Discussion in 'Shares' started by Tropo, 27th Mar, 2012.
Assies lost too much!
If XAO could tell anything, it said Aussie traders and investors had lost too much, too much for their sustainability based on the belief of decoupling theory economically:
1. Before GFC Aussie traders and invetors believed that the devastation of the Western Economies could have not the chances to pull the whole world into the ground.
They were wrong and terribly wrong. The crash was so phenomenal and the losers were not just the active traders and investors but all who had the money in their super funds. The repercussions of GFC didn't just affect US and EU but all had to taste the bitters.
2. After April 2011, all of hopes to Aussie traders and investors seemed gone. Locally no one could cheer for anything politically, economically, and naturally.
Market needs the cakes in the sky to boom. Australia have two-speed economies. The economies out of the resources have huge pressures from the pared Australia dollar to US dollar.
The resources are targeted to support the whole nation. The nature challenged Aussies in the scale of one in 100 years. The only hope to Labor, the traders, and investors are the demand of resource from China.
Now no ones worry about the huge holes after resource booms is gone. People have cried for China tipping off for quite long time. XAO lost all of its gut in August-October 2011 and rushed to lead the world into GFCII.
3. XAO dropped so much and then a lot of veteran traders and investors burnt down too much and they had to leave from the market forever.
It was gut crunching duration. All of clever traders sit over the fences and don't know which side they should jump into.
It is very interesting to compare what have being happened and what XAO has being expected. It was a fact that Australian economies luckily have performed very well and XAO have paid back all of profit or value from the resource booming.
The resource booming has been managed or intentionally push down within limitation by RBA and the floating Australia dollars even before GFC. IT busts have pour a lot of cold water into the minds of the traders and investors.
So it is a logic consequences after your head is too hot, it needs the ice to cool down a lot of much more than the normal temperature.
4. However hopes started to appear. XAO hopelessly(viewed by a lot of traders even investors) have got it out from the desperation running for the imaginary GFCII.
The rally in XAO is extremely nothing at moment. However EU has become stabilized, US seems moving forward and has to decide where DOW would go, China tries all to harness the economies in limitation, and then Australia economies have to adjust for future.
XAO seems know it was wrong after chasing a false meat down into the hell, GFCII. It seems get some hopes but it wants to see DOW sets the feet on 13000 and China stops its sliding into lower GDP target.
XAO could not do anything but guesses and predicts in veil since it doesn't hold the stake for the future. Australia economies are still OK and Australia dollar intentionally is floating by its trustful financial system. Fortunately it is still in a benign global environment and then it is the reason its currency could be favored internationally.
After 1929, Europe had more trouble than now. It was not debt crisis but the most devastated war in human history. I don't see the fact that US crashed onto depression, EU hit by the bombs, Japan cried for Atomic bomb, and China used the primitive weapons for its last line.
However I still seen the global economic structure shifting and we have still a few billions of people need the resource desperately. China has limited natural resources corresponding to its population and size.
World War II has told people you could not get the resources by wars only. Japan could not. Germany could not, China could not, and compromising is the only way to get all move forward in this small global village.
It is hard to make a society prosperous by forces but it could be much easier to keep things stabilized. Any assumption about China tipping off is childish. Any prediction XAO could shoot up very quickly without sure matters about China economies and US!
So it could last longer for XAO to be gutless than anyone's expectation. Boom never kills the trend followers but Crash does! As I said before it is war of contrition. You need to protect you but never give up some position. It is not a trading time if you want to get big enough profit. If you trade you have to buy with enough protection!
Don't mistake me I am predicting the future. I could not but I just want to open my mind to see the risks and chances and would like to take the chances with full protection.
Fail-safe and no harm!
God blesses XAO? Could you a winner without matter XAO losses or wins? It is a challenge and most of traders and investors forget!
Have to say the Author have a very sharp observation but he seems have not an integral mental infrastructure to get a winning strategy let alone a plan and procedure.
Being watching "Secrets of the World War II" for my listening capability in English(more than 14 hours per day) do feel the traders and investors are extremely inferior in strategy, plan, procedure, and resolution for what they want!
Do feel a little bit sorry for myself that I should have fixed the spoken and listening English 20 years even I know I didn't have this luxury. It is a tool to fill out the gap between my imaginary world and real one.
Unfortunately I knew the international language, Engineering, which didn't let me feel the urgency. However it was a strategic mistake, limited my mind, and stopped me to be a integral man for the market, a war place.
By the way, today I decided not join AKK's SPP after inverting my mind again and again, which was not because it was not promising but based on what I have and what the ratio of risk/profit in future.
I still need a much stronger defensive line. I have exposed myself to the market enough. I don't expect market could harm my portfolio any more. I try all to balance my mind and portfolio!
I wonder what would be in insight in 6 months, 1 or 2 years, or longer. Could I buy tough and sell reasonably? Damages have been done and future is more important than what you have lost!
All of us have to take others' views but they must be digested thoroughly.
It is terribly difficult to win individually even XAO at last would win out! We have to learn to be responsible for our own casualties. Don't waste the time and brain for feeling and assumption when the human kind makes its way for future! Market does need self-reliance. You could harvest the defeating rather than the reward. Ignorance and arrogance are two necessary weapons to shoot you own down!
We need a integral mental framework if we really want to be in the market for living.
IT bust and GFC have taught us too much to learn.
Could learn from the failure and money burning game? Do you know your direct goal? Do you have your plan to get your direct goal without the painful usage of "stopping losses?" Could you overwhelm your fear and greed? Do you know both of bust and rally kill the insane people?
Are you insane not anyone else? There are always the gaps between what you expect and what the market really want to give to you. Are you ready to be hit and laugh loudly back to your home since you have successfully found a weak point in your mind and you have solution to fix it.
What's my direct goal? Hold my position and setup my last defensive line which would never fail if market could not be in the hell completely.
What's my indirect goal or my destination in the market: big enough bond-type investment for cash income and self-protected and reviving stock-type investment; a scholar who could talk, think, and write English about stock market for profit rather than one who sit on the ivory tower to dream; a donator for children education.
Could you get your indirect goal? I don't mind if I could get it but I would dance to work for it!
Do you believe you are a genius? 20 or 30 years ago I did feel so even I never said so. Actually before the April 2011, I did feel a little bit so with 180,000 paper profit. I want this feeling really. It is very good but I would not dare to feel so anymore. Life is not a game for genius only and if you want you could make your life.
Actually genius should be rewarded in their 20-30s if they are lucky. If they at their early ages are lucky and know how to protect their reward without destroying what they have got in their future life, they could be very successful.
Not all of genius are lucky and most of them are losers in life and market since they could just take their position at the wrong time and wrong place for wrong causes. It is very dangerous genius don't know they are limited by the time and place!
Livermore was a genius without questions. He plunged out at a lot of good time, good place, and great chances and he turned to be very successful. You could not say he was not a genius.
But he was a genius with some special gifts needed the time and space to play the parts. Unfortunately when the wrong time came in, he had to put the gun at his own head! It was a tragedy!
Tragedies have their causes even in most of time we tell the stories which are not true. Unfortunately human becomes wise about himself usually after he could not do too much or has lost all of stakes.
Lessons have the costs! Lessons could be soft or hard ones. Most of traders and investors pay for the hard lessons.
Few paid for the soft lessons which are accumulated in the life logic and common senses and the knowledge about market, business, and economies, and have got extremely successes. These soft lessons usually are taken as cliches by the traders and investors.
Some would get the hard lessons when they try to get the soft lessons.
Most of traders and investors would have one way to run: jump in for quick money, burnt terribly, then rush back to home or sit in the sideline painfully with the wonders why they could not win!
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