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QBE

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Sargent, 18th Apr, 2018.

  1. Sargent

    Sargent Member

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    14th Mar, 2018
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    Hi Everyone,

    Does anyone think that QBE might be a worthwhile buy at the moment?

    I'm mainly a technical analysis trader and see that it could be at the bottom of a descending triangle pattern (on the monthly chart) i.e. over last 10-13 years.

    I know its a massive company so would be keen to see if anyone thought that it had prospects for a buy-and-hold type trade for the long term.

    Cheers,
    Sarge
     
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  2. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    QLD
    i had a lucky misadventure ( made the wrong moves but made money , anyway ) at my first attempt at QBE

    so i watched and thought about it

    and developed a channel-trading style ( but retaining some of each QBE buy) and allowing the DRP help me out .

    so far i intend to hold ( some ) QBE for life , but that volatility is either scary or a blessing ( for the brave )

    i suggest small well timed buying ( and taking some profit in the peaks )

    if you don't mind the extra effort ( trading more than twice a lifetime ) QBE might be good for you as well

    this company takes risks and bets on them every day .. every customer remember that when assessing the possible rewards

    my style is nibble , nibble , nibble ( and sell SOME in the peaks ) but will also hold some for 'ever '

    load up the truck and sit and forget .??? not for me with this share
     
  3. Sargent

    Sargent Member

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    Haha, yeah - I see what you mean.

    I mis-spoke in my post, I'll probably sell the shares in 2 years.

    I see it finding support circa $8.5 and quickly (6-12 months) rallying to $15-16 but since I do consider that there'll be a wider market move down I'm not convinced now ($9.8) is the time to buy.
     
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  4. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    a hard to predict share , a drop is only a ( major ) natural disaster ( or significant loan default ) away , but it's bread and butter is betting on risk . so SHOULD resist going broke .


    i decided cautious averaging down in my share price was best for me

    with QBE i switched to the IF principle ... IF the SP gets to $xx what will i do ??? ( and wait to see 'if 'it happens )

    market collapse ?? i calculated 2013 looked probable for that , i hope your prediction skills are better than mine

    good luck
     
  5. Sargent

    Sargent Member

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    Yeah, I figured late 2017 was a good time for a correction... but it just keeps going... what's it been 10 years since the last real correction/downturn? Its nearly unprecedented.
     
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  6. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    second longest ( US ) bull market , i believe

    what makes me nervous are the fragile foundations holding it up ,

    it would be different if China was still booming ( instead of consolidating ) and India was building infrastructure to launch it's growth cycle ,

    Mexico looks to be coming good but is that enough to support global growth

    Australia ? forget it the government is lost in photo-ops trivia and RCs ( all the major parties )
     
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  7. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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  8. Hosko

    Hosko Well-Known Member

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    Victoria
    It's been a little while since it got to anywhere near $16, how likely is this within a 12 month timeframe? I have no idea, and best of luck if you do decide to pull the trigger.
     
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  9. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    unmentioned so far in this thread is the banking RC ( i know several of you just cringed )

    ... but since several banks have restructured/offloaded their insurance arms ( and QBE hasn't decided to buy any up ) who is underwriting which products ( and insurance arms )

    is the current state of QBE murkier than we suspect ... it might explain QBE with-holding so much of the last div.

    ( DYOR )

    take care this share can move unnaturally
     
  10. Sargent

    Sargent Member

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    Thanks Hosko!

    $15-16 is based on my interpretation of the charts. I used to think that
    technical analysis was like 'snake oil' - but more recently I figure if some big investors (or algorithms) use technical analysis then you can't really ignore it anymore.
     
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  11. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    don't get me wrong QBE can seemingly do anything ( at anytime )

    i just see an exploitable range that is regular enough for novice players to study .

    computers have changed much in trading including introducing more risks

    nothing wrong with TA if you can leave emotion at the door , i tend more towards Elliot Wave as emotion drives the herd ( and being a contrarian that moving herd can be useful )