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Speculation on "When" The Market Will Bottom

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Chris C, 18th Nov, 2008.

  1. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    There has been a lot of speculation on these forums as to what level the market will fall to, but there hasn't been as much speculation about "when" everyone thinks it will bottom. So I just thought I'd start a thread to see what month people think the market it will find the bottom and why. Here are my guesstimates:

    When: January 2009
    Why: I think the worst quarter of this global recession will be the forth quarter, and I think that in the early part of next year the market will sniff an upswing in economic indicators and start a slowish climb back up.
     
  2. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    Chris

    The when is directly related to what happens in the US.

    So far, it seems like they are unable or unwilling to fix the problems.
    I believe that when the new president takes control things should start to improve.

    December/January is holiday season so my guess will be for the recovery starting sometime after that, perhaps in February.

    cheers
     
  3. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    I don't think there will be a recovery for a long time.. if you look at the 87 crash, sure we did have a recovery in the couple years following, but then for many years later the market remained flat or downtrending..

    So even if there is a recovery, it will be short lived till more rot comes out.

    Thats why I suggest sticking to high yielding stocks rather than expecting capital growth.
     
  4. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    :confused:

    I don't understand why the world is waiting for America to fix their problems. As big an influence as the US has on the world economy (20 - 25% of world gdp) they are not the be all end all, nor do I think we can rely on them to grow their way out of this one. They are in neck deep in debt and as much as I hope Obama can stop the titanic from sinking, I can't help but feel that the last life raft for the American economy has well and truly set sail, leaving old mate Obama to captain the sinking the ship just as a hell of a lot of baby boomers jump on board to weigh it down with their pension plan requirments and medical expenses.

    What does "long" mean, does it mean quite a few weeks, quite a few months, quite a few years?

    Also I'm asking people to pick when the "bottom" will occur not the style of recovery.

    That said, I tend to agree with you on a general movement to high yield stocks, though I also tend to believe that long standing, and resilient companies that are trading at PE's under 10 are very undervalued any way you look at, and the ASX 200 is trading at PE's levels well below historical averages, so short of big declines in company earnings (which old mate K Rudd is suggesting we won't see) you'd think that there will be a some degree of a recovery in the shorter term.
     
  5. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    I know what you mean and I can't wait for the day when the ASX will move independently of the DOW but will it ever happen?
     
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "When: January 2009
    Why: I think the worst quarter of this global recession will be the forth quarter, and I think that in the early part of next year the market will sniff an upswing in economic indicators and start a slowish climb back up."


    In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behaviour, nobody has the “ ****** “ notion of what&when will happen in the future.
    Mark that word = NOBODY!!!!

    Thus the successful trader/investor does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but react instead to what does happen.
    :cool:
     
  7. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

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    Good point.

    A newletter a friend sent me (who frequents this forum) shows that when dow hits between 7200 and 7400 ish , a bounce will occur. That makes us around the low 3000's you would think.

    An interesting side note, the difference between ASX200 and the FTSE
    was virtually nil (both around 4000 or so) 2 weeks ago , now we are some 500
    points below them when they were the ones who just said they are in recession.
    So nothing can be predicted in this market - either they are set for a big fall or we will soon have a big rise you would think :confused:
     
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Perky,

    Some of my levels on DOW : 8050, 7919/14, 7485/79, 7260/56...6855 (mid point) :eek:
    XJO may hit ... 2926/21 :eek:
    As you know ... Nothing is impossible in the market. :cool:
     
  9. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    its funny how short sellers are allowed back in the market today, and we are down! even though the US was up overnight!
     
  10. Young Gun

    Young Gun Guest

    The other day someone asked a similar question and I said that I felt that the market had already bottomed and there was support at about 3,800....

    Well I was proved wrong within a day!!:p

    so I think I'll keep my opinions to myself lol!
     
  11. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    3800 the other day? that seems to long ago!
     
  12. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Most of us have done that, but the beautiful thing about being wrong is that no likes being wrong so most of us take steps to work out where we went wrong so you get to learn from your mistakes and it becomes a learning experience. Plus speculation on these forums is free!

    :)

    If you were to decide to walk away from the stock marekt for 6 months to come back to better times you may have missed, what I think is, the best time in history to get a better understanding on how this big crazy global economy works.


    It may just be the case the UK and US market priced in the fact they were going into recession a couple of months ago, whereas we in Australia and only now starting to realise that we too may be headed for recession and as such our market may only just be factoring this in.

    Though I think a lot of it will have to do with the withdrawl of a lot of Japanese investment whether it be through the unwinding of carry trades on the Yen to $A or removal of general investment in the "flight to quality" trading down riskier investments in countires like Australia and other BRIC economies for investments in reserve currencies like US$, Yen & Euros.

    At the end of the day you can say Australia might have fallen further than other indicies but if you look at many of the BRIC economies their indicies have fallen a hell of lot further than ours over the course of 2008, we have fallen about 40 - 45% over the course of 2008, most BRIC economy stock markets have fallen 55 - 65%.

    Though as I posed in another thread, this may be the very reason why our stock market will rebound faster than other economes, as foreign investors in countries like Japan look for better yeilding investments abroad.


    The really smart investors don't just react though, they'd anticipate and react on the first signs of a directional change. There is always going to be some guesstimation when it comes to anticipation.

    I'm not expecting anyone to be right when it comes to calling the bottom of the market, I'm really just interested in what people on these forums are expecting in the short and medium term, and why they are expecting what they are expecting. I just like reading the different perspectives other people are looking at the situation from.
     
  13. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "The really smart investors don't just react though, they'd anticipate and react on the first signs of a directional change. There is always going to be some guesstimation when it comes to anticipation.

    I'm not expecting anyone to be right when it comes to calling the bottom of the market, I'm really just interested in what people on these forums are expecting in the short and medium term, and why they are expecting what they are expecting. I just like reading the different perspectives other people are looking at the situation from."


    There is no room for guessing.
    If you get a signal from your system (buy or sell) you simply react! End of story.
    I wonder how different people’s opinions can help you? Reading too many different opinions/predictions is no good for you.
    If you have got nothing else to do, listen to mass media 26h/day &11 days per week.
    I got an impression that calling the bottom of the market becomes some kind of competition.:eek:
     
  14. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    I'm thinking now there is no bottom. Why? Because the market ANTICIPATES a recession, hence it falls, then the market GOES INTO recession, and it falls, then the market will STAY in recession, and fall further.. the market keeps on reacting to what it already knows. Why did the DOW fall overnight when news came out its in recession again? Was it like some new revelation from god?

    We will find that during reporting season, the market will report what we already know, and fall MORE.. its a joke really.

    So I think now, that we are far from the bottom,, support lines mean nothing anymore, neither do fundamentals.. and even if we do see a recovery, there is nothing to suggest its not going to be another dead cat bounce.
     
  15. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    I agree with this statement.

    Stock markets are currently reacting to fear and for this fear to go away we'll have to wait for actual figures to be released by companies and economies worldwide.

    Will the Oz stock market recover if our companies and our economy are robust?

    It's hard to tell because our stock market is daily looking at the US for direction and unfortunately the US and US financial companies are not in good shape so this recovery could take a while to come.

    cheers
     
  16. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    since all the news to come out now will be negative, once report season comes, this will only push the market lower..
     
  17. try anything once

    try anything once Well-Known Member

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    Hey... this sounds like capitulation.... maybe we are now at the bottom afterall?:D
     
  18. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    hehehe we may be!
     
  19. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    charting the all ords, I would hope we are at the bottom now..

    If we break through this point, then I would say we are in for a long term downtrend..

    what are your thoughts?
     

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  20. vovo

    vovo Member

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    CRC, if you bet on all the horses, you will pick the winner.