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Trading Question to wdongli

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Tropo, 1st Oct, 2011.

  1. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    What is a Chinese equivalent to hara-kiri ??????? :eek:
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't know really. It seems a traditional matter among Japanese warriors.

    Why do you ask so? Feel painful to see XAO as a whole lost the shirts and the sky falls down so that want to learn this skill? Please don't leave any room for it.

    I believe you are OK. I am OK financially too. So Tropo, please don't learn any skills to commit suicides. GFCI is gone. GFCII could not be worst than GFCI(please refer to the chart between 1932 -1937) in the definition of that

    [​IMG]

    1. GFCI was extension of go-go economies in 1980s and 1990s in advanced economies which extended the financial asset greatly but a lot of debt to leverage.
    2. Deficit crises are the extension of GFCI.
    3. GFCII, if happen, would be the extension of Deficit crises and Stimulus in global wide
    4. GFCI crash has played its parts to clear up the weeds in economies and has scared the crowd enough for them to save more.
    5. The current deficit crises are very fearful too. The crises still could not make GFCII become true so far but have scared the crowd and governments around the world to get balance for better economies.
    6. Most of market players don't know what GFCII really could be: a recession for two or three quarters or another risk to make the global financial system collapsed so that global economies would collapsed?

    The sky is safe. I had rebalanced my portfolio to the prices corresponding to XAO at 3900 based on GFCII's probability. So I ask some big and basic questions:

    1. How could we make ourselves safe when all of the market worry about GFCII?
    2. Could we believe XAO will go back to 5,000 or 6,000 in 1, 2, 3 years or 5 years?
    3. It means 28.2% recovery at 5000 from 3900; it means 53.8% recovery at 6000.
    4. Could we hold for so long without eating out all of our cash reserves or sell the assets on fire?
    5. Could we expect the world would be in stagnation for 1, 2, 3, or 5 years?

    I had miscalculated the maximum time of the existing XAO consolidation due to the limited knowledge and over-optimism personalities. The history after crisis could be different due to the responses of the policy makers and the geopolitical situations. However after the consolidation has last for more than two years.

    1. XAO has dropped down into the GFC crash price range and it is not too far from the lowest price of GFC1.
    2. Its price is much lower its historical trend formed after 1987 crash.
    3. It has pressed all of value accumulated from resource boom out of its price.
    4. It has put GFCII into its price.

    I feel XAO is at a historical lowest range corresponding to its trend line. This trend line of XAO is different from DOW and has its own forces to drive. Could China resource demand would break this line?

    1. Australia joined all of the historical global boom but seemed quite self-refrained to join crazily. It made the bubbles but usually its bubbles much less than people thought about.
    2. Even decoupling in the peak of GFCI was braced by a lot of Aussie warriors but the bubble bursting in XAO was much bigger than any stock markets in advanced economies.
    3. Our main Street seems much more conservative and our policy makers seem worry any bursting than booming always.
    4. Just before the election before GFC, RBA just increased the interest rate independently, which surprised me very much.
    5. Actually RBA seems worry the resource bubble more than the value from the resource booming.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    http://www.australianhistory.org/great-depression

    I am a little market player with premature mind. I have to learn from the prudence of RBA in its money policy and management. Boom and profit are always good but bust and losing unpleasant size of paper profit or capital is always the risks we should not take. Opportunity is great but the cost must be under fully control. We don't want to die in our own hands. We don't want hara-kiri.

    I target at XAO 5000 in 3 years.

    1. I could not afford to hold my portfolio with $50,000 cash reserves only.
    2. The worst case could be worse.
    3. I need the final defending line stronger than the real worst situation allowed.
    4. I should sell all at April which would allow me to pay all of debts and leave some reasonable size capital in hands for chances in the stock market. No debt my rental income could support me as a full time market student.
    5. But I didn't do so. I have to pay the cost and readjust myself for the unpleasant situation I made.
    6. Market doesn't care about your cuts, your tears, and your regret but the solution and determinants for better judgment for no loss!

    We are in a war place. We could not allow our biases, greed, and fear to take the control. When you give out your toes for success, you have to think and take measures to protect your body carefully and you have to do your jobs, hard or easy. Some of my friends just advise me to sell all and spend all to enjoy the life. I do like the fair and credulity of the market. No tricks you could play with Mr. Market.

    So how to hold in all of worst cases before XAO back to 5000? How could I accumulate the cash reserves for it? How could I sell before next great or not great crisis and put all back after next crisis in XAO? It is a war between survival and revival just a matter whether or not I could hold my position when XAO full of bloods.

    What if I still could not win? Do I know the catches? I know I thought! It would be the quality which I still a layman! Why don't you put yourself into the quality? Before I could deal with the life logic and common senses, I would have no ways to be successful in the market. No quality you may survive but no or biased in life logic you will die in any war! You don't need to take hara-kiri if no life logic since death in your financial graves is the destination in the market!

    Do you still think it is good time to think about hara-kiri? If you take the challenge in the market as your own cause, you would dance to work for it and you should not have chances to take hara-kiri since you would be a businesslike people to service the warriors who would take hara-kiri when they fail to use the great systems to dig out their graves in the market.

    I was a warrior in IT new era time. Since then I have given up to be a warrior. I would not be a warrior any more.

    ***
    If both of us didn't lose the shirts in GFC and had got enough profit, we could hold when we work hard to get more cash reserves.

    It is real stupid if we have some assets and cash equivalent for next 30 years(no inflation and extra money printing) expenses after we have worked hard for decades we just think something to commit suicide since the storm was so strong.

    We just need to find a way if GFCII comes in and the whole market just doesn't do what we expect, right or wrong!

    In my understanding har-kiri is the result of completely hopelessness or sacrifice for something. We are in a time when all of Japaneses and us are not warriors in our social life. Market is a war place for money not for some grand causes to sacrifice. All of us could come back to the offices. Actually a lot of us never dare to leave the office behind and jump into the market.

    How could we make life better after something wrong, big or small? Life is a journey and it is our lucky we could do what we want. If we love what we do, we would never hara-kiri. Do you love your systems you are working on? I believe that so I really don't worry about you.

    Inverting from one extreme end to another for possible scenarios is a process to make us intelligent and wise. It is not the same as crying for China Tipping Off, EU default, Gold no Value, and Australia Houses on fire.

    Life is good and never be too clever to learn hara-kiri! LOL!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Oct, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    I am reading an article, "Empirical and theoretical reasons why the GFC is not
    behind us," https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=ACE10&paper_id=166.

    Don't confuse:

    1. Inverting mentally for different extreme scenarios are to get best possible results or consequence.
    2. Trying to find all of sign to confirm the sky would fall down very soon is insane

    We need the lattices of mental network for better or good enough information collection and intelligence, analysis, judgment, and decision.

    If you just look for things to beat others and sky down, you will be down, since you work to drag your personality down! Why do we fight with others in the market? We just need to service others or cooperate with others for our service business.

    Why do you say to pick up spades? It is a tactical mater based on the fact I have made a series of mistakes I have to build the last defending line now not too late to do anything useful and helpful.

    So a man would be equivalent to hara-kiri if he made mistakes but never try to correct them. It is a process to dig out grave for himself.

    ***
    From this article, the scholars thought the causes of the Great Depression were:

    1. The declines in the rate of growth of the money supply initiated by the Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression, which is a mainstream view so far, or
    2. The contracting debt caused the Great Depression, which was hold by some Austrian economists.

    I thought both contributed to the Great Depression based on my experience.

    1. You have little money and identify a chance for a life turning point; if you want to get this chance you have to borrow for it since you have no other ways to go;
    2. your little money is the equilibrium point; if you are right and could be rebalanced after you get the turning point, you would move the equilibrium point to what you have got; if you fail, you have to reduce the debt and try to get more capital from the other sources;
    3. if you could not get more capital or cash to service your debt, you would have to deleverage and quite possible you would have a personal financial crisis.

    So you have to be sure it is a real life turning point. You have to be sure you could service your debt in worst case. You have to be sure you need to lock what you have got for a new equilibrium point after you get the turning points; if you fail to get the new equilibrium point, you will fail once you could not service your debt due to some bad black swan hits on you.

    I failed two time to lock some big profit in last decades due to my greed and don't understand what I know now.

    1. IT booming turned $10,000 borrowed money to $400,000 paper profit
    2. At April the dirty cheap buying on October 2010 turned to be some glossy things with $180,000 paper profit

    In both cases I should lock the profit and change the equilibrium point for my personal financial wallet. Unfortunately I destroyed them ruthlessly. In both cases I became extremely greedy and hope to get what I could not take up. Debt could be used but we have to use it very carefully and once it helps us get what we want strategically, it should be deleted from our table and get new plan to identify the new chances for better turning points with affordable debt!

    Objectively saying, it is not a debt problem but how we manage our portfolio. Logically economy could be develop with the debt but if debt is too much it would drag economies down.

    1. Economy have to avoid crashing and debt should not be deleted in days or months when mistakes have been down but
    2. find the ways to keep economies stable, back to the normal track, reduce the debt and increase the cash input to foster the economy and reduce the unemployment, get rid off the debt in a acceptable long time.

    EU seems need to stabilize itself now rather than reduce he debt. US seems need to increase the employment and get more tax and reduce the debt to zero in long term. China seems need to stabilize its hot economies but should not let it cold to frozen.

    I thought if I could see and right, the experts and policy makers should see more clear than me.

    RBA seems very cool and conscious. It knows our own economies have too many external elements to affect its future. It just tries all to get balance between the boom and bust of the global economies. In this sense XAO may not be a best Casino but a hopeful investment vehicle for a patient, disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant market players.

    Big boys who trade in XAO know RBA very well and unfortunately few retail players know it enough. The retail market players tend to follow all of external matters in US, EU, China, and anywhere of this world to gamble their money until they lose all! All of retail market players now star at the sign shown below and exaggerate risks while push all of news as the triggering points for sky to fall down. Mentally all of them act as the Kangaroo, the special animals, in Australia. They commit suicide but never dare to take hara-kiri since they have been defeated without their own mind and causes.

    [​IMG]
    Retail Players: have not been killed but hurt financially?
    Take hara-kiri!
    No middle way to go!


    Based on my remote memory of the book I read thirty years ago about traditional Japanese warriors, they have faith for their causes and have to be completely loyal to their masters; if they fail a significant task, they have to commit suicide since the causes and masters didn't allow the failure; It is a great way to make the warriors work as a team for a single goal.

    Fortunately or unfortunately we were not born in this old age. It is a market. You should never work for any one and his team. You have to work for you and let your team work for you, and you must be the masters. You don't have the right to ask anyone commit the suicide for their failure on your causes. If you could not be the masters, you could choose to work as employees in your office rather than a warrior in the market for others' team.

    Anyone who doesn't understand the points above would be consumed in the market war! Some may commit suicide but stupid extremely. If you want to die you could have better options! If you want to take hara-kiri, my advice is "forget the market" for a while, get your minds right for the market, and find the middle way or stay in your corner as long as you can by picking up some spades for yourself, believe this sign is the signal that the market has been dropped down enough even not at its lowest points.

    Australia has the resource booming but has not the debt crisis. The consolidation in XAO actually is the result that all of Australia are working hard to deleverage as much as they could. When the private deleverages enough RBA could reduce the interest rate and if economy could back to upward trend with the world, XAO would be up under the rising Sun. It is the time for the rising Sun rather than to prepare for the hara-kiri!

    We could pass the valley of death since the skeletons of the warriors nearly have filled it up and if you are careful, you could be very safe out of this dark tunnel! Sanity, prudence, and thinking mean slowly movement rather than get a quick solution such as hara-kiri.

    No hopes in Australia for bargain hunters and let's buy the houses in US and Ireland! It is a thrilling theme at moment! It is at its very early stage as decoupling before GFC. Andrew in FMG held the decoupling very early and become second rich in Australia. Why don't you go there, wdongli? They are not in my circle plus I was stupid since April! Hope I could be less stupid after XAO comes back to 5000, and come with you next time!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Oct, 2011
  4. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    " I am OK financially too. So Tropo, please don't learn any skills to commit suicides.
    "

    ....reading your posts I am just about to...hahahahahaaaa...
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Now I feel very relaxed since you could...hahahahaaaaa.... Helping you help me a lot. Thank you for your wise questions!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Oct, 2011
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    just in case...if you change your mind, you should know how to do it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th Sep, 2016
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Haha, in case? It is a time when the case can be worse than expectation and the market warriors could be beaten again and again until they are completely hopeless. How many warriors, who are still in this great rollers-coasters, would be rolled out? What would you do after they are rolled out? Take a hara-kiri? Possible if your own palace just collapses onto ground! Fortunately/unfortunately few have the palaces in the market. The cause is too fragile for your sacrifices! I just leave all of my rebalanced chips on the table and do nothing while I wait for that XAO to come back 5000, which I am confident even don't know whether it will take months or years.

    All of the world are expecting GFCII and XAO has put its toes in GFCII. Damages have been done under this crow expectation. XAO has being tried all to put more warriors as possible into the hell or let them take the hara-kiri financially. A lot would lose the courage to wait for its 5000! Shale on fire is the hara-kiri in the market and business. It is most of retail warriors are doing and will do!

    For worst cases, I will work on what spades I should take for survival and revival but refuse to sell on fire, or hara-kiri, during the time when XAO stumbles and rambles, and tries to get his foot on a rock historical bottom. The challenge to me is how to put my working experiences and skills from the market war into my resume and let the market know they are useful to any kind of jobs. LOL! Personally I believe they are very useful for any jobs since the market asks us to be organized, disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant. I would take "looking spades" as my job for a while and focus on it for a clear idea.

    Hope no one could be in the case you worry about! XAO should be there and you could play better after this rollers-coasters swings up again! It will! Of course if these rollers-coasters fall down to hell, all of us would be in the hell. I just work for the case they would not be in the hell!

    It is a most difficult time retail warriors would dare to refuse taking the hara-kiri. They love the party and the music stops what they could do? It is their fate:

    1. Shares lose $25b again as sell-off continues
    2. We’re certainly not out of the woods in terms of European economic stability but it could collapse any time!
    3. Aussie Dollar, the most risky asset in this world, dives to 10-month low
    4. China could tip off realistically
    5. Energy stocks are craps
    6. Resource would be left in the ground for another century.
    7. Greece is hopeless. EU would disintegrate. US could not prince the money and no one want to spend any cents.

    It is the time to take hara-kiri. It is the only glory warriors could get in our generation at least.

    But I do hope the time could tick up a little bit quicker and we could leave the October behind. I am rewriting my resume for the spades. If after October the bargain hunters still want to get out, I would try to get a spade, big or small. Humans are not animals to enjoy the hell. If all who have spade could get their life, the warriors who take the hara-kiri are the leading lemmings to the hell! They would never have chances to get out as those in GFC crash and other crashes in history.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 3rd Oct, 2011
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    A lesson from market and life

    It is impossible to predict what will happen exactly but it is possible to figure out the worst and best scenarios in the market and life.

    At each stage of market and life, we could face very tough environment and we could make human errors and the environment just goes too far from our protection buffer we have got. We could hit our head against the wall of reality but we could just get a broken head or dead minds.

    If the scenarios in the reality is far from what we expect, it means we are wrong somewhere in self-awareness and environment-awareness. We need mentally matured. We should not chock others' throats and protect our failed minds. We should avoid to hit others while we are shedding the bloods away. We need to face ourselves bravely and try to avoid more damage due to our own mistakes and find ways to correct our mistakes.

    If we know market is a war place, we should know in future we could have worse scenarios than the worst cases we expected or assumed. In the war, no matters are about right or wrong but what you have to do and you have to know the probability of the worst consequences for what you choose to do.

    1. XAO has been in consolidation and extended the up/down range bigger and bigger.
    2. DOW and EU have caused the extension for nearly two months.
    3. There are risks to get GFCII or a short-term recession in US and EU and China could tip off. So what if the worst happen externally?
    4. XAO crash further to 3000 or 2000 if we would have GFCII.
    5. What is the probability for GFCII?
    6. LIBOR is still in a normal level which is the risk indicator of the financial system. GFCI was a great financial system crisis which then caused the great economy recession but not depression.
    7. But what if we just get GFCII? We need more buffers than what we saved from the sale on fire. How much have left? How much it could lose?
    8. How long would GFCII stay if it happens?

    To get enough buffer for the possible GFCII or global sale of the bloods and bones, I need to get the spades I put aside for nearly 4 years. There are a lot of engineering work in WA resource sectors but the 4-year gap has to be filled. In this gap I didn't stop to work but work in what I choose. I am more aware in myself, I have used some software packages for property development and portfolio management. I have try to use the risk control for fail-safe in the market. I know how important "no harm" for a mining company and I would be extremely careful to work in the risky environment. I know more about mass psychology and group thinking and how important of the leadership for my team or the team work under a right leadership. I have written a lot of things to update my mind and have got a excellent by-product, a much better English. I could see the words from others much more objectively rather than in biases.

    I could make a good conclusion for what I have done in the management of my funds, portfolio, and property and use this conclusion to fill up the gap. I still need some more time to sort out but the direction seems right. I don't want to sell on fire so that I could do this summery and dance on work for it.

    Life is a process to select the options ahead of you. We don't need to make new one and we could not! But we could pick up the right option with buffer wisely and intelligently. We could work for better result in the limitation of the reality. We don't need to take hara-kiri as Tropo highlighted which have been popular in the market for the warriors for nearly 25 months.

    Hara-kiri or choose the options for better future? It is a acid test for you and your life in the market! Go forward now? No way! Go left? It is very gloomy! Turn right? It is doomed to die! What could you do? Go after the crowd lemmings? Stupid since it is hara-kiri. Jump left and right. You commit suicide! Get a spade to dig out for your cave. Get the book to read and enjoy if you have got a safe cave! No more no less, which is wise and intelligent if we could not see very well through the front screen!

    Could I say I was a manager, designer, team worker, and skill developer of the private fund and property and my job is to know the market change and design the wise and intelligent mental network, which needs the support of clerk, the IT professional, the management of risks and organization, and then it involves the leadership and team work even I have to do all in a management ways?

    I do wonder whether I could find a job to manage more money from clients, which is impossible now but how about if GFCII is delayed and my capital tripled again as it did in V-Shape recovery? Don't know but it is a option even it looks very dim now! If most of crowd choose to take hara-kiri, the chance for you to take hara-kiri would be greatly reduced in chances. You are a speculator? Yes, choosing and selection means that but if we have some foundation for the speculation, we could be fundamental right when we don't realize.

    Who dare to say XAO would never comes back to 5000? Who dare to say XAO would be zero? XAO would be in the middle way between them somehow for somewhile? Who dare to say if the cost is just at the current market price, your chips would go into hell with XAO? No any computer system could synthesize the broad senses into a conscious judgement since it just something if, elseif , elseif, and else to choose in the computer and if there are bugs in the system, it would just destroy the operators with the computers. It is still not powerful enough, Dear Computer!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 3rd Oct, 2011
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Just a little bit more depression: take hara-kiri!

    Big boys slow down its shorting and prepare to cover. Retail bargain hunters speed up to sell and most of them have taken hara-kiri and a little bit worse news from the front lines, would put most of them, who were reluctant to take hara-kiri, take the most painful and fatal decision:

    1. taking the hara-kiri is painful
    2. living in the hopeless more painful
    3. hope to get bargain but lose more they could sustain
    4. history shows after most of warriors took the hara-kiri in Japan, it usually moved into a new era for prosperous
    5. history shows after most of warriors in market sold on fire, market would find its bottom and find way to move up out of the valley of death.
    6. master hands usually didn't follow the following warriors. So Japan lost the war but emperor were still alive and enjoy the life since the bloods and bones are enough to wash away the sins in the war.

    Cheer for the hara-kiri of the cold-head warriors in the ruins. Let the storm beat all of followers down to the hell and wash away the bloods and bones. I still could not get a master minds or hands but I would not follow these pity warriors.

    I could be a civilian with a spade for the rising Sun and I still believe my dirty-cheap fishes are very valuable than the price market put on them.

    Wait to run after all would take hara-kiri, have given their life away! God, please let the dead warriors to the heaven in mercy!
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What if EU collased or not?

    The market is focusing on what if EU collapsed but doesn't think what if EU just doesn't collapse.

    Could EU collapse? What if it collapses? What if it doesn't but find its feet in the market ruins?

    It is possible for EU to collapse but not yet. It is still too early to say so. If it is the case LIBOR should shoot up and the financial system should be in risks.

    What if it collapses? It would risk the global financial system and it would put the modern capitalism in the brink to collapse. All would be the losers in the market for short term.

    What if it doesn't collapse but buy time to save itself for a stronger EU? It would volatilize the global market for some times and then after sometimes the market would try to forget it so that the current market would be a rock bottom for another one or two years.

    What the probability for EU collapse? 75%, 50%, 30% or anything you guess? I guess it is less than 50% chances to disintegrate EU in crash way.

    The global financial system stability is the key where Australia economies go. To build your final defending line, you need to think what if EU collapses but even EU collapses the global financial system could be still there. If you lose your shirts and lock your losses to burn your shirts, you lose any chances.

    It is a time we should buy with 50% cash reserve. It is a time if you could not buy you should hold your position if you could afford the holding. It is a time gut crunching since everyone has to choose what he should react or response.

    I just focus on the answer to the question "how could I afford to hold my position?" What you have done is not important now but how would you do now?
     
  11. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Pressure taking its toll on investors' health

    BEIJING - More than 60 percent of investors in the stock market in China say they regularly experience negative moods, according to a recent health survey.
    On Wednesday, the Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Chinese Hospital Association, the Beijing Health Maintenance Organization and the Ciming Checkup Company jointly released the results of a survey based on the polling of 376,750 stock market investors on the Chinese mainland.

    Some 61.3 percent of respondents said they felt negative moods while 11 percent experienced fatigue, 9.3 percent were irritable and 8.9 percent could not shake a feeling of disinterest in life.
    Among those who had problems for more than 10 days in a month, 12.7 percent said they were suffering from extreme pressure, 8.9 percent said they had cut down their communications with others, 8.1 percent felt mental stress, 5.7 percent sensed isolation and 1.7 percent had contemplated suicide.

    "The stock market is unpredictable, so investors need to find ways to deal with the ups and downs and attach importance to their health," said Han Xiaohong, president of the Ciming Checkup Company, who headed the research team.

    Nearly 30 percent of respondents said they spent between five and eight hours a day in front of computers trying to find ways to win on the markets.
    Some 30.3 percent followed the stock market for three to five hours a day and 17.8 percent spent less than three hours on the task.

    As a result of using computers for long periods, 22.2 percent felt pain in their necks and shoulders and 20.9 percent said the activity harmed their eyes.
    Many of the stock market players had health conditions.
    Some 16.8 percent had cervical disease, 13.8 percent suffered from fatty livers, 10.9 percent were obese and 4.4 percent had mental disorders.

    "The market slumped sharply in recent weeks and, if I had known it, I could have withdrawn my money," said Wei Bo, 56, a citizen in Beijing.
    Wei used to spend hours playing the markets every day until recently, when he came to realize the lifestyle was unhealthy.
    "You can never predict what will happen on the market from one minute to the next, so it is not reasonable to obsess over every decision," he said.
    "Moreover, everyone will be together when there is a dramatic slump, so what the point of panicking?"

    Wang Shaoli, vice-director of the Beijing Huilongguan Hospital, one of the largest psychiatric hospitals in China, said stock investors need to find ways to cope or they will not be playing the markets for long.
    "Instead of blaming the stock market, they should look at their own attitudes," said Wang, who noted that many people start investing because they want to get rich.
    In extreme cases, some throw every cent they have into stocks and even borrow money to speculate.
    "For them, the only thing that matters is success.
    So they are facing excessive pressure every day, which can disturb their sleep, digestive systems and cardiovascular systems," Wang said.
    "So, investors should adjust their attitude if they want to keep playing the market."

    China had 133.67 million active stock market accounts in April, according to the latest statistics released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
     
  12. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it is just like in Casino here and in blood and bone Chinese believe the fortunes is in the risks, which is really true and a life logic I believe too, but few in China and here could get the necessary conditions to get the fortune in the risks.

    When the crowd believes a logic and could not catch the necessary conditions, it could image what they could get, such as me who always wants to buy dirty-cheap fishes since 2004 but don't know he should sell when 60-80% profit to the portfolio were there. You are sick mentally and then market would regularly put you into negative moods.

    Chinese stock market is not real its economy barometer at all so far, which is not just because there are too many gamblers but also the policy makers still have problems to let the stock market be free except the necessary regulation. So if it is up it could shoot up into sky in days and if it is down it could shoot down into ground.

    Based on these internal and external matters, if Chinese market players as a whole have not regularly mental problem, it is ridiculous. Chinese players have long ways to go before they could be mental-sick-free.

    XAO is not a barometer of Australia economy in short term too. The market players here have the mental problems this time for more than 26 months and it is not new. Actually it has had the problems for nearly 100 years, far more longer than Chinese players suffer!

    Naturally if you put your toes on the stock market, you should have very strong gamblers' instinct. We could laugh at others for their gambling if we are lucky this time. But if we are gamblers we would cry without tears time by times. If not this time we would do so next time.

    One sign we are gamblers is we swing our feeling with the market movement. We would be very painful not because we know we have made some silly mistakes and struggle to fix our mistakes in our minds, but because the market drops down much more than we expect.

    Chinese gamblers could not save Aussie gamblers. Both in Australia and China, wise market players would be prudent buying and selling for their living. They do their hard work with the peaceful mind about the basic and necessary conditions.

    Wisdom is always valuable and extremely valuable in the stock market. Any extremely valuable things are few which is true in Australia and in China!
     
  13. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    We should know when we are sick!

    What's the most risky thing in life? You are sick and seriously sick but you don't recognize. Why don't you admit your ill or sick? We tend to show our best to the public if we are high self-esteem and not wise as we thought. In a lot of time we try all to hide the tumors to hold some flowers around them. It is understandable but fatal in the market.

    We want to show we are wise and strong even we are weak enough.

    In IT bust, most of high educated tech lovers refused to admit the fact they were not good if not very bad about life logic and common senses. They tended to show their skills to drive a high tech system in the market rather than to check the basic economics of their high tech systems.

    How many of them are still in the market? In Ozestock, nearly all of them just gone. In the peak of GFC, how many traders and investors with some minds as the gold-bugs were active in the market? How many of them could act as bargain hunters after GFC?

    All of them are gamblers with high IQ. They could be very profit but when the wind against them they just jump into the hell voluntarily this time or next time. Investing and trading themselves are not sufficient conditions to turn professionals to be gamblers, which need the gambling minds to trigger.

    I know naturally I am a gambler. I know if I don't want to be a gamblers I have to let prudence into my bloods and bones. I am sick regularly in the market. It is unacceptable but if we don't have courage to admit our gamblers' nature, we would be forced to be gamblers.

    To be not a gamblers under all of conditions is extremely hard. How could we don't allow us gamble to lose the shirts and let us into the hell?

    I am just right up in the night regularly and wonder what's the best way to be not a gambler in the market.
     
  14. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "The market players here have the mental problems this time for more than 26 months and it is not new."

    Incorrect.
    Market players with knowledge and experience do not have mental problems, unless you are talking about gamblers like yourself.
    It seems to me that you do have a problem. Very serious one.

    Didn't occur to you that not everyone can be a successful trader, like not everyone can be a good painter or tennis player?
    If you made some money occasionally, it does not mean that you have ability to make it consistently in any market conditions.
    Gamblers like you, should forget Stock Market, and play basketball instead.

    "I am just right up in the night regularly and wonder what's the best way to be not a gambler in the market."

    This address Perth Clinic Australia | An Introduction may help you.
     
  15. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Am I a gambler? Are you a coward?

    They are questions only me and you could answer and no one really should care about. Knowledge and experience may cure some mental issues but not all if don't admit you are human and could make human errors.

    I am a gambler and actually I don't think I will stop to gamble when all of the market cry for sky to fall down, such as China tips off, EU is hopeless, and US has not tomorrow.

    If a man never takes any risk, it means coward. Knowledge is not equal wisdom. Experience is never equal to the lesson. It seems wrong to believe some systems, knowledge, and experience. If a man blindly believe knowledge and experience it is not wise even it is far away from gambling blindly.

    Are you mentally healthy? If you just google the popular market themes, it means some problem. Could we say it is wise conclusion from our knowledge and experience in the market? In the darkness it needs least efforts to say this is dark and that is dark.

    I am a gambler, which is a fact. How could you bet on XAO without knowledge it could go down for more than 26 months and could lead the global market down into the brink of GFCII? However history is a mirror and it really tells me XAO would go back to 5000 if not 50000 in decades.

    It is a extreme view to see you could not get sleep well and try to get better result just because tsunami stampede your home land. What's for if you are right up in the night? That is very important. If you don't know that and judge, it is wrong. If you could be wrong so easily, you would be much easier to be wrong in the market unless you just cry for the darkness and never put your toe in this land even in the sunny days. It is coward not wise in my view.

    I would not be a gambler in normal time and good time. I still could not be sure my mind would not be hot again when more and more people cheer for the Sun in the west. So when you are gambler and what you gamble for would decide what you would get.

    It is not very scientific to define who is winners or losers with a simple definition who is gambler or not. Bums in the street may never gamble in the Casino but they just could not accumulate enough asset for their basic responsibility.

    Don't forget you have to gamble on something and you just have to gamble on something never. We all need to know this basic. I like the words such as organized, disciplined, analytic, and self-reliant very much. If you could use these words effectively, you could gamble since you know what you could and what you could not.

    True gamblers never know when to stop. True coward people never know when to start. Do we know when we should stop and when we should start? I still believe most of time I know them! It is my lucks which let me hold the houses for more than 18 years and forced me to seal up my portfolio in this XAO clever time even most of them have lost too much and still tries their best to stampede each other.

    Based on our knowledge and experience, could we expect XAO back to 5000 someday later? Could we wisely buy at the time we should buy and ride on it for its 5000? What's the basic conditions for you to do so? Do you have the gut to gamble for it and leave enough buffer if it takes longer than your expect or jump over the fence with the swings of XAO?

    All of Chinese and Aussies are not wise enough in the market including me! I am ready to pay the cost for my human errors!
     
  16. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What skills do you have?

    Are we knowledgeable or skillful? Would the experiences in the hell would stop us burn the money on the fire? Do they decide we are much wiser or not? Do we believe we could not be aggressive when we are aggressively attacked in the offices and market? Could we cool our head down to response as professionals in the market and office? What are the core in our mind which could help us to make our head is not very hot when everything is hot or not very cold when everything is frozen? Could we say the frozen heads or red hot heads are more wiser?

    All of the questions above are about your personalities which are formed in your past. Could you use what happen in China and Australia to prove you have better personality or not? Could you use any techs and computer systems to make sure you have good enough or bad enough personalities? Is it a common experience that bad personality is hard to change and usually make us more aggressive and provoking for nothing?

    If we could answer the above questions fairly, honestly, and carefully, we should have some basic traits to play in the market since we would notice some sick mental issues or mental disorder, which tend to lead us into extreme. We all in the market and office need the capability to compromise, be initiative, negotiate, get to know all of scenarios, analyze the performance every year but never every day. In our offices the most successful ones are never the people who have the best tech skills and knowledge but don't understand the life basic.

    Since IT bust, every time when I see any words which put the system and skill at first with the absolutely sure tone, I just are scared. Market is not a place to win between or among your mates. Actually it is true in the office no one could win if he always aggressively tries to find how stupid or insane the mates around him. In anytime we should not forget our goals. In the office the people who could combine their efforts with their mates positively for the team objective would win.

    What interrelation skills and personalities do you have? Do you want to update them better? Could you be rational and conscious for your personality and put efforts to change? It is a process to criticize old you and you would stumble time by time since the old you would upset you in this process.
     
  17. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Some would be very successful to be traders even they don't have the right personalities or skills. Some would lose the shirts even they have the right personalities or skills but just forget to leave the buffer more than for the human errors and market conditions.

    There are lucks to play the parts. We love our cars and they should break down at extreme times and conditions. We could avoid breaking down a>. never driving in the conditions they could break down; b>. we are lucky to drive the car in the conditions they should break down but not!

    "Gamblers like you!" seems tell something about the capability to smell or sense things absolute right remotely. Saying others "should forget Stock Market" and don't leave any room for anyone seems like a agent for God. Could we say in the market the absolutely right would get absolutely wrong result unless the absolutely right hands are absolutely lucky or never dare to play in the market.

    Do you make human errors? Have you fallen down when you run away for some urgent matters? If not I have to say congratulation. Everyone could lose shirts but you would not! LOL!

    Thank you for your words and I would work hard to change my minds until I could run together with you in the market for a flawless market play!
     
  18. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Do you understand what you are trying to say, because I do have a problem to fully understand your Chinese.
    Anyway... as I see you are still confused.
    At least professional gamblers do have rules and system in place.
    You have none.
    Taking a calculated risk is a key in trading. Because you don't know how to calculate risk, you have a problem.
    Maybe coward people never know when to start (as you said), but mental people never know when to stop. What is worse?
    More lessons (good or bad) you get, more experienced you will be, which does not apply to you, as you learned nothing from your previous mistakes.
    Talking about falling sky, flying market demons and the like, is good as a bed time stories.

    As I said before, system must give a signal when to enter and when to exit the market.
    If you were unable 2 years ago to recognise that market changed direction, so in your case it does not matter how long market may go down, or when it goes up.
    There is a time to be in the market and time to stand aside (if you do not know how to short indices).
    And yes...I am afraid that you may pay the cost, but not for your human errors, but for you ignorance and luck of knowledge.
    Also, I do not gamble and I do not use gut feelings. It's a loser's strategy.
    Because you are a gambler (as you said), I wonder if you are on the right forum ?????
     
  19. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Job interview and market play

    I am preparing to pick up a spade in case my gambling nature and the market just test my integrated capability to deal with the risks. I don't worry about my experiences and skills to work but I do know I have to prepare and refresh something first for the interview. Some advices for interview is very good for the market playing too:

    "use the 20% of time you spend speaking, to addressing the important issues the employer has uncovered, and to ask your own questions."


    Do you listen and ponder in the market? Sometimes we do but sometimes we don't. When do you listen and when don't you listen to the market? What's for if you listen? Could you address the important issues Mr Market has uncovered or just believe your absolutely right hands? Do you ask your own questions when you listen the market?

    "Don’t boast, and certainly don’t be a know-all and do not indicate that you know more than the interviewer."

    We tend to believe we know all or nothing. Some believe they know more than Mr. Market what would happen in days. We could know some which would happen tomorrow but we definitely don't know what black swans are there.

    "Don’t say you can do it better!"

    We like to be teachers even we make mistakes as often as anyone else. It is not easy to do anything better than the market crowd in days even you could do much better with proper behavior in long term.

    We need to be cruel to our enemies, ourselves. We need to share ideas for better consequences and if we are not the bosses we should cooperate with others rather than to show we are better than our mates. In the market, the boss is Mr. Market and your enemy is yourselves.

    Mr. Market doesn't give command to fire you but just give your more chips of get your chips away. Even we can get more chips on our own table, we don't need to judge mates seriously. We could have different views but we don't need to beat each other specifically.

    Don't say we can do better even we never stop to do better in the market. It is silly comparing yourselves with any market players who you assume worse than you. We need examples to play in the market for better results that what we could get before.

    "Ask right questions to clarify the issue."
    It is always extremely important everywhere for everything. In most of time we lose the shirts just because we could not find the right questions in the market.

    "Give them solutions!"
    Mr Market as a boss doesn't care about your feeling and how great you could let your mates down onto the ground, which are the individual human's problem. You have to accept the right price or solution from Mr Market for your money problems. You are really glossy, wise, intelligent, and absolutely right to your mates, but if you lose the money in long term, you fail.

    "Be succinct and keep to the point."

    We have limited brain power. Could we hold the basic and simple rules always and ask the questions in points. Are you a gambler? A simple question but it could not solve the problem when to buy, run away, hold, unfold, and forget so that you could get the profit or the job you love.

    Know “what is in it for me” for your boss.
    What do you want not what Mr Market wants to give is very important. You could not force your bosses to do what you want but you could make what they wants and then you get what you want. What do I want in the market? I want the price much lower than the value or the means in normal time without the risks I could not afford.

    Could traders just get what they want? They could but need more than the tech and system they love.
     
  20. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Charley Monger said "inverting, inverting, and always inverting" between the extreme. Why? Get the compromises and balances between good and bad, risk and profit, or craziness and rationality. Absolute right is not a problem but absolutely wrong kills the money in the market.

    In the war, your life is in risk always. It is not bad to feel confused and fearful. You are absolutely right I am not fearful when the market is cheerful. You are absolutely wrong if you are fearful or more fearful than the crowd when the people run in stampede. We should be conscious to monitor the market for the turning points of the huge pendulum and have the buffer if we jump in too early.