Join our investing community

Stock market jitters

Discussion in 'Shares' started by perky, 8th Jun, 2006.

  1. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    300
    Location:
    Sydney
    Hi all,
    Stock market investors are a funny lot.


    http://www.optusnet.com.au/news/story/abc/20060608/18/business/1658726.inp

    "The Australian share market has dropped more than 2 per cent as inflation fears hit the market.

    News that an extra 56,000 jobs were created in May has sent the share market plummeting.

    There is concern that higher wages will put pressure on inflation, and the Reserve Bank will raise rates again. "

    Yet if 56,000 jobs had been lost - what would the stock market have done then?

    It must be getting close to the bottom now , you would think??

    What do you guys think?
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Nope - I don't think it's over yet. Not sure it will go much lower - but I doubt it will go higher for a while.
     
  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Perky,

    This stuff is better than Muppet Show hahahahaaaa..
    I think that they forgot to add ... that too much rain in Sydney may push DOW below 10600 Level ( currently at 10930 ).
    Keep laughing :D :D
     
  4. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    603
    Location:
    Sydney
    Since we are having some 'guesses' for a bit of fun, my totally uninformed opinion would be..........

    Oil price fall is a good thing and although it's hurting a few big oil companies initially and affecting the Market, it will be a great thing for most companies a little further down the road. When this current oil peak continues to fall and after a bit more 'jitters' to create some more buying opportunities, the market will take off again on the strength of the lower oil prices..........hopefully before this Quarter's Distribution........at which point I'm sure NavraInvest would put on a free fireworks show over North Sydney due to finishing the year with a great year end result and all Funds earning a Performance Fee! :D

    OR........I may be totally wrong.........:p

    Note: Please consult a Financial Adviser before taking action on this advice as the author has had some very nice white wine with his fish dinner. ;)
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Yep....I tend to agree with you.
    We may see XJO at: 4900; 4877/80; 4852 possibly 4800.
    Be :cool:
     
  6. TakeStock

    TakeStock Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    140
    Location:
    Sydney
    I 'predict' that in one month's time the XJO will be somewhere between 2537.738 and 8354.836;)

    I'm very much a long term value investor (with the occasional shorter term trade) and therefore I don't get too concerned about the market in the short term - except where it has a significant drop and presents some good buying opportunities. Additionally, I don't mind a fair amount of volatility - helps feed the Navra fund (and other funds that love volatility):D
     
  7. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    932
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Takestock,

    What other funds like volatility that you have an interest in?

    Cheers.
     
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Carl,
    I like your numbers - hahahahaa.
    :D
     
  9. TakeStock

    TakeStock Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    140
    Location:
    Sydney
    None that I have an interest in, however, boutique funds that actively trade love the volatility - gives them buying and selling opportunities.

    My other share investments are all direct; based on value investing principles.

    Cheers
     
  10. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Glebe,

    I have got no association with any fund (except Navra) but you may consider " Hunter Hall Value Growth " fund (18% net annualized return).
    ;)
     
  11. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    932
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Yep I like Hunter Hall, I've put my wife's super in their super fund. It's doing well. High upfront fees though.
     
  12. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Keep $miling than !!
    :D
     
  13. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    300
    Location:
    Sydney
    Guys - check out this very interesting article - http://www.kitco.com/ind/Droke/jun142006.html

    "Looking beyond the immediate present, the July-August period this summer (in USA) is the time frame that has the greatest interest to us comparable to the final two months of the 8-year cycle low of 1998. Back in July-August ‘98 the market was hardest hit and fell almost continuously (along with several major commodities) until the bottom in early September of that year. From the spring peak that year until the September lows the market had fallen in excess of 20% in just a few weeks, making it one of the shortest bear markets on record. With numerous interim bear market signals having already been given, it’s looking like a repeat performance of the ‘98 experience is a good possibility before the current 8-year cycle bottoms, i.e., a short-lived but potentially sharp bear market."

    So we are still in for some volatility - and maybe a sharp fall in August.
    What do you guys think of that?