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Trading PDY: High Grade IO discovered

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 9th Feb, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Perth
    Market at last knows PDY is a IO hopeful minnow. Today it announces some high grade IO has been discovered in its tenement and then its price jumps from $.032 to $0.04. Now it is priced at $0.039 around.

    As the global economies come back into its normal track, more IO would be needed. To PDY its future is linked to the IO. Market could push its price down when the herd feels no hope but if it has huge IO, the wind would change the course at last.

    I would hold my PDY shares until the worries about China crashing are gone. I don't believe there are any force could be bigger than GFC which could drag XAO back to 4000.

    Hope PDY could break though the peak before GFC very soon while being ready for any unprecedented bad black swans!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Hold or sell? It is a question you have to ask after something happen. What's the base rate arguments for you holding and selling options? The fade or wind across the fence or some very basic logic which should be right in all of the time if market is there? I want to hold but what're the reasons for me to hold? Are they rational not conventional as most of the market players or traders do follow? I don't want to follow most of the market players since they would lose sooner or later. What are they doing or planning to do?

    I want to hold since IO is scarce resource to BRIC. I want to hold since it is just at its very beginning to be a IO hopeful producer and it has long way to throw the weak minds out of its up trend. I want to hold since it has given me enough margin of safety. Why do see the negative side? If it has the IO, it should be a magnet to attract more and more bargain hunters in let alone some venture capital. Are you sure? Never be sure in the market but it is exploring the explosive powders to shoot it up!

    10 baggers at least need two essential conditions: 1. extremely buying price, which is ok for my Pdy holding; 2. some unrecognized explosive powders it work hard to make, which is the IO and the bigger the higher will it shoot up; 3. some gut to lose your capital and profit, which could be quite big such as PDY gives to me now. I got it at $0.005 and $0.013.

    We need to be aggressive at the right time at right position. I feel Pdy is at this time at this position. What if I am wrong? I have other fishes which are exploring the explosive powders too such as BKP, ARC, ARH, SIR, AUZ, ORO, AXM, and so on. All of them have been got when no one wanted them. Could I expect their days are moving in?

    Aussies are very intelligent and have retreated from market for very long time. Could they be intelligent enough to jump in at sometime this year or next year to catch up the first up-waves after V-shape recovery? A lot of my friends worry about the bad news but they fail to understand what the threshold could tip off Australia stock market. We just worry about how much we could get in days or months but why don't we think how much we could get in a year for a better gain tax and some predictable gains?

    Pdy to me is a matter about yes/no. Yes it would be much more than $0.035. No it would be back to where it should be. I feel it has more than 70% chances to be yes. In Casino if you could be sure every betting you could get winning odds more than 70%, you have to diversify your betting and collect the chips from the table along the way. I do feel the market in a year have more chance to be up than down!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Feb, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It seems big investors are still holding on their position. The traders actually are playing PDY for a game of zero-sum. They always get the money from one pocket to another one but big winners have to hold some right vision with some good patience. The winners have to play the cause-effect game even the cause at its very beginning is hard to identify.

    I bought for its IO and hold for its IO since I trust my reading about the IO around Pdy's tenement. We could not be sure all but IO is the matter of Vital Few. If it is right everything should be right. Frankly saying I worry about my profit which are about 250% around but I hate to cut the feet of the winners naturally.

    If we could not let winners run we would be the losers. Have to say sometimes I let the winners run too long. Have I let my winners in PDy run too long? I still could not convince myself so I have to hold. Too many fishes are struggling in the dried land, which let me feel happy while I see Pdy run up even some dragging back! It is very challenging to get the profit from the uncertainty. I hope I could steer myself wisely in strategy!
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    JRC would tell where it goes!

    It moves up again and the cause is evident that market players around it expects the JRC.

    As always, the resource size and quality will decide the price for all of mining shares. PDY has shown it has resource but until JRC we could not know enough. In the uncertainties, people tend to speculate but to the bargain hunters it is important to know the noises and signals. Some of us want to play for safety and be happy for small profit. However it is never the case for 10 baggers in the market.

    I would wait for the JRC and would like to get my strategic goal to hold the winners until I find I am not rational anymore. I do feel it is at a cross point to make it or fail it. All is about JRC!
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Trading Halt-Maiden JORC estimation

    PDY at last comes to the point to show how much IO resource it could get from its Peak Hill Iron Ore. Today it announced that it would halt its trading in the market for this JORC estimation.

    I have held it for more than a year which I got at the worst time since GFC. Could it move up over $0.10? If so, it would be a very pleasant matter to all of PDY players.
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Rolf Voulonm and PDY IO

    Cashing in estate: remains of Talbot empire up for sale

    1. Substantial investor in IO

    Rolf Voulon, the owner of a therapeutic massage venue and self-described in web ads as ''Perth's best landlord helps unemployed with homes'', has added another item to his credits, substantial investor in iron ore.

    Voulon's corporate stable has bobbed up with a little more than 5 per cent of Padbury Mining. It is Aurium's joint venture partner in the yet-to-be-refined Peak Hill iron ore discovery.

    2. Failed attempts to control PDY and Value of PDY

    Last year Padbury was fighting for its existence with one of Perth's better known mining landlords, Tony Sage. His company, Fe Ltd, was both trying to take it over and roll the board. Sage lost both battles.

    Voulon told Insider yesterday that he was certainly not associated with the Sage camp, but reckoned that Padbury was on a good thing and was undervalued by the market at its current price of 3ยข a share.

    3. Time to see it is working or not

    Some time this week he may have a good idea whether the play is working because Padbury's delayed JORC report, the only estimates for a mineral deposit acceptable to the ASX, is expected to be released.

    4. Movement of PDY's management team

    Padbury's managing director, Gary Stokes, told the market a month ago that the company had ''expressed its strong dissatisfaction'' to the lab doing the sampling about the delays, which meant there would be no report until late this month.

    Stokes is now at a mining conference in Hong Kong, along with a fair portion of the local exploration industry, and his chairman, John Saunders, is reportedly in Beijing chatting to potential buyers of the ore.

    ***
    ROLF VOULON's Experience

    Managing Director
    Perpetual Capital Investments Pty Ltd
    Mining & Metals industry
    Currently holds this position
     
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    PDY: Another dream land?

    Could not say I am excited but really feel not too bad after I read a article in TheWest website. Padbury plan may yet get it a slice of Oakajee action - The West Australian

    I have to say no news from this article but it definitely is talking about some vital few in PDY. At $0.029, its total market cap is about $46million, which looks ridiculously if you consider its 800millonT JORC IO resource.

    The ugly duck is hard to be taken as white swan even it looks more and more like a swan. Most of us could not forget it acted as a duck, sounds as a duck, and just a few months ago FEL tried to buy it at rubbish!

    I feel good or bad when its price up/down. I felt disappointed too after its JORC resources were reported. However Japan needs IO to rebuild. China could have a lot of ghost cities but people still need the house and IO.

    PDY any has IO now. PDY is planing to play the IO strategically. PDY is trying to play its IO with the transport infrastructure. Could it do a high performance play to attract more eyeball blinks?

    Do hope it is my 10 baggers and think I have got the value and margin of safety with it. I could wait.