The global economies have been hit by the worst disease in 70 years. The more economies indicators have shown it turns better but looks definitely not out of the woods. News said "The panel of economists responsible for identifying changes in the U.S. business cycle said Monday that it's "premature" to say whether the recession that began in 2007 has ended." It is a rational statement from a authorized institution who could declare the beginning and ending of the recession. The news and the statement of NBER are in the followings: Economists: Recession isn't over yet - Apr. 12, 2010 Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research Very interesting facts are the peak and the trough or end of the recessions are usually declared much later than the time they happen: The December 2007 peak was announced December 1, 2008. The November 2001 trough was announced July 17, 2003. The March 2001 peak was announced November 26, 2001. The March 1991 trough was announced December 22, 1992. The July 1990 peak was announced April 25, 1991. The November 1982 trough was announced July 8, 1983. The July 1981 peak was announced January 6, 1982. The July 1980 trough was announced July 8, 1981. The January 1980 peak was announced June 3, 1980. From the above data it could be seen all of the peak and end were declared more than half year later. In the transition time among the peak and end, if economy indicators strong enough to confirm the peak or end, the committee would review the economy data for judgment of the economy status. W. Buffett said we should be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful. NBER should waste its time to announce a intermediate statement about economy if it could not feel the recovery of the economy and concern the market sentiment. I translate this not "out of woods" as a good signal of the economies in the backdrop of the worst crisis in 70 years. If we could have enough reserve cash to avoid the sale on fire, and in years of boom prospective we move into the market at each dip of the market, we should get a very good position to get the discount. EU agreed to bail out Greece even it would not claim what it would do, would be bailing out. The weakest point in EU seems more stronger and market sentiment would be better. In the crisis the most powerful enemy to the economy is the fear. I have put all of my movable cashes into the market between Dec 2008 and March 2009, and the correction between Nov 2009 - Feb 2010. Not sure how good or bad of the recovery before the next boom but I do hope before I use up my cash reserve, the boom could pass by the trough. I feel it would be a matter in a year and very likely we have been there.