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Research Subscriptions

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Maverick, 24th Nov, 2005.

  1. Maverick

    Maverick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Sep, 2005
    Posts:
    51
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I have recently looked at a few Research Subscriptions for investing into shares and was wondering if anyone tried them (or any others) before and could share the experience.

    Source www.intelligentinvestor.com.au
    Frequency fortnightly
    Performance (p/a) 21.70%
    6 Months price $295.00
    12 Months price $495.00
    12 Months price discount 16.10%

    Source www.fatprophets.com.au
    Frequency weekly
    Performance (p/a) 31.50%
    6 Months price
    12 Months price $695.00
    12 Months price discount

    Source www.aspecthuntley.com.au/licensee/newsletters
    Frequency weekly
    Performance (p/a) 24.00%
    6 Months price $266.00
    12 Months price $468.00
    12 Months price discount 12.03%


    What is your opinion about the value of those subscriptions? Any recommendations?

    Regards.
     
  2. eddievanhalen

    eddievanhalen Active Member

    Joined:
    31st Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    37
    My brief thoughts are that you'd be better off doing the hard yards and learning to manage your own money. For the cost of one year of either of those subs you could buy every book you need and start working/testing your own systems. The main beef I have with these newsletters (I read the ones my father gets if I'm down there) is that they have no real concept of risk management.

    If you are to get their stated returns you need to be buying every single one of their hundreds of recos for the year in equal quantites. If you can't afford to do this (as most can't) then you have to hope that amongst your few there isn't a disaster , and I can assure you they have plenty.

    If you are happy to have a wildly swinging equity curve then fine , but if you want steady growth then I have my doubts as to your chances of getting what you think you're paying for. Ten years ago I was a staunch fundamental analyst and Buffetologist , but now I'd say 70-80% of my profits come from being a good judge of sentiment and price action.

    2 recent examples from Intelligent Investor for you to ponder :


    a) recently recommended FLT as a strong buy @ 13.50 and reiterated at 11.00 or so I think. Currently 9.83 within a couple of weeks

    b) they recently reiterated their strong sell on RIN. They happened to mention in their reco that since their last SELL on RIN it was up 65% and it's an even stronger sell now :D

    An example that springs to mind from Fat Prophets is their trade on MSC (which I've been kept abreast of by a fellow trader). Initially recommended in the mid to high 20c and , after consistently reiterating their BUY on it all the way down they finally told their subscribers to lighten on it and HOLD around 2c. Aegis did a similar thing on PWR a few years back.

    I trade/invest for a living and expect a lot , so perhaps I'm being a bit harsh. But losing 90% of your capital on any one trade like these guys sometimes do is unforgivable for mine. One of the keys to being a successful trader/investor is being able to know when you're wrong.


    Anyway - I think you get my drift. If you can stand some wild swings and have enough money to buy a good spread of their recos then MAYBE you'll get some results.

    Ed
     
  3. Maverick

    Maverick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Sep, 2005
    Posts:
    51
    Location:
    Melbourne
    DIY option - tools for beginners

    Ed,

    Thanks very much for your post. I tend to agree with what you are saying. I was really only considering subscription option due to lack of knowledge about investment in shares market.

    Ed, what books would you recommend to a beginner?

    Also, I do not have any system to "start working/testing". Can you recommend anything specific - book or other information source - to help to build such a system, especially with the "real concept of risk management"?

    Appreciate your help.