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Shares or NSW Property

Discussion in 'General Investing Discussion' started by Chomp, 23rd Jan, 2009.

  1. Chomp

    Chomp Well-Known Member

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    What do you think will double in value first the ASX 200 index or the median Sydney property value?


    And anyone up for guessing when!
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    I'll go for the ASX200 index within 10 years - but only because the market is down 50% from its highs right now ... and I don't think the Sydney property market will have enough legs to double within that period - not unless we come out of a recession running hard into another boom. Will be interesting to see what affect ultra-low interest rates will have on the property market.
     
  3. sphinx

    sphinx Member

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    if you are talking about the current level
    15 years for share
    30 years for property

    calculated through regression back to the mean (long term trend).

    Of course, both will get worse from now before getting better.
     
  4. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    I'm backing the ASX will outperform property and have doubled from todays levels within 6 - 8 years.

    This projection is factoring that there will also be a further 10% - 25% drop for the ASX. So I'm expecting around a 130% - 140% gain over 6 - 8 years from the bottom.
     
  5. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    chomp

    I am thinking that both will double in the next 5 years or so.

    I believe interest rates will be the key to property prices.
    As interest rates fall further, loan repayments will be lower than paying rent and properties will become popular again.

    The same will happen with shares.
    People will soon be out looking for new investments because with interest rates falling, putting our money in the bank is no longer rewarding.

    To make sure I catch both upswings I'd put money in both property and shares

    cheers
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    Unfortunately, unless the banks lending criteria also loosens up, there will be a lot of people who simply cannot get the loans to support increasing prices. I think it will be lack of finance more than interest rates which drive the next few years of property prices, leading to a largely stagnant market.

    Still, it will be interesting to see what happens.
     
  7. AsxBroker

    AsxBroker Well-Known Member

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    With interest rates dropping further soon it will simulate home owners further.
    I think for investment properties people have to be more confident about their jobs which thanks to Rudd and the media have made it sound like the end of the world...so people aren't running towards borrowing to invest at the moment.

    Cheers,

    Dan
     
  8. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    Isn't it strange how the government is talking down the economy instead of being optimistic about things?

    Their actions so far don't give a lot of confidence....:eek:
     
  9. AsxBroker

    AsxBroker Well-Known Member

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    Hi BV,

    I think it is very cunning. It's always better playing up how bad things are and then if they are good you can say we were expecting the worse and people won't be too upset. If you say things are ok and they turn bad, people won't be very happy with you.

    Cheers,

    Dan
     
  10. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    For the most part I think what a government says is largely irrelevant, the facts and figures are what really matter. Ie, where are interest rates at, do you have a job, how much money do you have in savings, how much debt do you have, what is the share market doing - all these things are a lot more relevant to the depth of a recession than the opinion of figure heads.

    I personally think the sooner people wise up to the brutal facts, the sooner everyone gets to dealing with them. To steal a quote from Tony Robbins, "there is no point looking into you backyard and telling yourself over and over, there are no weeds, there are no weeds, there are no weeds, in the hope that they might disappear" you are far better off just accepting the brutally honest facts and just dealing with them. Denial is not going to keep the unemployment rate low.
     
  11. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "I personally think the sooner people wise up to the brutal facts, the sooner everyone gets to dealing with them.
    To steal a quote from Tony Robbins, "there is no point looking into you backyard and telling yourself over and over, there are no weeds, there are no weeds, there are no weeds, in the hope that they might disappear" you are far better off just accepting the brutally honest facts and just dealing with them.
    Denial is not going to keep the unemployment rate low".


    Aaaaaaaaa......right !!
    Now tell us...how much cost to become a church leader ??? :eek::confused:
     
  12. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    What brutal facts?

    There is only 1 fact and here it is.
    People who read a lot of irresponsible and often innacurate reporting if they don't know how to filter it they'll end up believing it.

    So be carefull what you read and be even more carefull with what you write
    because what we are told by the media and even by politicians are often not true.

    Before I believe any reporting I'd like to see it supported by numbers
    and by actual numbers, not those of the imaginary type.

    We have yet to see any large scale unemployment figures released.
    I am certain that in Australia unemployment won't increase by much.
    Do you know why?
    Because our businesses are already running very efficiently with very little (if any) fat left and any reduction in employee numbers has to be small or a business will not be able to function.
     
  13. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    I don't know what you are getting at with this question, but just so you know I hate religion with a passion. I'm not discriminatory in my hatred of each religion either. Though my religious beliefs aren't really relevant to these investing forums.

    Right so all the "optimistic" run of the mill, hyped up BS that real estate agent, brokers and government have been pushing for the last decade is all well and good, because it has a positive spin, but letting the general population know that things aren't what they once were is scare mongering.

    :mad:

    Dude, facts are facts - the world has opened its eyes. Australia needs to wake up too. I'd rather K Rudd tell Australians to buckle up it's going to bumpy, then they hold onto delusional rubbish that people have been saying for the last year, like "Australia won't be affected that bad because of X" - it's all crap. Sure, Australia has some slight advantages but this IS going to be the worst Australian recession for the last two generations of Australians. My generation hasn't even seen a recession!

    I'm not saying the world will end, but "joe six pack" deserves to know that the mining job that pays him $100,000 isn't as secure as it used to be, the shares he bought on the advice of someone who claimed to be smart are going down in value, unemployment is going to rise dramatically, and that things are likely to get a lot worse before they get better.

    You're right they are not accurate, but you can bet that government is biasing things to the upside, because last time I checked governments don't get re-elected when they run their countries into the ground.

    What are you talking about... Australia lost 44,000 full time jobs in December! You can sit there and say, but 43,000 part time jobs were created, but where I come from that's a big loss of employment. Also the beautiful thing about those figures are they don't include contractors and casual workers - the majority whom of which, it is safe to say, have already been fired.

    Right... because you are going around checking business efficiency rates are you?

    Wait until the figures for Jan, Feb & Mar come out before claiming unemployment will stay low... seriously, Australia didn't really start seeing the slowdown until Nov/Dec. A large portion of layoffs would have been left until Jan, so should make for some ugly numbers.
     
  14. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    I am waiting.
    In the meatime you have to admit that you are guessing like every1 else and really you have no idea, what is going to happen because none knows good or bad....
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th Jan, 2009
  15. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    No idea??? Hmmm I have seen army of contractors ordered to go home just before xmas. I don't need to guess I know 17 people were asked not to come back to work from my departament only. You don’t feel it yet as holidays are still rolling and everyone aspects less people around.
     
  16. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    dudek

    What industry are you in?
     
  17. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    I am in IT and I already learnt how it is to loose a job after .com bust. I have seen it all too many times since.
     
  18. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    Dudek

    I am surprised to hear this.
    Perhaps your company lost a contract?

    Anyway, if anyone you know is a senior SW engineer with experience on hardware as well tel him to contact me.

    We have an opening at North Sydney
    It's a full time position.
    I think we could also be looking for SAP support staff.

    cheers
     
  19. dudek

    dudek Well-Known Member

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    BV,

    We didn’t loose any of the contracts. It is more of the timing as our company is reviewing strategies to adjust to new economic conditions. I believe many of them will come back but what happened last year will hit the news as a bad data for last Q08. Unfortunately I can’t help you if it comes to skills you are looking for. As many big corporate in Australia we are relaying on software specialist from overseas.
    Fortunately for my colleagues many of them are savourers. As a contractor you never know if you going to get you contract renewed so when you loose job you have to take it on the chin and move on.
    Tough cookies we are… :D
     
  20. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    I'm not going to sit here and claim that unemployment is going to go up X.XX% in February or anything, but I'm not "guessing" I'm making "informed" judgements on the general direction and degree to which unemployment is moving in.

    I don't just make my opinions up as I go, I read about all the issues I discuss at great length to form my opinions and conclusions. So I wouldn't say there is a lot of "guesswork" in my statements.