Join our investing community

US markets drop and Navra performance

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Redwing, 29th Aug, 2007.

  1. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    476
    Location:
    PERTH..WA
    News that there are now more houses for sale in the US than in the last 16 years and I'm sure a myriad of other factors seem to have hit the US Markets with a 2.10% fall (280 points)

    With all the recent volatility of late I was surprised to see Navra's results as at 27-08-07 at -0.88 (retail) and -0.82 (wholesale) but then again I'm not following it too closely; how have some of the other popular funds fared?
     
  2. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Feb, 2007
    Posts:
    617
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Heres some of the major funds ive been tracking, only from the 4th up to last friday (24th) though...

    I agree it is a bit surprising to see CFS and UBS both beating Navra, i thought it would be beating them at this stage..

    If you want alternative date ranges just let me know and ill put them up
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited by a moderator: 29th Aug, 2007
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Performance for the financial-year-to-date:

    3.63% Platinum Asia
    1.52% NavraInvest US
    0.53% CFS Wholesale Property Securities
    0.11% Platinum International
    -0.64% NavraInvest AUS Wholesale
    -0.78% Platinum Unhedged
    -1.29% CFS Wholesale Global Resources
    -1.72% Platinum International Brands
    -2.75% Platinum European
    -4.42% CFS Wholesale Colliers International Property Securities
    -4.73% CFS Wholesale Geared Share
    -9.24% CFS Wholesale Small Companies Core :eek:
     
  4. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Two reasons:

    1. the bounce back was very strong (surprisingly strong - the sharpest rising market we've had in decades apparently). Navra doesn't tend to do as well as some other funds in that type of market since they would begin selling down while other funds would ride the increase. Increasing cash levels as Navra sells are a drag on performance in a rising market.

    2. we've not fully recovered yet - the Navra fund gets its best returns once we go back above where we were before the correction.

    Don't expect too much too soon :D
     
  5. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Feb, 2007
    Posts:
    617
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Ive added a 2nd graph which highlights your point. Navra was leading until the big increase on the 22nd. It was as far ahead as 0.8%

    CFS 452 share fund really must have a different investment approach, its way down on everything else...
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Depends on the shares it held (some where hammered more than others) and what the fund did during the correction (did they sell down badly performing shares and thus miss out on the bounce ?).
     
  7. Sk3tChY

    Sk3tChY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Aug, 2007
    Posts:
    358
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    So Navra has lost 0.64%, even with the market experiencing the volatility it has lately?

    (I may be reading your post wrong sim, but thats what It looks like)
     
  8. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jan, 2007
    Posts:
    679
    Location:
    Hobart
    is that fund also geared?
     
  9. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Yes - the fund is not immune to market drops ... the shares the fund held dropped in value, thus dropping the unit price.

    To put it in perspective, from closing on the 29th June (6274.9) to the lowest close since - Friday 17th Aug (5671.0), the ASX200 dropped 9.6%

    In comparison, the Navra AUS W/S fund was closed the financial year (estimated ex-distribution unit price) at 1.1222 and bottomed out during the correction at 1.0321 ... an 8.0% drop.

    For the financial-year-to-date (Monday's close), the ASX200 has done 6274.9 to 6185.2 = -1.4%, while the Navra fund has done 1.1222 to 1.1124 = -0.9% (this is retail fund, my figures in the previous post were for the wholesale fund).

    The main thing that works in the fund's favour to limit the size of the fall, is the amount of cash they hold (cash doesn't drop in value when the market drops). But the fund will still fall when the market falls.

    The market has to recover more for the Navra fund to see the really good gains ... the market still has a long way to go before reaching the levels we were at back at the end of the financial year.
     
  10. Sk3tChY

    Sk3tChY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Aug, 2007
    Posts:
    358
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    I thought the Navra fund basically worked on the concept of buying whilst shares are at a low, and selling while they're at a good price, whilst using DCT.

    With the volatility the way it has been lately with the market jumping and dropping 100-200pts every couple of days, I thought they'd have taken advantage, buying things like MBL etc, whilst at a good price and selling days later when they had made like $5-$9.

    But im not gonna question you Sim, you know alot more than I do, thats just my understanding, but of course, things would be much more complicated then that i'd imagine heh.
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Correct on both counts :D

    The reason I keep going on about it is that many people new to the fund have this misconception that it won't ever go down in value, or that it will always produce great returns.

    I just want to set the expectations right and make sure people understand how the fund is going to behave (at least in broad terms). I must say that it is nice to have a fund which does largely behave as expected - unlike some of my other funds recently :(

    The trick with Navra is to be able to separate the macro-level "marketing spin" about how the fund works and the way it generates returns ... from the micro level detail about what it will do on a day-by-day or week-by-week basis. Many people new to the fund hear the macro level descriptions, and then get concerned when the micro-level behaviour doesn't exactly match that.

    I'm just here to set the record straight on the micro level stuff and to help people understand what is going on ... only because I hate to see people get upset over a misunderstanding.

    One of the interesting things about Steve Navra is that he is both technically brilliant from a share trading perspective (that is his background afterall - and he personally developed the NavTrade system), while also being a great marketer - selling the big picture vision. That's a pretty rare combination in my experience ... usually the marketers can't drill down into the detail when you need them to - and usually the technicians aren't that good at explaining (or selling!) the high level concepts.

    ... but I think we are dragging this thread off topic!! (sorry!)

    (Edit - I split these posts off into a new thread)
     
  12. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Feb, 2007
    Posts:
    617
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    With all respect, the closing price was only 100 points short of 28 June so its not that much though with a 9% swing in between... (after today there will be a long way though)

    While we are talking small %s, it should be noted that in the time sim is talking about, Narva has out performed the market by 35.7% [(-1.4)+ (-0.9)/(-1.4)], a pretty substaintial figure
     
  13. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    ... yup, the dates I chose were quite arbitrary - it was just convenient to use the financial-year-to-date figures, since that is what people generally see from the Navra website.
     
  14. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Feb, 2007
    Posts:
    617
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    I thought id make a graph of how Narva and UBS have gone against the benchmark. Its the difference between the % made on the index and the fund. Basically shows for the whole of August. Narva has been beating the market, and again deals with sims point that it doesnt do well with the larger increases like late last week (may give an indication of how much cash their holding)

    As you can tell im pretty bored at work...
     

    Attached Files:

  15. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    863
    Sim, your consistent explanation of the detail is a great asset to everyone here with a lesser understanding of the machinations (me included, or especially :) ). You provide a wealth of info that helps put everything in perspective.

    I tend to only lurk these days as a few moments of over-exuberance and annoyance at lack of postings on here from Steve himself, caused my comments to be taken as criticism of NI, which wasn't my intention. NI and particularly Steve's passion and ability to explain the "how" was a saviour for me, coupled with the explanations from people like yourself and MWhyte about the "why", I just get more and more comfortable with the decisions we are making as we continue our journey.

    Keep up the * great * work.

    Cheers
    Carl

    EDIT PS. not happy we had no cash for the $1.03x opportunity recently :( - i had vowed if it hit $1.04 thunderbirds were go, but the thunderbirds had spent all their dough :p
     
  16. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Please don't just lurk - I was thinking only the other day that we hadn't heard from you for a while. We miss you!

    Steve doesn't post here anymore - so there's no problem there :D

    How's the house you built going? Everything finished now or still stuff to do ?
     
  17. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    863
    I knew he didn't post here :) - just wanted to avoid saying anything else that might be viewed anti-Navra when I am quite the opposite :p

    The 'farm' is going great (substantially better now some of that rain arrived to grow that lawn i was being badgered about) - hoping there is some equity freed up to go investing again (Poor Rolf L ;-) )

    Will try to post if I have anything useful to add

    Cheers
    C