Managed Funds The unofficial Navra performance tracking thread

Come on Simon, wheres the fun in that ?

 

when I saw Steve in early June, he suggested a minimum of 7%,possibly more depending on how the fund performed in the last month. If the fund outperformed the index, that excess would be possibly go to NI else any extra performance would add to the distribution. My guess is a distribution of around 7.5-8%

 

and the total funds under management is getting very close to a quarter billion dollars!! how good does that sound.

If you are still reading Steve, thanks and well done

 

Spoke to Steve briefly this morning (in LA on Venice Beach no less). NI outperformed the index this quarter by a reasonable amount thus earning itself a healthy fee (good for shareholders but not for unitholders). He still thinks this distribution will be around 7% depending on add backs. Based on that,I have revised my guestimate for this quarters distribution to 6.75-7.25% .

 

What a bummer. Such a lousy return for three months hard work!

Sure beats the 2-4% annual return from deposits in banks.
(Yes, I know there is a different risk profile...and that it won't continue forever...)

Steve

 

Around 7% for the Australian? That has to be a record! Fantastic result!!

Was there any mention of what sort of Distribution may occur for the US Fund? That Exchange Rate has created one hell of a headwind for it.

 

Had an email from Mark at NavraInvest this morning.
Quote:
In the dying minutes of the financial year indications are that the Navra Australian funds could be making a final distribution in excess of 7 cents per unit (approx 6%).
End Quote.

 

it would be fantastic if we could see an update of this graph to see how they are going with the current conditions

I have the ASX down 2.6% since July 2, and Navra down 2.3%

From July 24, ASX down 5%, Navra 3.8%

For a company who was holding about 30% cash, youd would expect it to be only 70% of what the market is down, which its not. What are peoples opinions on this???

 

Update 10/08/2007

Hi guys,

Given the recent ASX volatility, I figured you lot might be interested in how Navra has been performing. The last two datum points are extrapolated, but even the known points show Navra having opened up a bit of a lead on the ASX through this pull-back. Still, it has lost quite a bit of ground, which is never nice. Just not enough as has the ASX itself.

Cheers,
Michael

 

Don't forget that the fund would have started buying as the market dropped and even these new purchases may still have gone down further.

It wont be until the next upswing that we get the benefit of that buying.

 

MichaelWhyte, am I right in reading that chart as saying Navra has had just positive growth last few days?

 

For you maybe. I think it's great. I just hope it doesn't go up before my money comes through.

Mark

 

I guess as has been mentioned, the test is how it performs on the rebounds. It is easy to outperform in a down market - my dog has outperformed the asx over the last couple of weeks!
With the interest rates having gone up the return should even better during the times when the fund has large cash reserves...

 

Thanks Michael, always appreciate the update.
Mark Leo.

 

Is the current volatility the kind of thing that the navra system thrives on?

"The total of all income received in the Funds, net of fund expenses (the management fee), will be distributed to investors each financial year"

How is it decided how much to leave as capitol gain (ie increased unit price) and how much to pay as a distribution?

 

If, for neutral to postive cashflow, you were relying on the distributions from Navra, what distribution % would you base your numbers on? I'm planning on keeping a cash buffer that would be able to make the margin interest payments and fund rental shortfalls for a quarter (eg assume that navra pays 0% distribution for one quarter). Looking at past distributions I think this strategy would work if I based my portfolio on a 3% from navra each quarter.

Is this conservative enough do you think? or should I have enough invested in Navra that a 2.5% distribution would regularly cover my costs? What kind of market would we need to be in for the the navra system not to regulary (3 out 4 times) generate at least a 2.5% distribution.

Cheers
Simon

 

I seem to recall Steve commenting in the past that the ASX under normal conditions trades in 10% range during the year and is fairly confident therefore that his dollar cost trading should generate a 10% return most years.

I am with Sim though - this statement has not been tested and since the inception of the fund, the market has been abnormal. I would be constantly monitoring LVRs and have some form a buffer in place to cover shortfalls - either cash or LOC.

 

Thanks Sim, I'll aim for at least a six month buffer.

Is it theoretically impossible for the fund to return 0%? I figure if the fund is trading it has to return some distribution even if the actual capitol is being eroded by falling share prices?