Positive cashflow properties not far away

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Jacque, 3rd Feb, 2009.

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  1. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

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    02Bsure

    Ok so we've had our dry years and it's time for the rain to come back isn't?
     
  2. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    I would also argue that he did receive some entitlements from TV station for his interview. Mr. Keen wasn’t keen to tell us what is going to do with 500K+ received from the sale of his Sydney unit. No advise there from the wise men. The only advise was to get out of property market. Very irresponsible advise.

    My understanding is if you live with parents and you study and don’t work to make more than 11K per year you will not get a cent.

    It always hurts people around you and one day you will feel it too. You have to learn between arrogance and self confidence.


    Just keep reading what we write :D
     
  3. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    If anyone took your advise four years ago they would miss on share market bull run.
    Everyone knew at the time the bubble will burst but no one could say when. The same today, everyone seems to know we are going to get out of this but no one knows the timing.
     
  4. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree, my super did exceptionally well in the time too
     
  5. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    If you are talking about that line from the movie Without A Paddle, definitely one of the funniest lines in a movie I have heard!

    So where do you see being the place to draw your metaphorical water from in these tough times, aka what areas are you expecting to perform well over the coming couple of years?

    We were in a massive monsoon from mid 90s up until 2007, so I think this draught has a few more years to run yet.

    I'm not entitled because I make more than 100K a year.


    I'm well aware of the difference between the two, and I can appreciate the most likely situation of someone confusing self confidence with arrogance is when they are unaware of what someone is basing their self confidence on.

    So for example if you see someone acting with a lot of self confidence and maybe a touch of cockiness you might perceive that to be arrogance unless you know why they conducted themselves in such a way. That individual may have built up a massive amount of self esteem over their years from the numerous small and large victories and achievements they have made in their lives, in which case acting with self confidence is justified because they are confident in their abilities based on past performances. Of course the alternative would be that they are arrogant and are unjustified in their self belief given they have yet to proven themselves to themselves or others.

    Then of course there are always the people in the world that think we are all born equal and there can be genuine equality in the world, I just don't happen to subscribe to the same belief. For these people anyone acting superior to anyone else is arrogant at best.

    And of course there are always those people that just want to cut someone down to size due to their own inferiority complexes.

    If only that were true, a bubble can really only inflate to any level of significance based on continued delusions. Theoretically the bubble could be sustained forever as long as no one wises up.

    No one knows the timing because there are so many things that institutions (government and central banks) can do to slow the correction process down. Of course they will claim that they are just trying to manufacture a softer landing, but it is quite debatable just how much influence they have. Where as I'd argue that their manipulation, whilst may not stop the severity of the recession, they are assuring the the recession is more prolong that it otherwise would be, or in a best case scenario they prop the system up enough to offset the recession for some time in the future.
     
  6. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    No Chris, we had Sept11, we had SARS, we had Asian crisis. We experienced few bumps since 1990’s. Just because we didn't feel it as much as the rest of the word you can't ignore it or forget about it.

    Also let me ask a question:

    What do you think war on terror cost us up to day and would you be able to acknowledge the fact that it contributed to massive debt levels we are facing today?
     
  7. AsxBroker

    AsxBroker Well-Known Member

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    And SARS killed more people. I think one guy in Europe committed suicide but he was selling Madoffs managed funds...

    The War on Terror is an interesting subject, what a waste of money, health and education would have been a much better place to spend a few billion. How come with all the technology the US have they can't find one person? Does anyone want to start conspiracy theories on this?
     
  8. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    Guns will make us powerful; butter will only make us fat.
    ---Hermann Göring (1936) :D
     
  9. Handyandy

    Handyandy Well-Known Member

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    Its called full disclosure:D:p
     
  10. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    of them even registered when it came to M3 growth and debt expansion. They were all like a couple sunny days in this proverbial wet season.

    Not Australia's debt levels, if you are talking about the US, it definitely has contributed to their problem, but they got far bigger issues than a couple expansive wars in the Middle East. Even if they stopped them tomorrow it would only marginally affect their budget, and it definitely wouldn't come anywhere near getting them into budget surplus.

    If the US returned all its troops from all their stations all around the world (they have troops stationed in 130 countries around the world) then yeah you could talk about some pretty big savings, but even then I don't see this as being the BIG issue.

    Through I'm increasing thinking the war on terror is a propaganda joke cenltering around keeping the masses fearful and governments powerful. I figure religion was loosing its grip on the masses as a result of education so they needed to engineer something new. Hats off to them though - it had me hook line and sinker for a few years there.

    The war on drugs is much the same, it's a joke, there is way too much money being made for there to be any real inroads made against it.

    LOL - Don't start me. Though the truth is Osama is dead, but the war is profitable, therefore it shall continue.
     
  11. 02bsure

    02bsure Well-Known Member

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    I think there many people out there who think they're sitting pretty with their 'amassed war chest' ready to pounce once bargains are staring them in the face (and yes, I count myself amongst them).

    For instance, I think many have exactly the same game plan to buy oil futures, gold/silver, agriculture and basic material stocks / futures.

    Trouble is, I also think the issues this time are far larger than most are anticipating. For instance many here talk in terms of 911, Sars or LTCC. This highlights the level of ignorance and unpreparedness that exists.

    My feeling is that before you see these fabulous investing opportunities emerge you will likely first experience calamity such as a currency collapse, a nationalisation of the banking industry or massive debt forgiveness that also wipes out savings. What implications arise from this type of event are of course not predictable. At this point you will no doubt be slamming the keyboard with replies such as '...and an asteroid might hit the earth, get real' so I'll once again encapsulate this with the obligatory , 'imo'.

    Furthermore, since about 1996 every dolt in the western world was liberated with a broadband connection and granted free shot at self-investing via an on-line account. The result has been a fabulous boon for finance industry. It was also from that point in time that I noticed 'irrational exuberance' commence (hats off to Greenspan for at least seeing and remarking on that). Prior to the broadband age markets were remarkably different from today. For example investing in a typical blue cap stock meant receiving a dividend and perhaps a 2 or 3% capital gain for the YEAR, not for a WEEK or a DAY. If you wanted to speculate you would naturally buy a into a small start up or some riskier company and perhaps outperform the market and receive 8 or even 15% capital gain (but no dividend) or perhaps make a bad loss. What fuelled the situation was the massive expansion of the securitisation market for credit derivatives (basically commenced in 1990 but grew exponentially in its following). These items summed together have created the massive Ponzi asset prices we have today (in practically every asset class) all built on debt sums so large that they can never be repaid.

    I'm also amazed by the differences that exist culturally. It seems to me that the anglo's wear their entire wealth on their sleeve whilst Germans for example are extraordinarily conservative (well, atleast within their own country). Perhaps its this compulsion to display wealth that has led us to where we are today.
     
  12. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    These are all the assets I'm in or looking at buying into. So were you implying that you feel these aren't a good buy at this stage? Or that you don't think they will ever be a good buy?

    What is your feeling on the timing of something like this? Also which currencies do you see most at risk? Pound? USD? Or do you subscribe to the Euro falling to political issues?

    What do you see as the major reprecautions of the USD collapsing?

    I'm personally of the opinion it's on its last legs and that the next few months may be the beginning of the long awaited US bond market collapse, though in my mind I find it difficult to envisage the ramifications of what the world would be like if the world's reserve currency collapses... I'd love to hear your view.

    So would your defense against such an event would be to have money in physical gold?

    So once again what is your defense against such a fall out? Gold and other hard assets?

    The Germans have had a couple of tough lessons (WWI & WWII) in frugality and contribution in the last 100 years. Whilst those of us not living in Europe more than likely had ancestors that didn't have the opportunity to learn the wonderful lesson of just how quickly things can change and just how tough life can get.