Surely the bull market is going to end soon.. with pain..

Tropo said

"Problem may arise below 6000-5800 (XJO)."

Getting pretty close now at 5819!!

Anyone getting a margin call after today (now down 145)?

Have kept plenty of powder dry but not entering the market at this stage. Will be plenty more opportunities coming up.

 

"Have kept plenty of powder dry but not entering the market at this stage. Will be plenty more opportunities coming up."

 

I recon we have almost bottomed out.. might see another 50 points drop..

I would say now is a good buying time before we see a rebound..

 

looks like the property index is sitting on support at the moment.

 

crc_error,

Do you know what can happen if long term support line breaks down ??

 

Please tell us Tropo, what happens when it breaks through the support line?

 

If you are not aware what may happen have a look at attached weekly MBL chart.

 

If that happens, then we all should close up shop! As its down down down!

 

Well...it may not be that bad...but if the worst comes to the worst it will stop at $0. In the meantime you may consider short selling.
Quite often breaks down/up are false (eg. XJO break up above 6410 not long ago).

All we can do is to think in terms of probable outcome and be prepared for those outcomes.
Some outcomes are more likely than others BUT all outcomes are possible.
NOTHING is impossible in the market.

 

More funds into Navra

Is there anyone out there placing more funds into their Navra holdings? I will start off by saying I am adding a further 20percent to my "current" holdings. This consists of some equity from real estate plus a portion from LE. I will be sitting at around 55percent LVR.

Anyone?

Liverpool St.

 

More Navra

Yes, I was in two minds also. But, for me the whole concept is still on track. The Navra fund is an income fund, nothing more and nothing less (some slight capital gain), it is to supplement shortcomings in income due to negative gearing or to supplement a lifestyle. The growth comes from the property acquisition, and I am still getting growth in Sydney and Brisbane/Gold Coast. I also get growth from my super fund and my wife and I salary sacrifice our total salaries in super. Basically, I live off the distributions I receive each 3 months, paying interest in advance on the margin loan to help offset the "tax problem". I have 12 months savings as a parachute invested in a high interest at call account. It is interesting to note that the newspapers are citing that the gains for the year have been wiped off. Maybe, but not if you have received high income along the way.

Liverpool St.

 

Geez I wish I sold in May 2007!!

Here I am nearly a year later down 27%.. at least when I sell my managed funds and buy into ETF's I won't have to worry about CGT as much

 

I could be snide and suggest that if you wait a little longer then you won't have to worry about CGT at all...

But I can't talk. I took my medicine last month and the market is now finally back below where I sold out at. If you factor in the financing cost to hold equities then it really is a poor investment at the moment. You earn nothing unless your investment returns more than 9% pa in absolute returns, and the markets are headed south for the foreseeable future.

Sometimes cash really is the appropriate asset class...

But don't listen to me, I stuffed my timing up like a lot of others. What do I know!

Cheers,
Michael

 

I think we will bottom out at 3500 as per my attached XAO chart. You can see XPJ index is already there down to the long term support line, so there is no reason why XAO wont go to that support as well.

 

CRC,

I'm no technical analyst but, to me, drawing a linear line on a chart with such a long timeframe makes no sense. Growth is exponential and as such I would think you need a log plot to draw a sensible trend line. I hate to see a chart over a timeframe of many years which has a linear scale - it is likely to look like a bubble at the end because of natural exponential growth.

 

I've mentioned this many times before!

 

Yeah the only thing in my case is that I've prepaid until EOFY. It was 7.65% on a loss of 20%. I don't expect any banks to discount this time around, credit is hard to come by.

 

Trend Lines - StockCharts.com

 

You know what really annoys me (and is a good learning curve)? It's all those commentators (Huntley's, AMP' etc ) that had ongoing, consistent reports about how we are just about to start the third leg of the bull market and they were WRONG! I read and read and read and every indicator pointed to positive ongoing growth supported by PE, earnings potential, econonmy, Chine de-coupling etc. If they are wrong it just goes to show that long term time in the market, ignoring commentators even the professional one's and assuming long term average growth of 10% is all there is.

I take TOTAL responsibility for my 30-40% loss on shares over the past 6 months, and it is an excellent (but expensive) learning curve that you can't get no matter how much reading you do (have you ever learnt to ride a bike by reading?) but honestly, it just seems ridiculous that these guys were Soooo positive about the stages of the market, how it was less than previous booms blah blah blah and it means NOTHING.

I am more amazed about this than anything I think.

Tim