Join our investing community

Trading US not default and SKorea for gold

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 3rd Aug, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    It is good development for old economy that is US will not be defaulted and Southern Korea bought gold first time since 1998! How much did it bought? Not too much but just 25mT gold! 25 is not big number, isn't it? $10 more in price is not exciting matter also?

    The drama about US debt default definitely has being scared some nations, organization, and people around world I do feel even not sure since I really could not figure out why they fear. No worry mate! We have to move forward without matter US default or not? Someone think so and some not! That is headaches for people. Why don't get a black and white line?

    I still could not get the sense about the rationality of the fact that DOW could move up from the bottom so easily and XAO just could struggle for nowhere to go. It seems if you are big you could burnt down your house and only the little boys should take the damage from the house burning down. Could the drama about the default change the mind of the people around the world?

    What make me sick is Aussie gave up a wrong market theme, the decoupling, but now take another sick theme that US default all would be in default! Yes. Market is always right in short time. But I just could not figure out it would be true for long enough time. We should not fight against anyone but get the position and time to service the Aussie desperate market warriors.

    I do feel Aussie have burnt too much. Aussie is ready for US default before the debt ceiling problem solved in US congress this time. Why? The wall of worries are so high and so fearful now.

    Just thought and get some points

    Don't take any thought as conclusion for your market decision please. If you really want to make decision, you need a proper process such as get the data from trustful sources, do the analysis intelligently(as the intelligence center for war even in very small scale), get all of possible scenarios on the paper, using several different ways to get a trustful probability for each of the scenarios, and pick up the most probable one in the time frame you plan to hold, and buy, hold, or sell!

    1. the sky would be less worried by people around the world at least for the day when people know US would not be defaulted.
    2. US would still be the leader of the global economies but its debt load is too high and make people could not blindly assume its currency is safety heaven.
    3. as small stock market business owners, you could not diversify into different asset sector for your asset safety but nations could not mull how to protect their assets and people.
    4. S Korea bought gold shows the concern of safety for any nation to bet on US treasury.
    5. If no US treasure or dollar could let you feel safety what could make the policy makers feel so? No too many!

    • Euro is trapped in debt crises;
    • Japan could not be depended on;
    • All big nations has the troubles for their AAA credibility.
    • Small AAA nations as Australia never could go its own way in the global economies.

    Why S Korea bought after gold up for a decade?

    People have been reluctant to put their asset into gold since 1998 since too many people, born or grew in the new age, wonder what gold could be useful. It could not eat and has little real value to make product. Could you eat paper money directly? The value storage is to exchange what you need. It is the value of gold formed by human history.

    If no worry for paper money, gold is the waste asset and stay in the vault with heavy guarding which cost the money! It is not economical just spending the money. You could not argue that. The problem is you could not spend all as a nation for what you produce. The bum could do so and no any responsible people could do so. So where should you store what you have? No guard at all? You are idiotic!

    A great boom or bear would move the policy makers with some triggered thresholds. A straw could crash a camel, someone said. Could you figure out the reasons?

    Could not say S Korea buying could mean the Great Gold Ultimate Bubble would be in sight soon but it could lead to it. So more straw would on the scale for the threshold to shoot gold up. Could the straws on the camel be more and more to the crash the camel? Don't know but if it happens I would not surprised!

    Dot gold and last straw to crush the camel

    No one worries about the strong camel usually until one more straw crush it down!

    Could all like dot gold someday? Could be possible even not sure. Who could be sure US would be in risk to default a few months ago! Something if happen will happen. The control system in the market is open and so complicated. A straw or which straw could change the horizon of the gold?

    Anyway gold is marked at $1641 now. Just dream what if gold to be $2,000, $2,500, $3,000, or $5,000! Could we bet on some dirty-cheap gold hopeful with some affordable money? What if too many people want to put some affordable money? What if some moms and dads get some surprised return since they put the money into gold hopeful when most of people didn't care about gold?

    Greed and fear would play the parts when the conditions are ready! We are human and something would repeat due to our nature around us even the pattern could be look similar but timing spreading is quite different. Could you trade for the similar patterns at the right time? Few could do since 80/20 rules! 20% early bird and lucky bird would take 80% profit always in the stock market!

    I tend to be early bird to buy and late bird to escape. I should change myself to be early bird to buy and sell to enjoy the strength of camel and escape crush down with it, shouldn't I? Could we enjoy the bubble forming but not get the pains from bubble deflation?
    Last edited by a moderator: 3rd Aug, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    gold up further: good or bad to you?

    It doesn't matter you worry or fear, it could be good or bad to you not because it goes up or down but your position in the market.

    Seriously saying I hope gold could be $2500 tomorrow since I have a few gold dirty-cheap fishes in hand for quite long time. OK, they were dreadful at $250 gold price; $500 the same; $1000 the same; $1500 the same; how about $2000, $2500, $3000, or $5000? Gold price only could be stopped at some great dramas in the global economies!

    The problems have been accumulated for decades, which started to play the parts in IT bust, and extended to GFC and the debt crises need to reckon. This reckon need some medias as reference to measure. S Franc is safe but could not be used in global scale. US dollar is been inquired for its credibility. All of AAA currencies are small ones too. Gold is the natural candidate if US dollar in trouble! It is the fact without matter you agree or not!

    So if gold up to some price, anyone has a bit of gold would fee hot. How hot my gold fishes? Don't know but I would sell them if someday all of people here talk about gold! Why? It is because I want to service anyone in the market. If everyone wants I would sell for your happiness!

    Why don't you hold for your own happiness? I could not since my job is to give best service for the warriors in the market! I want market is my workshop or office. Could we be ignorant, arrogant, euphoric to hold all of benefit, and play the music for our euphoric feeling in the offices? I never did so even I could dance euphorically in the Christmas parties with my bosses. If I want to be happy I should have a holiday and lock my door in the market! You could not buy the happiness to provide shirt-losing business!

    Job is job and business is business, right? No in the market most of us don't behave as professionals for profit. You have to pay for your happiness and enjoyment!


    The people in the market are fearful again but much less than in the ruins of GFC. GFC had a series of shocking events but now the second GFC needs the shocking events to start. The wall of worries without shocking events are good things, which could clear up the market naturally! Once fundamental accumulates enough momentum the people of the market will start climb the wall.

    Do you know if we could be shocked in the slope to the hell? I don't know but it is not too bad when the people worries the gold goes up! When the people worry about the sky, they tend to burn all on fire. In GFC, gold went down too. Of course this time is different because the dramas of US default force the rich or nations think how to diversify their assets into some safe heaven. However you could not find too many place, which let you feel safe!


    Gold price is making higher high. Gold producers has been sold in discount. The above chart is the Barrons GoldMiningIndex. Gold Stocks basically consolidated from about 1937 to 1961. The breakout really began in 1964. The consolidation ranged from about 17 to 50. The breakout took the market from 50 to about 220 and in only four years.

    Today we are on the cusp of a similar breakout. The market made a marginal high in 2008 and another marginal high earlier this year. A sustained move to new highs will qualify as a major multi-decade breakout. We tend to predict the future for accuracy but we actually need to be roughly right rather than absolutely wrong.

    The question is how we trust this hopeful breakout. We at best could say it is highly probable.
    If debt crises could not be stopped but let them worry more, gold price would be up and could be up decisively in surprise. At a point, when gold price goes up to, the people would change their mind in a few days! Did have experience in IT boom? It had been prepared for nearly 2 decades and gave the brightest light in a few months. Gold shooting up in 1980 were the results of about 2 decade preparation too.

    GFC in my view was the extension of IT bust. The debt crisis is the extension of the GFC. Overdone has to be reckoned in the way of the system crushing down or long term pains and turbulence in the way. Which way we choose? I prefer to choose the pains and turbulence in long time. I am really scared by the system falling down. The cost is huge to anyone in the falling.

    So gold up should be a long way and at some point it shoots up to end this new age of gold bull. It would reward early birds and beat the late mom and dad into the hell. But it is a visionary view and should not be used to play for our bottom line goals. However it is good to prepare for this shooting up and warned for the shocking events ahead.

    What if no gold shooting up at all? That is you have to worry about if you want to bet on gold now or later! Actually you have to think how to protect you at any time without matter what you feel or think about!
    Last edited by a moderator: 5th Aug, 2011