I went to the Navra Financial Services/NavraInvest presentation last week in Brisbane. Apart from thanking his clients for their support for the year and doing some "pre-marketing" for two new funds that NI is launching early next year, Steve had some interesting observations on how the share market will perform over the next few years. I took 9 pages of notes and given what Steve was saying I'm surprised that nobody else seemed to be frantically jotting things down...perhaps it's all covered in the podcasts Sim has posted over on Steve's forum. I won't try to cover everything that was discussed. In a nutshell Steve pointed to his track record of picking the top and bottom of the market and advising his clients what to do and said he had his most emphatic advice yet. In fact he would be writing to his clients saying "you must do this...". He said there will be an inevitable future financial crisis driven by the unwinding of the US$ carry trade. The time frame for that could be 5-7 years (or sooner if unpredictable events like say various broke countries like Greece & Italy etc defaulting on obligations or a nuclear or biological based terrorist attack in the US were to occur). What will be leading indicators of the next meltdown will be stabilising of the US housing market, increasing US employment and inflation as the US consumer spends up again. The Fed will increase interest rates to curb inflation and the US $ will appreciate again against other currencies. This will create the problem for those who've borrowed USD at very low rates to invest in markets providing higher returns. When the USD reaches 75% of its previous high he will recommend clients exit the market. I'm not quite sure how you'd do that if you're locked into a 10 year product but perhaps the capital protection would let you ride it out...not sure. As a result he is recommending clients "migrate to safety" via the 2 new funds. One is a structured property fund (which has property and cash as well as shares thus not being totally exposed to shares and having a lower correlation to the market), the other fund is an Asia Pacific large cap fund with up to 200% capital protection and up to 100% (limited recourse) gearing available. My dislike for structured products, their high fees and the inflexibility they impose is well known I think. However, these products in particular the growth fund do look interesting and cheap finance (at best 8% fixed for 10 years at 100% gearing provided you can prepay interest each year and a 2% structuring/arranging fee in year 1) is appealing. PDSs are not yet available though. Of course form your own views, on advice, after reading the PDS's for these products when available. My purpose here is not to spruik them, but to mention what Steve suggests is the solution to take advantage of the bull run until the next crash without exposing yourself to unecessary risk. Inflation is the friend of those holding assets he says, but makes the poor poorer. Disclosure: I'm a shareholder so I hope the products are wildly successful, but make your own decisions in due course. Other advice included a recommendation to fix your interest rates. He suggested interest rates will go up in Feb and continue to rise for the next 18 months. Whether or not you agree with what he has to say, it was certainly a thought provoking and entertaining presentation. Anyone else from the Brisbane or other presentations have any other comments?