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Qantas

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Chris C, 5th Jun, 2012.

  1. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Wow... so Qantas share price has been hammered - $1.15!

    I know earnings are down, but it's trade at a P/B or 0.42 and whilst the current PE will obviously blow out, the 10 year CAPE would have to be well below 5 if not below 4 now, which makes you think if the company can sort itself out and get back to even some semblance of its former glory it'll be a great investment.

    I'm not saying the company is without problems, high debt, falling margins, low sales growth, etc but I can't help but feel it's been oversold at this point.

    I think in 3 - 5 years time Qantas will be either bankrupt or people will look back at this price and think it was the sale of the century.

    :rolleyes:

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Another view to a kill !
    That's what long term buy and hold "strategy" is all about.

    In theory, the best level to buy is $0.00, so in QAN case, only $1.155 to go...:eek:
     

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  3. Andrew Newman

    Andrew Newman Well-Known Member

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    Hi Chris

    Looking at a recent Qantas report, the 10 year change in earnings per share has been about minus 10% per annum, return on equity is below 5% and debt to equity stands close to 100%.

    Kind Regards
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    "Buy and hold" are three words only, which are too little to fill the gap between our imaginary world and real world.

    However it can do fill some gaps under some context or conditions if you don't guess or believe you are genius:

    1. Is it wost time for the desperate or crazy warriors who just know the lines and patterns? What's day outside? Zoom out for holistic view!

    2. Can QAN be survival?

    3. What is it really worth after all of the weak hands of QAN gone?

    4. Are you sure? Read and ponder about the risk or invert for sure

    5. Repeat step 4 until you are really sure

    6. Are you happy for the margin of safety of QAN at the price you would like to pay? Check the root. Zoom in for details.

    7. Are you sure the margin strong enough for yourself and only yourself? Forget anything else and focus on this question.

    8. Repeat step 7 until you are really sure.

    9. Get 5% of your capital you would like to put into stock market into QAN

    10. Would you like to trade or buying and holding?

    I do prefer to buy and hold for some good enough profit for direct goal, some income for each of my year, or indirect goal, rolling my small ball a little bit bigger.

    However it doesn't really matter since you have done enough for your human errors even it is sure you can buy and hold with diversities and time averaging or any good tools for your mental framework.

    ***
    Do you know you are not so great and always misunderstand yourselves, others, the market, the economies, the life, and the world? I know and believe so!

    Actually when we cheer for any words without conditions or context, we start to make some mistakes in mouths and when we take actions with these words, we take consequences, which could be good ones if we are lucky.

    ***
    I don't believe lucks anymore in the stock market or any simple disposition of words. The life is colorful. The world is full of challenges. There are seasons.

    It is not wrong but inappropriate that you just take a set of shabby cloth under all of conditions or contexts. If you prefer to take your favorite shabby or glossy clothes only, you should know where you should go or not.

    Are you a value investor? So do you know Buffett said value is allusive and hard to grip on? Are you a trader? So do you know Soros is very serious about economic fundamental? Do you know why in GFC Soros took charge for his business?

    ***
    Do you want to buy QAN now? No! Why?

    There are two speed economies here. QAN seems in the poorer economy now. It might be at the lowest point but the probability is it could be much cheaper if some big boys want to sold out for tax. It fails to be considered in item 1 even it just passes in Item 2.

    Let the tsunami in and let the warriors run. Let us wait for the sun and run under the sun with QAN or not!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Jun, 2012
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Why don't you go jump of a cliff without a parachute ?
    If you survive, jump again...
     

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  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    GFC gave me a lesson: it is difficult to be survive and you have to learn to jump a little bit later after all jump down the cliff.

    1. Luckily I jumped in between Nov 2008 - March 2009 after all under the cliff.

    2. Unfortunately/fortunately I became crazy in April 2011 even I knew some bad things would happen. I did hope the bad events could come in just two month later for my better tax deduction.

    3. Hot head if turned to be frozen too quick would cause more traumas. Unfortunately/fortunately I used guesses to bet until the damages had been done.

    4. The truth is nothing can save you if you break the basis: don't run in the eyes of tsunami. Never and ever!

    I paid the cost to be wiser and I try all to waste for what I have paid. I am working on my mental framework.

    ***
    All of words such as buying and holding, stopping losses, or patterns don't work in the eye of tsunami. Tropo, could you ask yourself and answer it seriously?

    Too many traders and investors just argue for their own feelings. The truth is if Greece exit all are losers for at least a few months. Both of Soros and Buffett wrap up if they could see the cliff ahead.

    Tropo tends to joke others or himself or cry for the darkness. It is good to the people who can learn and want to be wise.

    ***
    We need to learn from Soros as traders; We need to learn from Buffett as investors for logic not just stick to some words from them.

    Any words are linked to some necessary or sufficient conditions for winning out.

    Why don't you learn from Livermore? I do and I would not make any chances to be qualified to trigger the pistol at my head. It makes everything perfect and I dislike the perfect.

    ***
    Why don't you go jump of a cliff without a parachute ?
    If you survive, jump again... Don't you? I will not jump onto the cliff now. I wait for the Sun and would like to run under the sun.

    I locked some profit and rebalanced my portfolio before the May. I would rather lose the chances than run in the tsunami from Greece. We all need more shocks to be sane to recheck the words we believe with the conditions and contexts.

    I can get another job but I would not allow any risks eat my capital if things become worse. Patience is a virtue at moment if not forever.

    ***
    Tropo, listen to me, don't jump in now! I don't want to be your comrades but I hope you can be better off.

    Challenge yourself if you know yourself is your only enemy. You will pay your bill anyway!

    Don't waste the gloomy and doom days and then you can have chances to enjoy the sunny days ahead. Don't forget if all of traders cheer again get out!

    ***
    Just encounter some words: Bull makes the money; Bear makes the money; and Pig gets to be slaughtered.

    Are you a bull, bear, or pig? Don't worry about anyone else if you don't know the answer. Whom was I in last decade? I was one of pigs in the stock market until 2004. Since then sometimes I was a pig, which is truth not my imagination.

    Not easy to turn a pig to a bear or bull, isn't it? Soros is a bear, Buffett is a bull, and Livermore turned to be the biggest pig in 1990s.

    I just don't want to be a pig anymore and hope I would be in the market since I really like it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Jun, 2012
  7. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    I seriously looked in Qantas shares a few days ago when they dipped below $1 and if I first thought just based on instinct that the market had lost its marbles by just looking at PE and P/B, I was starting to feel more sure of that after doing a little research.

    When you look at this results and their reasons for their profit downgrade the vast majority of it was just due to one off circumstances, the biggest being the union action that cost them 100 million (about 30% of their 2011 profit) and high oil price (which affect all airlines - though Qantas arguably doesn't have the most fuel efficient planes yet), but of the Australian airlines they do have the best net margins (even if they are terrible).

    So I was thinking, sure the world might be up the proverbial creek for a couple of years, but if I was more of a speculator I think it's quite easy to see Qantas stock being back above $2 on conservative estimates by 2016 and I would think it probably more likely than not it would be back above $3.

    But alas I told myself not to get involved because I wasn't certain, and even if Qantas does look to be solid airline, it is still a cut-throat industry with constant over capitalisation, and low margins and generally poor ROE relative to the market.

    ... but then the share price started rebounding once it went below $1. So I was kicking myself for not trusting my gut. Then I watched this:

    Qantas Buyout Seen, Assets Worth More Than Shares: Video - Bloomberg

    :cool:
     
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Fairfax

    Well...another view to a kill
     

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  9. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    with due respect ,please take cold shower , followed by a long walk !!
    how can you trust management that lie to each other , the (then)PM and a senate inquiry , vague hints of a div. (the last one was in 2009.. despite "acclaimed" profits) aging aircraft , replacements delayed , management spread T/O rumours when debt was 3 times market cap.

    my family have held these shares before 2006 ( and I keep them now just to vote against management salary packages and director re-elections)(for the $55 transfer fee I owe the family that much ).

    gamble all you like but to call QAN investment quality is very distant to the truth .
    BTW it must be about time for it to get caught for price fixing something again .

    a considerable embarrassment to Queensland , I am afraid.


    buy the way I still hold QAN
     
  10. sav

    sav Member

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    Darwin, NT
    worth speculating?

    so with making losses, ratings downgrade etc. QAN is back down at record lows. will the government step in and save them or is it a dead duck? i'm considering speculating a small amount on the chance that intervention will bring a sharp rise (if it even happens). the recent holden example is not promising but do we need a national carrier? what are your thoughts? (*prepares to get slammed for even considering it lol)
     
  11. Andrew Newman

    Andrew Newman Well-Known Member

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    Melbourne
    Hi sav

    It's you money but I do recall a quote that said: you are better off going to the casino, placing your bets and losing your money quickly.

    Kind Regards
     
  12. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Currently $1.09
     

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  13. jodie123

    jodie123 Active Member

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    I wouldn't touch qantas shares with a 10 foot barge pole.
     
  14. Blueeye

    Blueeye Active Member

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    Sydney
    Around $1.23 per share at the moment... Yep will def stay away I think.