which is extremely difficult and most of bums would fail to do so. Would you want to change your blood and bond? Do you think it is worthwhile? I think so! It would make the life much colorful than you are just a bum or angel! Home made angels from bums are more happy usually in their life.

    The problem are that there are huge gaps between bums and angels who have been made in the way for them to grow up. So even the IQ similar or even different but not too much, they stay in their castles or sheds after they struggle for a long time to hit out into the air. If you just stay where you are after you work very hard, it is not your fault but the luck where you were born or whether a flash flies into your mind! A flash may need a decade or decades.

    Do remember if you try you would have the chances even no one is sure whether you change from castle to castle or shed to shed or shed to castle or castle to shed! If anyone tell you the change is sure, he tells the lie or he is idiotic without matter he is in the castle or shed. Don't be upset to be idiotic since in the market everyone has the times when he is absolutely idiotic.
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th Sep, 2011