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News Media sources vs ABS Data?

Discussion in 'The Economy' started by svetsi, 29th Mar, 2018.

  1. svetsi

    svetsi New Member

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    I'm trying to understand something so I'll give an example.
    Often when reading the media like Australian retail spending for the Christmas was far weaker than many were expecting I notice that sometimes the data they present is different to the data ABS provides even though they claim t present ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) data.

    For example, in the link above they make the following statement.
    “There were falls for household goods retailing (2.6%) and other retailing (1.8%)"

    But when I cross check these December figures with the seasonally adjusted figures on ABS
    the December change in Retail Sales for 'Household Goods Retailing' is -2.8% and not -2.6% as they claim.

    Also.. the below statement
    "Sales also fell in department stores (0.6%), cafes, restaurants and takeaways (0.1%), and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.1%)."

    But when I cross check these December figures with the ABS seasonally adjusted data I see the below figures.

    Department Stores - -.1% (The .6% fall didn't come until January according to ABS)
    Cafe's Restaurants, and Takeaways - -.5% (As opposed to the .1% fall claimed in the above article)
    Clothing, footware and personal accessory retailing - This figure was the same as the ABS figure of -.1%

    My question is, does ABS wildly change their data and make adjustments or does the media have an interest in reporting certain figures incorrectly? For Cafe's Restaurants, and Takeaways there's a pretty big difference between ABS and Medial claims!
     
  2. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    welcome to InvestChat

    i read both sources and then THINK about what i read and then go shopping keeping my eyes wide open ( if you can ask a savvy older person chat with them as well )

    no source is perfect the best you get is a snapshot from a certain angle ( blurry or relatively clear )
     
  3. svetsi

    svetsi New Member

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    I suppose I look at it from this point of view.
    I'm asking myself, is there a methodology here I'm not understanding which may affect the raw data from ABS to be presented slightly differently in the media.

    Also, given media bias and media / financial institutions relations, could this situation bring about the apparent inflation of certain results to direct the market a certain way?

    Obviously I have gained a healthy mistrust for media sources given the way they often report on how amazing some of these companies are just before their share price plummets. The smart money has to sell to somebody right?

    So, in looking at the bigger picture would presenting a certain industry in a better than earned light be the aim of misreporting figures like my example above.

    I could be a little too skeptical, but it's better to be skeptical than naive!
     
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  4. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    trust-no-one-quote-1-picture-quote-1.jpg


    the most obvious issue , is both sets of data are snapshots of the PAST ( at least 3 months old )

    not entirely useless but guidance only i suggest

    if naive means looking around in wide-eyed wonderment and asking questions ( like a young child ) that isn't so bad , you are learning as you do so .

    the ABS has an agenda ( especially in the presentation of the data ) , the media cherry-pick attention grabbers .

    and more importantly what is right for me may be disastrous for you ( just in investing strategies )
     
  5. svetsi

    svetsi New Member

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    I mean't 'naive' in the sense that 'naive' is to believe what one is told by the media or the ABS for that matter.

    Yes, they're snapshots I agree. The fact that it was 3 months ago isn't related.. I'm just using that as an example.
     
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  6. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    i like to question everything , but NOT just is it correct , or not , but also how can i use this information BETTER ( even if incorrect )

    for example

    i often read ( large cap.) stock tips ,

    say .. premium - 18 share tips - www.thebull.com.au

    and think .. if these stocks move ( up or down ) how can i take advantage of that movement

    SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

    Westpac Bank (WBC)
    [​IMG]
    Chart: Share price over the year

    Major bank share prices have been struggling in recent years. I’m concerned about Westpac’s interest only loan exposure, particularly in light of a potential correction in Sydney and Melbourne’s residential property market. I believe taking profits would be prudent.

    take this as an example

    now i hold WBC ( av. SP $20.50 ) so have NO interest in selling , or buying extras soon

    HOWEVER i have , in the last year , started accumulating ANZ and added a few extra on Thursday ( as the major 4 banks faced selling pressure this week )