Sharemarket outlook - back from the brink!

thanks Sim,

Great presenter.

Cheers - Gordon

 

Sim

Very interesting speech and
I also liked her shortlist of stocks.

Cheers

 

That was cool! Who is going to follow her stock picks for 2009?

 

I am going to buy them in 2009

 

Thanks for providing that Sim!

It's very interesting to hear someones perspective on things at that level in the stockbroking industry. Especially for DIY investors. It's fairly hard to cut through the noise in the market in the current environment.

I feel a bit re-assured knowing that I have been investing in a few of the companies that they like at the moment.

Now, if I just would have stayed away from the more speculative companies that I find myself lumbered with at the moment.....

 

Thanks for the link SIM.
I enjoyed the presentation.

Now US Fed is giving loan injection on Fred And Fannie, is it the turn around she was talking about.

 

Nope...

Why do people think there's a turnaround just around the corner? Wishful thinking or what?

Mark

 

We are talking about the turnaround of share price here not the economy. Like what the presentation mentioned the share price recovery could be in the middle of recession. Share price usually factor in what is going to happen.
Like what we have now probably already factor in recession.
What the US Fed doing to Fred and Fannie I think it's too small to amount to anything. But if they stay bailing out others will that enough to boost the economy? Too soon maybe.

 

tropic,

Here's a great column that was just put up on a blog I read. It's a great column and I thought it quite pertinent to this particular subject. When it comes down to brass tacks, no one knows when the turnaround is going to happen. We'll know when it happens only after it's happened.

THE FINANCIAL PHILOSOPHER: Delusion, 'Non-Bottom Callers' & The Afflictions of the Investor's Mind

Mark

 

Mark,

Thanks for the link.

I liked this quote
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." ~ Lau tzu

Although this could be true in this particular instance even blind Freddy
can see that something is terribly wrong and that world and US stock markets
will take sometime to recover from this mess.

IMHO

 

Hi Bill,

Yeah I like that quote too. I don't predict, so I don't know where the bottom is or even pretend to know where the bottom is. It's also a large part of why guys like Steve Navra, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett views resonate with me, because they see the folly in prediction as well. To me, prediction is just a fancy way of saying 'gambling'.

My personal view is that the credit and sub prime mess is far too complicated to be a quick 'hit and run' and that the whole issue is going to take a while to get sorted out. Who knows how many other institutions are going to come to the brink of failure in the next few months or even years? How many are teetering on the edge that we don't know about at this point in time? Having said that, it could all start going up tomorrow, who knows? Answer: nobody.

There are far too many variables and questions marks for anyone to claim they know or have even the remotest idea of when a turnaround is going to happen. I was reading a post on another forum recently where people were discussing gold as an investment and one guy said (in relation to the crash and the rise of gold) that he'd been predicting it for the last few years. At that moment I thought to myself "So what? I could sit here 'predicting' the rise in the market for the next couple of years and when it finally happens I could post up a 'See I told you so' post as well."

Mark

 

As an addition to Mark’s link, there is an excellent book written by Charles Mackay - ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’.

 

I remembered the presenter Julie Davison said that recovery and stability will return to the market after government intervention, or something like that. It was many weeks ago when I saw the presentation.
Now the US government has made an annoucement about bailing out Fannie & Freddie will the market stabilize you think?

 

"Now the US government has made an annoucement about bailing out Fannie & Freddie will the market stabilize you think?"


``This is not a permanent solution -- they've not saved Fannie and Freddie, what they've done is they've bought 15 months,'' said Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management in New York, which has sold short the two companies, or bet on declines in their securities. ``
It's a band aid. They haven't permanently recapitalized the companies.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arc1_32y8rcg&refer=home

 

Mark, interesting to read your comments. Surely one must be certain of certain variables in order to get ahead financially ? Could be long or short term ... you must surely be hoping to see change in the economy, stock market, property market ?

 

Active Trade,

Yeah of course! I know it's going to happen, I just don't know when and I don't try to guess. My preference is to buy when my research tells me an asset is good value based on my own personal criteria. I don't think to myself 'Ah yeah, the market will probably start turning in two months, probably a good time to buy now I reckon'.

Mark

 

They say that time is a great healer and I think that is going to be the case with the credit crisis.
It's already been going on for a year and the longer it continues the more immune people are going to become to all the bad news and the more all the bad news is going to be factored into equity prices.
In the meantime I think it's going to take a succession of moves such as the Fannie/Freddie bailout to very slowly heal the wounds and restore confidence in the markets,
I think it's a case of riding out the volatility until such time as the level of good news exceeds the level of bad news.