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Trading PPX: 0.091, a not worst buying!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 12th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    Guess today is a worst day in this crash season. So try to buy some at worst price. Fortunately I got some PPX at $0.091 and am happy to see a gap between buying and selling price, 0.091 - 0.095.

    Now all of the price could not be marked by so called fundamental reasons. It is about the sentiment of the market as a whole. In tech point of view I am always happy to buy anything with the price gap. It usually tells me the market has done bad or good enough!

    Of course if the sky falls down PPX price would be zero. However if DOW would not fall down another 3 digit number, it could be a excellent buying!

    Fortunately it has been hit by all of internal or external troubles and its price actually has been crashed so dramatically and then its trading volume is very thin, much thinner than anytime in its history.

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    It is hard to think it will close the door even it is hard to revive as it did in 2007/2008. It was your and my unfortunates since I had made a lot of mistakes between April and June, otherwise I could buy more from you for your less pains in the ruins.

    Fortunately I still have some capital which could be moved. It gives me another chance to lower the service cost for my loved warriors. I will try all to give them the best service!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Sep, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    One thing needs to be remembered!

    Don't trust what you feel and believe too much in the market!

    Why? It is because

    1. You might not know the applied conditions and context
    2. You might know some but the market just gives the card which should be less probable
    3. You might make calculation errors because you are human even you are very excellent.

    Every time when I put full trust on myself, I make some silly mistakes. It doesn't mean we always mistakes but in the market the mistakes are fatal and profit just makes you feel better.

    Could market fall down for another month or two months? Quite possible! I want to lower the cost but I could fail so just because the market is crazy. However as a market businesslike player, you could not blame anyone else. If you do so you have lost half for what you do.

    Today I really wanted to buy BSL, QBE, and OST but gave up at last. I could be wrong and market could crash them without any notice to me. I need to average my buying in the market crashing time. It could be shorter or longer than my expectation. It is easy to buy but buying and winning is difficult. Don't forget it is the time to break the wings of the bargain genius!

    If BSL, QBE, and OST could be sold much lower while EURO becomes more panic and then drives everything down, I might or not buy depending on my judgment of the micro and micro economies. Would everything much lower? Quite likely. Patience, organization, logic, and profit for self-reliance are very important! Lowering the cost and keeping my portfolio value intact are two different direct goals for my strategic goal, no loss of my portfolio in worst time!

    All of the actions are measures for goals. I should not forget it at any time! Asia was selling; Europe is selling; US will sell tonight seemingly. If everyone would sell Aussies would sell too tomorrow. I do want to buy something tomorrow with the margin of safety. The margin of safety is the key!

    Are you sure the trend will be bullish after you buy? Not sure and no any systems or trend lines or wave theories could tell you! Get the buffers for your errors!

    We know too much and then we don't know anything which could be absolutely right! If you thought your option is absolutely right, you are a bloody idiot who could have not chances to understand the art of life and market!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Sep, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What's the catches?

    Each glamor idea and approach to play in the market has its own bliss and catches. When we believe somethings we tend to think about blesses more than the catches. That is why so many genius break their wings and so many warriors cry in the ruins at moment.

    Seriously speaking the current market is the grave yard to burn the money from bargain hunters since all of other types of warriors have lost their shirts already and only the toughest bargain hunters have some hopes to buy in the ruins. However the storm seems no sign to end and the market goes up in one day and down in another day. So more and more become long term investors even most of bargain hunters have been trapped there. What happen is the trading volume become thinner and thinner. The holders could not sell and the buyers suck their cuts in their cave with tears and pains.

    Is it good? Definitely not but what could you do now? Want to trade the trend? No trend at all! Want to stop loss? Most of the market have used the stop-losses again again. Who are the winners? Since April no winners at all!

    Do you feel it has dropped down enough? Yes? Don't be so confident for your trend. It could drop down another 2-6% tomorrow morning! All of warriors would pay more and more in this attrition war. A lot of them would get some life-lessons. GFC told them what problems of "buying and holding"; V-shape recovery told them what problems of "stop losses"; the consolidation between Oct 2009 and April 2011 told them what problems of trend could be; the existing crash told bargain hunters that everything could be much cheaper than their happy bargaining price!

    It is insane to stick on one assertion without sense of the environment and our own affordability! Any approaches could make money and destroy the money! The key is you should know your approaches inside and outside.

    What do you think your positions? Do you know the catches for your judgment and decision? It is not a problem for the bliss of your approaches but the catches could kill your money and wipe you out of the market! It is a time for wisdom not approaches only!

    Don't forget it is the time for catches to play their parts if you just see everything for days! However if you have sold before May and get 70% of your capital in cash or cash-equivalent, it is time to put 20% of your cash back to the stock market and put another 30% into the market in the beginning of Nov; and hold for a bullish leg, which should last for months if not years!

    Are you sure? Not 100% sure since it is bliss if we could wake up tomorrow morning, let alone it is the time nothing could be trustful for Aussie warriors! Very fearful and very promising! Which would you pick up? God blesses you if you choose the right option!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Sep, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Sold OTE and bought more PPX

    Continue to rebalance my portfolio. So sold OTE at $0.017 and bought more PPX at $0.084. In short term don't know how the market votes for but I would like to accumulate PPX if the dropping is big enough and the volume just tell the selling is done by some desperate warriors trapped there!

    I do feel the selling was from some bargain hunters who traded PPX for profit in days who corrected their faults when the whole market is up. I try to look for the picture in January 2012 with affordable risks and balance of my portfolio!

    It seems all of market jump to the blue chips and sell others to capitalize their jumping! We are still very fearful especially the bargain hunters, most of whom didn't do better than me between April - Sept.

    However all of turning points come with some great surprises to the toughest bargain hunters. Don't expect this turning would happen in Sept or Oct but it seems unavoidable in a year!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th Sep, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Sold BSL at $0.7

    PPX seems have too many retail bargain hunters and institutional big boys who desperately want to get out! It surprised me a lot. To compensate the loss in PPX, I just sold BSL at $0.7 with some profit.

    I could feel their hurt and pains. Today the trading volume burst to 20 million around. Could more of these bargain hunters throw their money on the fire? Don't know but I was surprised by the volume. I was surprised to see this burst in volume just drag its price to $0.079 only. It seems a huge support to PPX's current price could be formed. However while it could signal a turning point it could be the start of further selling. By the way the price dropping is quite high in percentage.

    If it is a turning point, I would be benefited. If it will sell further, I should not buy until it could be stabilized. I want to rebalance my portfolio but not to introduce new risks. In June 2010, its tangible asset per share is $0.40. In June 2011, its tangible asset per share is $0.27. Its cash asset is $1,540, its current debt is $846, its total debt is $1,194, and its current ratio is 1.8 times. Its market cap is $251.4 around against shareholder equity, $736m.

    In 2010, the market seemed happy to hold above $0.40 but this time it seems not trust it any more. If PPX could turn better, it is a very good bargain between $0.08-0.09. However it is hard to count the fundamental to hold when the market is selling!!! Me too especially I could not introduce any new and significant risks to my portfolio. That is why I have to sell BSL and OTE(the profit from them are bigger than the paper loss of PPX) to capitalize my buying and paper loss in PPX.

    The problem is always that we don't know the future and the shorter could use the sentiment to push its price down further. However it should not be a problem since even in 2011/2012 it would write of more asset, its tangible asset should be bigger than $0.10. The problem to me is my cash reserve and when I should accumulate more in its crash road for enough margin of safety.

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    Anyway I have done enough this time!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th Sep, 2011