Join our investing community

Trading Tactics for tough times - Alan Hull

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Simon Hampel, 20th Jun, 2008.

  1. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,586
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    ASX Podcast: Tactics for tough times - Alan Hull



    Presentation slides (PDF)

    ASX podcasts - 2008 - ASX - Australian Securities Exchange
     
    Last edited: 17th Sep, 2016
  2. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Jun, 2008
  3. ilori

    ilori Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th May, 2007
    Posts:
    75
    Location:
    Mt Macedon, Vic
    Thanks for the charts and audio... would have liked to get there but wasn't able to.

    Definitely one of the best thinkers I've come across - always get the feeling that for everything he says... there's a mountain of knowledge behind it... but he can simply things to their essence.
     
  4. austing

    austing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    359
    Location:
    north maleny
    Good Post.

    Traders and Investors will never agree so the following quotes from Alan sum it up:

    "So if you’re trading shares then cash is king.
    But if you have an income portfolio then it’s time to go shopping…hence Warren Buffet is running around with his cheque book.

    Share traders must be prepared to change their trading tactics…the bull market is over.
    If an income stock’s price goes lower then be prepared to ‘Dollar cost’ average it down.

    In either case buy fundamentally sound defensive stocks with very manageable debt."

    So one has to decide which of the above they are: Trader Vs Investor? Occasionally you find a person who is both and operate separate portfolios accordingly!

    Me, I'm 100% an income investor nowadays. Gave up trading years ago because I like to earn income that continues regardless of whether I get out of bed or not. Essentially I'm lazy:D Plus I have met a hell of a lot more successful investors than I have traders!

    As an experiment find very wealthy retiries and ask them how they got there.

    Cheers - Gordon
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Jun, 2008
  5. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    If this chart means anything we should be buying when all ords is under 4500 points
    Cheers
     

    Attached Files:

  6. ilori

    ilori Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th May, 2007
    Posts:
    75
    Location:
    Mt Macedon, Vic
    Hi Bill, how do you work out 4500? Are you looking for a 50% retracement?

    Regards,
    Ilori
     
  7. ilori

    ilori Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th May, 2007
    Posts:
    75
    Location:
    Mt Macedon, Vic
    Something I'm a little unclear on, is Alan saying that his ActVest strategy is no longer sound in the current market?

    I noticed in the audio he talked about IPL (Pivot) and seemed to dismiss it, yet that same stock could be (probably is) part of his ActVest strategy.

    If the All Ords shows an uptrend according to MA crossover, should the ActVest strategy kick into action?

    Appreciate your thoughts.

    Regards,
    Ilori
     
  8. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Ilori,

    I was just looking at the chart and it's progression over the years and assumed that it will come down to what seems to be a logical level.
    I know companies are more profitable these days and therefore should be worth more but at the end of the day a share is only worth what people are willing to pay.

    All ords is around 5400 now so not long to go I guess (another -15%?).
    Anyway, considering the economic problems we are facing a market turnaround at 4500 points would be good I think.

    I say this because the price of oil is increasing our cost of living and inflation is likely to stay at current levels.
    Even if the RBA drops int. rates a little the banks probably won't follow so the financial strain on family budgets will remain at high levels.
    People will have no option than to cut spending further and this means lower company profits and possibly even lower share market prices.

    btw, this is only an assumption, I have no hard evidence that the markets will go either way.

    Cheers
     
  9. austing

    austing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    359
    Location:
    north maleny
    Hi gang,

    Another issue which may possibly be adding to distorting the upward trend in more recent years is that there is an enormous amount of money being placed in the sharemarket due to the attractiveness of super etc. A sizable amount of this ends up in Aussie shares which is a pretty small market in relative terms. Plus the mandate of many managed funds is that they have to have a certain percentage in Oz shares.

    Add to this the likes of the Future Fund etc which I think is currently using State Street and Vanguard index funds to invest their money. Also , some Baby boomers (and there's a lot of them) are moving out of property and shifting it into Super (again often in shares) which is tax free at 60.

    So perhaps for some years yet due to these factors the Aussie share market may buck trends of the past. Or maybe not! But again in my case it doesn't matter because of my focus on income and hence I couldn't care less about price volatility other than to top up when our favoured stocks price declines.

    Cheers - Gordon
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Jun, 2008
  10. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,385
    Location:
    NSW
    Why? :eek:
    50% retracement is at 4757 (XJO).
     
  11. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Tropo

    I thought the chart speaks for itself.
    I am thinking that if it increases in a straight line for many years and all of a sudden we have a massive spike there are 2 things that can happen.

    1 it will stay at that level for a while until time catches up with it or
    2 it will gradually decline to where it should be.

    With all the financial problems, the credit crisis, the Iran clouds approaching, it could take 1 year or more before fear eases and people's confidence returns.
    If it takes time for the situation to get back to normal then the chart should be higher.
    If it gets back to normal tomorrow then the chart should be lower.

    IMHO
    Cheers
     
  12. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,385
    Location:
    NSW
    BV,

    Charts always speak for themselves
    There is nothing on the attached chart (IMHO) which may suggest that you (or anybody else) should long the market at/under 4500 level (if we get there).

    1 it will stay at that level for a while until time catches up with it or
    2 it will gradually decline to where it should be.


    It seems that YOU are trying to tell where the market should be...

    If it takes time for the situation to get back to normal then the chart should be higher.
    If it gets back to normal tomorrow then the chart should be lower.


    Charts do not tell you this.;)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 24th Jun, 2008
  13. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Tropo

    ok, I will rethink my strategy in 6 months time

    Cheers
     
  14. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,385
    Location:
    NSW
  15. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Trend Lines - StockCharts.com

    Conclusion
    Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. Other items - such as horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis - should be employed to validate trend line breaks. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent. By using trend line breaks for warnings, investors and traders can pay closer attention to other confirming signals for a potential change in trend.
     
  16. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,385
    Location:
    NSW
    Also:

    "Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well.
    It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue".
    Trend Lines - StockCharts.com
     
  17. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    The ASX is now below 5000
    Is anyone buying soon or are you waiting on the sidelines?
    Cheers
     
  18. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,586
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    I'll be buying some more in my SMSF in due course - but for my other investments, I'm waiting on the sidelines for now.

    I'm not convinced we will see returns above the 10%+ cost of interest over the next 6 - 12 months. I think we'll see a volatile market for the next 12+ months.

    If I do enter in again for my non-SMSF investments, I may well do it without leverage (although the returns still have to exceed the returns I could get by parking the money in an offset account).
     
  19. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

    Joined:
    10th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    1,172
    Why ungeared?

    Cheers
    N
     
  20. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,586
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    As I said ... "I'm not convinced we will see returns above the 10%+ cost of interest over the next 6 - 12 months"

    ... and in the short term, capital preservation is critical for me as I have some large financial obligations coming up.