Do we have vision for the market as a whole without worrying about the details of operations of the economy and market as a whole? How could we get this vision without crying or cursing or warning us for the sky falling down with the margin of safety we could feel confidently from the vision? We need to stand on the shoulders of the history to see from the past into the future with some basic but logic understanding of the causes which lead the long term history into the form it should be. We need to stand on the shoulders of the Great Players or Scholars in the market to sharpen our minds to get the chances which are given by the history, the explosive breaking out, the good black swans after all of bad black swans have played their parts(we could say we would miss some bad black swans in our vision very confidently). Re-read the charts of XAO and DOW 100 years and put some thoughts into wdongli - Member Blogs for the trend in future of the market logically and philosophically even some odds could break down all in the vision. We do need to think if we are wrong for the reward what we should be ready for the worst.