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Twelve Themes of Christmas...

Discussion in 'General Investing Discussion' started by Tropo, 27th Dec, 2009.

  1. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Twelve Themes of Christmas (guesses, wishes, and concerns)

    1) The dollar has bottomed on a multi-year basis after a major test in 2009.
    2) Interest rates are going higher as this recovery “normalizes” in 2010; we see 5% on the 10-year T-note before the year is done.
    3) US job growth will be surprisingly strong.
    4) There will be a crisis within the Eurozone late in 2010 that will shake the foundation of the euro as a single currency.
    5) Asian-block currencies will breakout against the developed world majors and move higher.
    6) Extremely tight intermarket correlations will finally begin to breakdown and currencies will be increasingly judged on both fundamentals and yield differentials.
    7) Stock market volatility will increase as government backstops disappear. Stocks will initially get hammered on the broader realization the real economy is improving i.e. money flow.
    8) China will continue to rock through mid-year, but at some time during the second half of 2010 it will experience a major financial disruption that will rock markets around the globe.
    9) Gold sees $700 before $1,500 (Sorry Dad!)
    10) South Africa begins to unravel politically (it intensifies for international consumption) and the rand gets hammered.
    11) Russia makes another major incursion west, increasing its “buffer zone;” continuing to pressure Baltic and Central European Currencies.
    12) Thank you for reading Currency Currents and putting up with our rants, raves, mistakes, bad calls, and curmudgeon-ness (I don’t think it’s a word but fits well here).
    We hope we have shared some things good; we know we have received many things good from the amazing quality of people who read CC each day.

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

    Jack Crooks LLC
     
  2. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    Tropo
    Never trust a Crook :D
     
  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Hahahaa..Good one Bill !! :D
    I don't !! :p
    This guy is not bad, and yes he is sometimes wrong like all analysts...unfortunately...:rolleyes:
     
  4. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    I'd be surprised if the US and the USD recovers as quickly as he thinks they will and I don't share his views on Gold and the EURO

    He's into currency options a lot which you'd think are a no brainer
    and yet he makes people lose money...
    Stock Gumshoe Forum - Jack Crooks Currency Options
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    There are a lot of surprises waiting for us in the next 12 months.
    Europe is in worse shape than US and this will affect euro.
    Gold may slip under $900 in the next 5~7 months (well...$700 may be a bit overdone, but possible).
    Also, If you think that currency options are no brainer, well...try it one day.
    Do not forget that J.C and others like him are only humans...They are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
    Unfortunately, you cannot make money without losing money...;)
     
  6. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    I didn't mean it to sound like that,
    I was referring to his bet against the AUD at a time when commodities were only going to go 1 way and that's up
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Not to worry Bill.:D
    Sometimes the best drivers manage to hit the only tree growing in the middle of nowhere.
    But it does not mean that they do not know how to drive...:p