I know "thought for worst" in the market since IT bust but it was never so vivid as I see it now. It is very bad to lose. It is not good to feel the pain. It is only good for lessons. Hope I would never forget "Thought for worst" after this time I failed to think for the worst! All about the position and behavior XAO has been in anxiety for nearly 21 months and it could not sustain the pains and the uncertainty anymore. It is racing ahead in the downtrend and has made lowest point in 25 months. It is a typical reaction "sell first and think later" in panic. 1. in sideline, its irrationality and craziness are obvious. 2. in the stampede of the here, fear and pain are unavoidable. 3. how could you be in calm when the money is burnt by nearly all in the market? What could be trusted by XAO? Nothing! Good Australia economies and low unemployment rate are nothing could calm the market. XAO is not preparing for worst case but it is calling the worst things in house! What's the worst case? So the panic selling raises a question to all in XAO's strampede. How long and how low will this selling be? No one is sure. Has the damage been done or just beginning? Overoptimism in April put my feet in the valley of death and then I become a warrior in a war. The things were worse than my expectation. XAO was not anxious anymore and was not in denial, but panic and more panic than anyone in this world. Human sentiment has linkage with the memory. GFC has told XAO that it could not be decoupled from disasters somewhere else. So this time it wants to lead the way into GFC II without matter true or false. Would XAO be 3000 when DOW is above 10000 and FTE was 4500? Quit possible! Mass psychology is extremely powerful. It could do so! No too many options if synchronized with the market sentiment No study is free and the tuition fees have been paid. Could it be too expensive? I didn't believe I could be so tightly synchronized with the market sentiment. However I have to admit it has happened to me. The wall of worries if accumulated to some size, could crash anything too. I never felt so fragile in the market even when I lost huge paper profit in IT bust. Why synchronized so tightly? 1. cost run and used-up cash reserve has destroyed the necessary buffer for worse cases. 2. income from labor value is zero and the losses of paper profit and capital is a question mark to my behavior. 3. it is hopeless to get cash reserve in sunny day before 15 August 4. so sell on fire or hold when the herd is stampeding? Knowing much more about the market since April after my head hit the stone one after another. Could I behave more prudently? The most important question to myself is: Could I sell before the market as a whole sells first and thinks later? Could I sell in the time average when market turns to be bullish as a true value investor? How to avoid synchronization? Reduce the average cost between the market despondency and relief and lock the targeted bottom line by average profit between overoptimism to euphoria. Learn to identify the growth as base horses for future gain. No free money and effort-less business and life. If necessary, I should take tropo's advice seriously, reconsider how to use my labor value. When I put money into the property market I prepared to do anything to hold them.. Since I start to play in the stock market, I am generally greedy and never think I should prepare for it. Things to a market is always that if you don't prepare for the worst, you make things worse. It is not a theoretical problem but real one to me until this time I felt the pains. I would not sell on fire, which could not correct my mistakes. It is the reaction to be resynchronized by market sentiment. I need to evaluate myself objectively for lessons and stay in the market as a prudent business people. Feel shameful for my greed. Feel hopes due to the lessons I have got from the mistakes I have got. Feel the pain in the market run. Things can be worse than my expectation. I would like to do anything to keep me in the market. The first target is to get my cash reserve back to the level it should be. For this goal, if necessary, I could sell my labor value again! It is the goal I have to achieve first! No this no market business! True reasons to think for real worst cases? When I worked for others, I never worry about the butters and milks, and the capital to keep my job! The salary for labor value provides a natural margin of safety! It needs a buffer to replace this natural buffer when I put myself into the market as full-time student. As a employee, in our home we could be ignorant and arrogant to deal with the market. Since we have got the buffer to be so. I quit my job. So I have to set up a buffer by myself first. Did believe myself too much and lose the necessary prudence. What was my road map to guide me in all of the time in the market? In good time it is not a problem since genius and bum both make some money. In bad time both genius and bums could be burnt on fire! I have to realize my labor value first and then get the gain to expand! I failed to put this buffer as my bottom line goal. Once in worst time, I expose myself on the fire! I can do anything but I could not allow myself on fire. Once it happens, the only buffer is I don't lose all of the consciousness. The first part of my business plan should be how to go though this worst time consciously and get all of lessons into my bloods. Panic: Sit On the fire first! XAO could lead the world in panic selling but I have to hold myself on the fire! I could not lead XAO into the hell and then the whole world drop into the hell! In the worst case I could stop my full time study and pick up any job for living expenses. The rental incomes is little bit more than the interest for the investment houses and capital in the stock market. Two old couple, in worst case, with their right owned house, don't need too much. Only one thing is headache: what should I pick up? I don't want to be professional Engineer any more but in worst case, what could I do? In the market you have to be survival first and then you could have chances. $25,000 a year is all for me to hold my shares in worst case, which should not be a number to get if I work hard enough to sell my labor!