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The unofficial Navra performance tracking thread

Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by MichaelWhyte, 20th Jun, 2007.

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  1. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Hi guys,

    I'm asked every now and again to post an update on my tracking spreadsheet of Navra's performance relative the ASX200. So instead of posting it in all sorts of unrelated threads I thought I'd start a thread and keep posting updates here periodically. Feel free to bookmark this thread and post a "please post another update" request when you're interested and I'll do my best to reply ASAP with a latest update. This is only for the Aus Retail fund though as that's all I hold. Can't post updates on the US fund or the Aus Wholesale fund.

    OK, so for the current quarter, the million dollar question is: "Can Navra keep its nose in front and outperform the index for the first time that I'm aware of for a full quarter?" So far the recent volatility of the ASX means that, even with a cash holding at around 40% and an over-weight exposure to the ASX50, the NavTrade Aus Retail fund is beating the ASX200 index for the quarter.

    The attached graph shows current performance but the last two datum points for the Navra fund are extrapolated and not actuals. The ASX200 is bouncing back and when she's a steep upwards curve it typically outperforms Navra. So, time will tell whether the current bounce continues North and we see the index overtake Navra as we approach the line for the end of the quarter or whether another little hiccup or two in the ASX allows Navra to keep its nose in front.

    Bring on the volatility I say! Loving the fact that what is effectively a very conservative fund that holds predominately the ASX50 and around 40% cash can keep up with the ASX200. Now that's what I call a performance to risk profile premium! Woohoo!!

    Cheers,

    Michael.
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Hi Mark,

    Thanks for that. Are you able to go back for as long as you have data for and repeat the same thing. ie the last coupla years? Assuming re-investment perhaps..
     
  3. MJK

    MJK Well-Known Member

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    Michael,

    Good stuff, thanks for the low down. I love NavraInvest AU its a great SANF fund in my opinion.

    MJK:D
     
  4. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Hia Glebe,

    I think you might have me and Pitt St mixed up there... ;)

    But, yes, I reckon I might be able to do that for you but not today. That spreadsheet with all the back data is on my home computer. I started another one when I re-invested under the company name.

    But I'll email myself the spreadsheet and update it for recent prices since I exited it in my own name a few months back.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  5. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

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    do you have any idication how the fund is going compared to the asx 100 or asx 50? i know there is usually little difference, but i have noticed that there is a bit due to the volitility at the moment???
     
  6. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Great work Michael!

    I think the points made about performance relative to how much invested and how much in cash the fund is are critically important.

    To match an index when nearly half your money is safely in cash waiting for big buying opportunities makes both the performance quite extraordinary and the risk profile much lower than many long only funds IMHO.

    Thanks again for the chart.

    N
     
  7. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Nigel,

    I agree completely. The fundamental premise of investing is risk = return. But in the instance of Navra I believe we are getting a nice return premium over its risk profile. That is, if I were to invest in a fund that mirrored the ASX50 and held 40% in cash then I should expect a much lower return than a 100% invested ASX200 tracker. So I'm getting quite a nice return premium for my risk profile. I get a really good SANF due to its conservativeness but a really healthy return despite its conservativeness.

    Love this fund.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  8. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

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    You are a friggin legend Michael :)
    Good stuff, this is what I love to look at.
    Echo to Nigel's thoughts as well , 21.9% right now is pretty bloody good in my book.
     
  9. handyandy

    handyandy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, its just OK:D:D:D:p

    Gives me a real tax problem.:D:D (but not enough to get involved in trees, ever!!!)

    Cheers
     
  10. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    The more I read, the more 20% pa returns I experience, and the more info I have shared from community-minded people like Michael, the more I like the NI fund ... Thanks Michael :)
    Cheers
    Carl
     
  11. das_gute

    das_gute New Member

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    I think one of the best independent comparison tools to use is to goto a site like morningstar or S&P to check Navra's performance. And based on the information there, Navra has been consistently underperforming its benchmark index.

    I don't intent to offend those who are promoting this fund but I do think everyone should seek out independent research/data when it comes to investing their hard earned cash.
     
  12. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Das Gute

    You're absolutely right. Facts are facts.

    In a bull market like we've had since 2 months before the NavraInvest funds were launched, where there's been limited volatility (compared to historical volatility) then the fund was always going to underperform.

    Let's look at it again once the market gets back to a more normal pattern.

    Does it bother me that there's funds which have done heaps better over the last couple of years. Well yes I would have liked the foresight to pick those stellar performers...but I just can't predict the future... no matter how I try. :p

    So I'm comfortable with a fund that can do 20%+ which is coupled with the safety of being substantially in cash whilst doing so.

    As I've said to many people over the years. The fund is a tool for a purpose. It generates high income with reasonable certainty. That's useful in some scenarios such as retirees looking for reasonable secure income or those with heavy negative gearing obligations. Does it suit everyone? No. Of course not.

    Do I hold interests in other funds and in direct shares? Of course. But it forms the core of my equities exposure for the reasons I've noted above.

    Just my 2.2 cents worth. But you're absolutely right, we must look at the facts and only the facts.

    Cheers
    N
     
  13. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    das_gute,

    Again, I agree with that in principal. Except that the "benchmark index" that Navra measures itself against is the ASX200, and if you read the comments above about risk premium you'll see why it doesn't perform as well as other funds that also benchmark themselves against that index.

    I bet you its doing better than the "capital secure" funds or the "ASX50" funds. The problem is that Morningstar and others don't differentiate accurately based on the true risk profile of the fund.

    Holding Navra up against other ASX200 trackers gives an unfair comparison for its risk profile and cash weighting IMHO. Sometimes you need to look beyond the nice table with stars and understand what drives a funds performance and what's its risk profile is.

    Again, just my 2c.

    Cheers mate,
    Michael.
     
  14. MJK

    MJK Well-Known Member

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    Morningstar puts Navra up against the "bench mark ASX200 index as Michael says, not against other income funds specifically. No one so far has been able to suggest a fund that pays income as high as Navra yet..... although many have tried.;)

    I would argue that none of the funds Navra is compared to, in relation to Morningstar ratings, are paying similar income.

    MJK:D
     
  15. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    OK,

    A couple of weeks on and we're almost across the line for the end of the quarter and how is Navra stacking up against the ASX200 I hear you ask? Well the good news is that its extended its lead and looks like coming home in front of the index! Well done Mr Algorithm!! ;)

    There's still room for a hiccup or two but my money is now firmly on Navra to outperform the index for this quarter and return a healthy profit as well. Beating the index in a rising market, way to go!!

    Join with me now in a sacred volatility-dance to placate the market Gods and bring forth more of the same, AYYY ayy ayy ayy AYY ayy ayy ayy...

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     

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  16. MJK

    MJK Well-Known Member

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    If NI beats the index this quarter I was wondering if their fee wil be greater based on the current formula or would it be higher using the 1.5% fixed fee comming in next year?

    MJK:D
     
  17. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    That all depends on how much the outperformance is ... the current fee is based on a multiplication factor. It could go either way.
     
  18. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

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    You crack me up you goose :) :)

    I was thinking of ringing Steve today to ask him what the dividend is likely to be, might wait till Monday when its certain.
     
  19. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    You could always wait until it is officially announced ... asking about it earlier isn't going to change it :p :D
     
  20. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the update Michael (I got your name right this time! :p )
     
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