Today's market

Sydney Futures pointing to an 87 point rise today, following 212 DOW rise overnight.

I always like it when I hear the second shoe of 'volatility' hit the ground.

 

Yes, it sure is a bootiful sound

 

Time will tell how tough the ground is...

 

one step forward, two steps back

 

ok, that was very pessimistic of me

What are you guys thinking for the next six months? I'm trying to determine two things:
1) Am I really long-term the stocks I'm holding at the moment?
2) If not, will I benefit getting out soon and coming back in around Oct?

I was thinking about writing options to reduce losses, but with this volatility, I think there will be all sorts of headaches with that. I was even thinking of buying 6-month or so puts against the stocks and then writing options, but there are all sorts of issues there too.

I think I'll see how today goes, how the DJIA goes overnight and depending on volatility and direction, implement some sort of option plan. If the XJO goes nuts today against the DJIA, it may be a good time to write some calls. Just thinking aloud, but I guess I need to decide if it's more likely to coninue upward or downward. I'm thinking downward atm, so writing calls (maybe with protection) is probably a good option.

 

T,

"What are you guys thinking for the next six months?".

Rule 46 = In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word...NOBODY !!.
Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but react instead to what does happen.


"I was thinking about writing options to reduce losses, but with this volatility, I think there will be all sorts of headaches with that. I was even thinking of buying 6-month or so puts against the stocks and then writing options, but there are all sorts of issues there too.
I think I'll see how today goes, how the DJIA goes overnight and depending on volatility and direction, implement some sort of option plan. If the XJO goes nuts today against the DJIA, it may be a good time to write some calls. Just thinking aloud, but I guess I need to decide if it's more likely to coninue upward or downward. I'm thinking downward atm, so writing calls (maybe with protection) is probably a good option "

RULE 9 = Successful traders ISOLATE themselves from the opinions of others.

 

Rule 1324324 = There's no point of having a forum if there is no discussion, if no one voices opinions and no one is willing to use those opinions to make more informed decisions.

Gee how completely boring; a forum where no one says anything except trying to prove others wrong. Sounds like a similar forum that most of us are a part of.

 

-T-,

Just because you didn't get the answers you wanted, doesn't mean you can have a go at Tropo (well, you can if you want, but don't be surprised when no one is willing to help you out in the future because of your attitude). What he's posted there is absolutely correct. Now, he's a successful trader who makes a living trading. You however, it seems are not.

I'd suggest you might want to take on board what he's telling you and use that to your advantage. Most people spend a lot of time, money and effort learning what you've just been given for free. I suggest you either take it in your stride or find another forum if this one is not to your liking.

Mark

 

Mark

With all due respect, your reply doesn't surprise me. I'll be honest and say that I do think this forum has become about justifying one's comments and less about discussion (especially in the shares/MFs section).

I asked a simple question, Tropo decided to try to prove me wrong by making ridiculous comments and you (as usual) have followed the crowd and decided to forego thinking for yourself.

Everything is based on opinion; books, articles, market wraps, discussions, collaboration, etc. Without opinion where would we be? All I was trying to do was initiate discussion! But I think it's futile justifying my retort further.

As for making comments about my position, once again I think you've brought Somersoft to InvestEd. It's a shame really.

-T-

 

Good questions. On 1) I can't answer that. I guess you need to go back to the reasons you bought the relevant stocks and decide whether those reasons remain valid given your view on where the market and those stocks are heading.

2) October is historically an interesting month for share markets (the others being Jan - Sept and Nov - Dec - just kidding and with apologies to Mark Twain! )

I guess one thing that seems to be lurching towards certainty is higher interest rates. Particularly if the NZ inflation bug is caught by Australia (altho surely the plunging prices on plasma screens must help ). Theory says higher interest rates = higher costs for business = lower profits.

Will that evenuate? Don't know, but that is something that may influence your medium term plans.

Conflict in Israel/Mid East/Oil prices/China or "Chindia" story and demand for our resources/gold as a safe refuge??? may all be things that influence you.

Just some food for thought.

Cheers
N.

 

-T-,
I do not have intention to proof anybody wrong, because I am not right all the time.
My ridiculous answer (as you said), it is my opinion only ....
Nobody knows what will happen in the market 6 months from now.
You may ask 10 different people where market may be some time in the future and you will get 10 different answers.
Would it be of any help ? So, what would you do in this case ?

Sim,
It's nothing wrong with education if right questions are ask. I am not sure if predictions have anything to do with education (correct me if I am wrong).
Above rules are NOT only for traders !!! They are for investors also. How we all can be successful investors/traders without rules and understanding what are we going to achieve?

Investing has a lot of common with trading so you must understand what you are doing and why. The difference is a time span (it's not easy to put the line where trading ends and investing begins).
Maybe it's nothing wrong with predictions as long as you understand that you are trying to predict something which is unpredictable !!

 

Interesting opinions there !!!

Let me take out my crystal ball - next 3 months very volatile (good for you-know-who's fund) , as fears about OIL, interest rates etc change on a weekly basis in the US (and so here). October usual 10% or more downturn, Nov a little up and a nice December.
So what am I going to do - maybe take some (hopefull ) profits over the next 2.5 months at some point - get out of everything (all of my managed funds, shares in late September). Get back in November some time.
Test CFD's in Oct (do some down trades), then do some up trades in November or December.

But who knows !!!!!!!!!!!!!!