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Trading ORO: Its dream of Rare Earth

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 31st Mar, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ORO today announced that Program of Works for the Mr Barrett Project has been approved and 900m drilling program on the M12 target is scheduled to commence on the 18th April 2011.

    I bought it at $0.002 on March 2009 for 1,000,000 shares and joined its right issue at $0.0025 for another 670,000 shares when the market was fearful its dying. Since then I ride on the market with it patiently. If it could not die, it has to find the way out of the hell.

    I don't know and don't want to know how dreadful it is now until some good enough events or black swans happen. I do believe future is unpredictable. I do believe mining pennies are very good for their survival.

    Good to see it not die in the GFC. Good to see it moves into Rare Earth race. I feel if it could hit on some blocks of rare earth, the market herd would chase after it and then I should think if I should sell my ticket of the party to someone. I like to see the crowd happily for their pleasant time rather than for myself drunk in the party!

    Could Australia stock market be in the correction forever? Chance could be waited if we could not make. To ORO, it is about whether or not it has the RE. If it has, I would have a 10 baggers counting from $0.007 not $0.0025. What the difference between $0.007 - 0.0025? It is the reward for the bargain hunting function. What the 10 baggers from $0.007? It is the reward from some good black swans if they could appear.

    As a bargain hunter, ORO has given what I want but I feel I need to wait for the black swan since it looks so likely even not sure. I like others' dream become true if I could give a hand.

    ORO goes!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Questions to bargain hunters?

    Bargain hunters usually move into the market when the discount to the future price looks to be highly probable. However what we expect and what we really get in future always two different matters. If right, we don't need to concern since it is what it should go. However the most scared matters are the falling knife: it turns a complete wrong and all of capital to the falling knife gone.

    1. how could we buy the bargains without falling knifes?

    2. how could we let the winners go long enough to cover all of the costs including the capital wiped out by the falling knife?

    3. how could we diversify enough and use time average to avoid all of our bargains are falling knifes?

    4. how could we know the residual value of the bargains and buy it in discount to the residual value?

    5. how could we identify the future possible explosive events which is high probable but not known by the market mass?

    6. how could we find the causes which would last much longer than the time we buy and then we could turn ourselves to be investors for much longer time?

    7. how could we hold our portfolio steady and then let two dirty-cheap fishes to be 10 baggers?

    These two 10 baggers could be very significant; if we evenly diversify our capital, 80% of theme just keep the price what we paid, two 10 baggers to a portfolio of 30 fishes means 20/30, 66% profit to the portfolio; in most case you could get better or wore profit but unlikely you would lose the shirt.

    So in system view, your portfolio must be at least very stable and some become 2-20 baggers. So if we take 50% return as a must sale goal and we could get all of the questions here answered as we expect, we would be very happy in the market.

    What if we could not answer the questions properly? Do the home work and think again and again until we could get the right answers.

    8. how could we get the first bucket of gold using value investment principle, rules, guideline, and the necessary skill to see the piled gold ahead?

    We need wisdom and intelligence. We need the system which could mix with our existing wisdom and intelligence and we need to leave room for both us and the system updated without losing of the fail-safe.
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Rare earths worth a shot for IT minnow

    It is not bad as ORO shareholders to see "Rare earths worth a shot for IT minnow" Rare earths worth a shot for IT minnow

    ***
    IT is not worth to know!

    1. What he knows about information technology solutions is not worth knowing. So he is not going to waste time talking about the on-line back-up and recovery service.

    2. But its push in to rare earths exploration in Western Australia is another matter. It has got to be worth a shot given that Data Motion’s life as an IT solutions provider has not exactly set the world on fire.

    3. The group’s 3.69 billion ordinary shares have been trading at all of 0.3 cents each. Not 3 cents a share. Three-tenths of 1 cent a share.

    4. Add all that together and you get a company valued by the market at $14.68 million against which it is holding cash of about $1.6 million. There has got to be more to life as an ASX company than that, which is why rare earths exploration has been added to the mix.

    ***
    Rare earths, the way to shoot up?

    1. In the world of rare earths, Lynas Corporation has set the world on fire. There is huge enthusiasm around the world for its Mount Weld project in WA to help break China’s stranglehold on rare earth supplies.

    2. China controls the world’s rare earths industry, accounting for as much as 96 per cent of supply. Rare earths are increasingly found in high-end applications, including compact fluorescent light bulbs, flat panel displays, iPads, automotive catalytic converters and rechargeable batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles. They are all areas of boom demand at a time when non-Chinese sources of rare earths are few and far between.

    3. Lynas is now a $4.3 billion company, coming from nowhere in the last couple of years. And its Mount Weld project is all set to go, with a downstream processing facility in Malaysia to follow later in the year, all with the help of some cheap Japanese finance.

    ***
    Little in hands but all in future?

    1. In complete contrast, Data Motion is only starting out as a rare earths explorer. Its key property, Mount Barrett, is in the same neck of the woods as Mount Weld. And it shares a similar, albeit deeper seated, gravity/magnetic geophysical signature.

    2. But that’s all. The true test of Mount Barrett’s geology will come when it is tested by the drill bit.

    3. A rig has been booked to do just that. So we will know before long if we should think about Data Motion as an IT solutions provider or a genuine rare earths explorer.

    ***
    Deep linkage since IT booming and bust?


    1. Cheering on Data Motion is Oroya Mining which is another minnow with a last sale price of 0.7 cents a share.

    2. Data Motion is earning a 70 per cent interest in Mount Barrett from Oroya, leaving Oroya with a 30 per cent free carried interest during the exploration phase.

    3. Oroya also holds 4.5 per cent of Data Motion.
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    The management team in DMN seems a speculative one. Doesn't know if it is good to build a efficient and effective business to grow for a long term but its history shows it could speculate very well before and while some fads affect all in the market.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    It caught up the fads of 1995/1996 and 1999/2000 IT fads. It caught up the fads of 2005/2006. If you want to know the fads its intention and movement is worth to follow. However when you follow it you have to know the risks if you jump in too late.

    I bought ORO at $0.002 which was much lower than its historical means of its historical bottom trend. I would like to see DMN could get a lot of rarity metals. How could we get a position earlier than the most brave speculators? If we could do so, we would get the high leverage with little risks to lose the principal. Without risk to lose the principal, I really hope ORO could be $0.1 or better $0.2 again, which only could be swung by the rare earth discovery in my view.

    If DMN could hit a huge rarity metal rock, it would be re-rated. If DMN could be re-rated, my ORO would be 10 baggers from $0.07 at least. Could it be $0.30? Don't know but likely. The beauty is if it could be true and I could hold until it is true, ORO would double my capital again! What if it could not? DMN would lose a lot of principal but I would lose my paper profit. Not too bad so far!

    Good luck DMN and if it is good and ORO would be good, and my life would be great! Market is beautiful since it could generate good black swans after the bad one hit something to the doorstep of the hell. It is not always but really often to do so! Hope DMN could catch the rare earth craziness in future.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th Apr, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    A lot of people in the market follow the news or announcement to make their decision of buying, holding, and selling around the dirty cheap fishes. Some bargain hunters put most of their principals or the cash they could move around into one or two dirty-cheap fishes. Both these two kinds of market players fail to know two different sides of dirty-cheap fishes;

    1>. the falling knife possibility, which is low probable but high negative consequent.

    2>. the leverage of profit as option, which could shoot one dirty-cheap fish into the sky.

    They usually believe on one side but don't give the room for another side. They are brave to come into a place with promising but they could not understand the expected value of each shares has.

    The brave but not confident players would sell for penny profit when they take the risks of their dollars. The brave but too confident players hope to make killings if the consequence is great. The first ones put the cap on the profit. The second one ignore the chances they could be in the hell.

    We need to be right and patient for 10 baggers. We need to filter out the effects of falling knife for "no loss" rule strategically to our portfolios. ORO has the potential to make a killing for you but it also could keep its dirty cloth over its body in the future.

    All in all we could not lead by anything but not our insight, strategical views, and careful designed plan to make our profit way. Do I read the news? Of course! But I want to see both sides clearly and wisely for a balance movement and only allow the affordable capital into the fighting in the valleys of death in the market.

    Collecting the data of the hot spots, analyzing the probability, sensing the value, and deciding when to hold'em and unfold'em 1,000 miles away from the hot spots in your study room, is the only way to win in the market for long run. If we could do so, life is good and the retirement time is our most glory time!
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    All of market players without matter what they play need the dreams but most of them fail to let their dreams have the background of reality. The dream have get great link to reality through the margin of safety. Could you dream comfortably in a sinking boat in a turbulent and volatile big river?

    We need let our mind peaceful and comfortable first and then the dream would make you life much more colorful. It is art to dream in the market with the profit in long run. That's the beauty of the saying "no loss" in your market playing. "No loss" and only having the chances of 10 baggers based on what you could see in history, present, and future, is great platform to dream.

    When most of people around ORO struggle to guess where it would go, the margin of safety from $0.006 - 0.002 gives me the chances to dream and dream very comfortable. What if it fails to find the rare earth metals? No worries! What if it succeeds to find the rare earth all of the market now want to hold? You would get a killing.

    Here you don't need genius mind and high IQ if you have the margin of safety to know the future outcomes very clearly:

    1. great rare earth metal in hand
    2. no rare earth metal in hand but ORO seems have some other asset to stop it close the door.

    I am very happy I am a fool but know the importance of the margin of safety. The tsunamis come and go. The sky seems no such risks to fall down again. Now worries to Australia market is about China. What if China could successfully soft land? Most of market players now just could see the darkness but worries are the best friends to the market players. One of my friends asked what was the most happy things to me in the market? My answer is I pay the least for what I want. I am happy to see I never buy at the peak when I feel extremely good if I could! I am not happy since so far I could not always buy not at peak!

    Unfortunately no any one of my friends would like to hear what I said since they do want the quick money and don't like to hear this silly life logic. Now I lean never talk about this kind of truth with my friends since I don't want them upset too much. Do hope I could go well with the margin of safety and let the fact to wake them up. If you don't like life logic, you would never get it!