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Trading NST: It shoots up but I am not on the board!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 3rd Dec, 2010.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    The market is amazing and it always makes some unbelievable matters or black swans everyday. What're the black swans in the market? The improbable matters which happen and tell us they are not impossible.

    The key is some would destroy your money but some would reward you like the lotteries if you are absolutely lucky. A lot of market players play the black swans as gamblers. But could we magnify the chances to hit by the good black swans but make the risks affordable.

    This is a great mental shift from the reward or disasters from the black swans to try all to tilt yourselves to the reward but never lose sleep in the night. The winning and losing at last depend on how we buy and sell but not what we buy and sell.

    To get more than 10 baggers from NST was very simple. You just need to put the money in before April 2010 and patiently wait. The problem is we really could not see it could be priced at $0.395 then. Something more than you could see play the explosive parts here.

    Could we catch up this something?

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Johny_come_lately

    Johny_come_lately Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2009
    Posts:
    703
    Location:
    SE Queensland
    Hindsite is great, but could you guess on December 2009 what would happen?







    Johny.
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    No one could see into future but our mental vision could!

    I could not see really and don't believe anyone could, but...

    Hi Johny, I could not to be sure it would happen and could continue to climb up for so long time without any significant correction.

    However I do feel we could sense the price movement historically and prospectively to buy the dirty-cheap fishes at lowest price. Actually I started to do so since 2004. The results are promising->the returns from my portfolio of dirty-cheap fishes(I play directly) has been improved every year then.

    My tests so far so good

    I just finished my tax return for 2009/2010, which was the first year after I quit my job. I collected about $120,000 profit from PRR and a few winners plus three falling knife with the cost about $$20,000.

    I bought PRR in 2008 at $0.016 around and sold at $0.235 in 2009.

    So far I have locked good profit from FMS, SSN, and a few other winners which give me about $180,000 profit, which may force me to sell my double geared founds to crystallize the loss about $100,000.

    I bought FMS in 2007 at $0.012 and sold it at $0.135 a few weeks ago. I bought SSN in 2009 and sold a few weeks ago.

    I don't expect all of my dirty-cheap fishes give me 10 baggers but do hope 2 of 30 fishes are 10 baggers or I could get the collective effects of 10 baggers for my portfolio every year.

    I am working on to update my mind for risk control. Everything could make the money and destroy the money, which I believe. We make ourselves to be losers or winners.

    I post all of my thought in our blog, Blogs - Member Blogs. If you are interested, please just have a look.

    There are good or bad black swans

    As you mentioned that there were a lot of black swans, which could be good or bad, which are improbable to happen but market just triggers them unprecedentedly.

    The key is to find the places where there will be a lot of black swans and we find the worst place to wait for good black swans. If bad black swans could kill our money when we lose the consciousness, we should be able to use our consciousness not what we see by eye to catch up the good black swans.

    Don't forget W. Buffett and his Cigar Butt Theory


    He did play in the market as a Cigar Butt Collector before he started to hold the flag "buying and holding!"

    He has to "buy and hold" since he has too much money! We do need to buy low and sell high in future in the circle we are the best first!

    Do I want to buy and hold? I really want but not now!