Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by ActiveTrade, 31st Aug, 2008.
Anyone dare to predict Q1 dividend with 4 weeks to go ?
I reckon 10%.
10% because of the volatility, or because you're pointing out that you're not psychic?
Mark, for Q1 ... not entire year ...
Wouldn't want to guess, but there has been a lot of volatility in the last month or so, so hopefully, good result for the fund.
LOL, it was a joke post. I don't know what's going to happen. There are 30 days between now and the end of the quarter. 30 days in which anything could happen. I don't know why people post these threads. The fund will pay out whatever the fund pays out.
Your smiley fell off your post.
How's the house hunting going? You find anything yet?
Mark - given there has been 130 views in less than 24hrs it indicates that there is interest in monitoring/ commentary of the Navra Funds.
There are many who rely heavily on it's performance.
My understanding is that the fund banks all the gains it makes thru the qrtr so there would have to be some indication on performance from some of the staff who work @ NI ?
Did your smiley fall off this one too? (will answer you in PM otherwise people will think I'm spamming I reckon )
I dunno, you'd have to ask them. If you can guess what's going to happen in 30 days' time, then please let me know - it will help me to maximise my returns. Otherwise, all the speculation in the world isn't going to help anyone.
I have clients who ring me all the time about a week out from the end of a quarter and I tell them all the same thing - I have no idea what's going to happen, we'll just have to wait until the end of the quarter.
Mark - so you don't know what happened over the last 60 days ?
Anyone with eyesight and an ability to read knows what happened in the last 60 days. As for what happened with the fund, it's right there on the NavraInvest website. I don't see anything wrong with discussing the fund - I just personally don't see the point in speculating about the quarterly return every... single... quarter.
I too depend on the fund to do well - the better the fund does, the faster I'll achieve financial independence, but I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know what the market is going to do in the next 30 days, hence it being pointless to speculate. It's like a yachtsman asking the question 'What is the weather going to be like in 30 days?' You just wait and see and hope for the best.
Anyone dare to predict Q1 dividend with 4 weeks to go ?
my guess is 2% with proviso that oil stays at around $115/barrel and israel does not nuke Iran
Can I have a 2nd guess?
Less than 2% as the unit price is ~ 90c and any dividend that is paid is coming from your funds
I just received call from Nostradamus.
He said that NI distribution for 1Q in 2016 will be 6.666%.
Are you happy now ??????????
Market (STW) is down nearly 3% this quarter, Navra fund is less than 0.5% down.
Volatility has been high, I would expect to see at least 1% distribution, but I think there is scope for 2% or so if you consider that this would still see unit price fall by less than the market has.
However, as Mark rightly points out - we're only 66% of the way through the quarter, and a lot can happen in a month on the markets.
I’ll have a stab…
The market has been in a volatile sideways (slightly upwards) trend since early July (following consistent losses for a couple of months). Navra has been a little less volatile and a little more positive during that period.
Assuming this trend continues, and depending on the timing of the peeks & troughs on the last day of August, then Navra should end the quarter +1% and the market should end at about -1%. One would imagine that uncle Steve would be in a position to distribute at least all of that 1%.
AU unit price 1/7/08 = .8660
AU unit price 1/9/08 = .8966
We are all 3.06 cents better off this quarter regardless of the distribution aren't we?
Doesn't the distribution size depend on whether the 3.06 cents is trading profits or capital growth (unrealised)?
How could anyone know at this stage in the quarter unless they had heard a whisper directly from a NavraInvest source???
Personally, I think people post these threads because some of us have 'grown up' in our investment journey courtesy of Steve Navra and Navra Invest. We all went to bat for our newfound knowledge and helped grow both the fund and for that matter InvestEd, which many of us, at least originally, were introduced to by Steve.
I think it's valid to speculate on a fund that operates on volatility - why shouldn't people be interested and excited on what the coming month/s might bring ? Don't people discuss what they hope the footy score will be on the weekend, despite the fact that 'whatever will be will be' ? Should free speech be banned ? We could all hop off to China and stay in some post-olympic accommodation if that's the case.
As a unit holder and share holder in NI I reckon the more scrutiny, discussion and publicity for the NI fund, good or bad, the better. I don't agree with the backstabbers who set out to whiteant everything with no common sense or justification, but asking what the return might be ? Sounds justifiable to me ... I am interested in the fund, so are others, if it performs we all win.
I think if any of us expect interested and active investors not to speculate or question on a public forum, we might as well chuck all our dollars in with one of the big funds where you get told nothing and can't have valuable discussion with anyone. Then when anyone asks "what will XYZ return" the software can be configured to display "We cannot predict the market. Please cease such discussions". Pfffft !
Get into it I reckon, get that excitement and volatility factor pumping. Don't let other's limitations stop you questioning everything and enjoying yourself while you're doing it, with a bit of spirited discussion that doesn't include personal insults. I reckon Steve would want that too. Nice work
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