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VGE,STW or IVV

Discussion in 'Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)' started by RS Gumby, 10th Aug, 2018.

  1. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    Hi Investors

    I have some exposure in ETFs ( VGS, VAS,VAE,VHY ), I’m looking at VGE, STW or IVV for my next purchase

    What would be your general advice on these?

    Also, is now the time to get in or do you think i should wait till the market cools?


    BEAR and BBOZ have been suggested to me as a play for when the market cools – do you have an opinion on this?


    I have a small exposure to ALI, BHP and RMD – which would you keep and which would you sell?


    Cheers
     
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  2. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    STW is very similar to VAS, don't see a purpose for both in a portfolio.

    I've been reading about people waiting for the cooling to occur for the last 5 years, for the last 5 years it has been obvious to quite a few people that the crash is just around the corner, surely a year or less!

    The Bull market has gone on for a long time (longest since certain % correction I believe).
    GFC type crashes don't happen very often.

    I don't know what's going to happen so I make my decisions around not knowing.

    Markets tend to have an upwards trajectory. I don't believe anyone can accurately predict the types of events required to make them beneficial. They have high ongoing costs so they aren't long term holds. If there was a vomit emoji I would have just gone with that, my 2 Cents.
     
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  3. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    Thanks Hodor
    I'm keen on VGE and may increase my VAS holding

    Any thoughts on the shares I'm thinking of unloading?
     
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  4. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    ALI ( i do not hold ) i would suggest is a capable alternative for internationally flavoured ETFs )

    so it i held ALI ( and i don't ) is there a compelling reason to to an international ETF
    ( and yes quarterly divs that some ETFs pay might be that compelling reason for you )

    BHP is a core holding for me ( but i was buying it when it was much cheaper )

    i bought BHP for it's survivability if BHP was to fail the Australian economy would be in a very dark place BHP ( in theory ) should have several uninspiring years to come until a new mining boom

    if you are thinking of offloading at ( say ) $35 and hoping to buy back in at $20 ( or less ) that might be a brave play but not completely impossible

    RMD i do not hold or follow , so have no opinion on them ( or the sleep sector )

    i hold BEAR and BBOZ ( and BBUS ) as a preemptive to the market cooling if you think you can buy as the downtrend begins and sell on the way down you are more ambitious than me .. but good luck if you try .

    now about STW ( and similar products ) would you be better off looking at VLC or ILC going for the big end of town OR something like EX20 looking for extra growth in the midcaps ( remember what suits YOU is the correct strategy )

    ( i am looking to survive the next crash ... not invest looking forward 30 plus years )

    there should be a dip soon ( maybe as little as 5% ) which might suit you for VAS ( increases )

    but the larger world economy ??? when is the world going to reduce the outstanding debt ???

    and will the global economy dip first ?
     
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  5. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    *** I've been reading about people waiting for the cooling to occur for the last 5 years, for the last 5 years it has been obvious to quite a few people that the crash is just around the corner, surely a year or less!

    The Bull market has gone on for a long time (longest since certain % correction I believe).
    GFC type crashes don't happen very often.

    I don't know what's going to happen so I make my decisions around not knowing. ***

    i have been waiting for 6 years but i also realized i had to have skin in the game ( to generate asset growth )

    was investing cautiously in the last 6 years a blessing or a curse .. i guess time will tell
     
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  6. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    Thanks Twisted
    I'll have a look at VLC & ILC
    ALI I first bought at $2, trading at $1.90 and has not got near $2 so I might cash it in shortly.
    Only reason for looking at offloading BHP was because of decent exposure to the stock in my ETFs, was thinking of unloading at $35.
    I'm probably looking to hold for another 10 years or so ( i'll be retired by then)
     
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  7. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    i imagined you were a little younger or are you hoping to retire early ??

    Age Pension - Age rules - Australian Government Department of Human Services

    at a rough guess age pension will be 70 ( or more ) by 2028

    i am currently on a disability pension which SHOULD let me transition to an aged pension IF my health improves .( no certain thing )

    i was planning to retire in 2020 but the disability pension will probably still apply until at least 2022

    LICs ( like ALI ) often trade at a discount to net tangible assets but to ME divs are more important if the LIC can spit out reliable divs i worry less about the share price ( and may even buy extra if the SP dips a fair bit

    cheers
     
  8. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    No real thoughts on them. Do you value simplicity? Will they be large enough holdings to have any material effect on your portfolio?

    They will either under perform the index or out outperform. Don't know which.
     
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  9. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    I'm ONLY!!!!!! 55
    Looking at really cutting back work hours in 5 to 6 years if I get my portfolio in order.
    That's why I'm asking a lot of questions, I want to set my ETF/Share portfolio up now
     
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  10. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    RS Gumby ,

    THEN GET A FULL HEALTH CHECK .. first

    i was just over 60 when i decided to see a doctor again ( after 20 plus years of avoiding them )

    the doctor wasn't happy after checking basics ,( blood pressure , lung function and some basic blood tests ) so pointed me at Centre-link to ask for sickness benefits July 2016 .( to cut the costs of future tests ) by November 2016 Centre-link asked for a medical report , late December Centre-link sent me to an independent consultant , the consultant just coughed ( choked ) tested the blood pressure read so newer reports and shook my hand and sent me on my way ..

    the first week of January ( Wednesday ) i looked in the bank account and saw it was much fatter ..
    Centre-link put me on a disability pension ( not the hoped sickness benefits ) and back dated it to July 2016

    so now i have a GP( and surgeon ) , Cardiologist and a Hematologist .. and so far i have had two melanomas removed and a stent implanted and still only 4 body parts checked ( skin , blood , heart and lungs ) there is so much more to explore .

    but this is so much better at full Medicare discounts ( and PBS )

    i had planned to retire at the beginning of 2020 ( guess who is happy they rushed setting up the portfolio ... NOW .) still the disability pension is looking solid until 2022 when there might be another review , thing could be worse .

    one question comes to mind are you happy with the ETF ( div. yields ) ?

    i bought my ETFs as mini insurance policies against bad stock selections but expect LICs and direct shares to provide most of the div. income .

    cheers
     
  11. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    Geez I hope you're on the road to recovery

    I had 13 ops for facial skin cancers but melanomas' are a bugger - glad to hear you've dodged those.
    Funnily enough I nearly died on the operating table for one of them - they gave me the wrong drug, luckily I've got an enlarged heart that kept me going
    Puts a different perspective on life - most people don't understand

    I'm not into ETFs for the Div Yield as much as I want steady price growth and I like DRP.
    I only owe money on a couple of investment properties - no other debt - but bugger all in the bank too!
    Salary sacrificing to build our Supers up. We're not extravagant spenders and have no kids
    While I'm working I'm determined to build wealth whilst still enjoying life.

    Cheers
     
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  12. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    My health is pretty good
    I'm a Vegan who runs marathons - doesn't preclude me from dropping dead any time though!!!!
     
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  13. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    LOL
    i even looked in good health going into the MRI .... and joking with the staff , i had been much sicker than this ( and annoying the crap out of obviously ill waiting patients )

    ... less than 10 mins later the registrar had made and confirmed the appointment with the cardiologist ( 8 am the next morning ) and was taking me for a private talk starting with ... do you know what an aneurysm is ???

    quickly followed by ...here are some new pills they get a lot of bad press BUT ( NOT a script 2 months supply in my hand )

    fast forward two weeks and i was having an angiogram to discover no aneurysm but a lesion ( and some extra complications ) instead , the cardiologist took lots of video pulled out the probe ( instead of placing the stent ) and referred me to his boss the Professor ..

    this all sounds very exciting but i was losing LVEF ( left ventricle ejection factor ) at the rate of 5% a month ... by the start of December that had dipped below 20% below 15% at the start of 2017 BUT i was still walking and could climb stairs 3 at a time ( from a standing start ) ( even the week before the stent in February )

    and yes i was still mobile but on the verge of creating a lot of paperwork ( at any time )( in fact only one ambulance ride in my life ..from an accident in high school )

    even now at the best case scenario i need to be within 20 mins drive of a major hospital ( we have 4 in the Brisbane area that are suitable ) at the worst case the paras will probably too late ( assuming arrival in 5 minutes )

    the funny part is they gave me a 'hail Mary' , some Nitrolingual spray with the EXPLICIT instructions of ringing the paramedics FIRST , using the Nitro guarantees i will need immediate hospital treatment which might be a better outcome than just waiting for the paramedics to see if they can do something on arrival

    BTW my little problem is called The Widow-maker

    Widowmaker Heart Attack Explained by Cardiologist • MyHeart

    except i has some extra complications and then followed by a stent recall because my version actually increases the risk of adverse outcomes ( for the next 3 years with the major danger period in 2020 )

    now one problem is ... a don't have a ( future ) widow and forgot to have a mid-life crisis

    so am currently looking for a cutie who looks good in black ( talk about extra pressure )

    so despite having 'chronic heart failure ' the only warning signs i have had are the looks on the medical staff faces when they read the test results .

    *** I'm not into ETFs for the Div Yield as much as I want steady price growth and I like DRP.***

    sorry but in the next 5 years i do NOT see steady unit price growth in ETFs , i see reduced div. yields in the underlying shares dragging drop the share prices on high PE valuations

    i see a big dip somewhere in the middle and a POSSIBLE near full recovery to roughly current prices ( which might make the DRP work better smaller divs but much cheaper units added ) so most of the growth courtesy of the DRP .

    but get those health checks early ( unsubsidized medical bills can be a wealth killer .. without PBS my meds are nearly $1000 a month , then there are things like echo-cardiograms specialist visits , blood tests etc. etc )
     
  14. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    *** Geez I hope you're on the road to recovery ***

    *** Heart Failure with reduced ejection fraction (HF) is a serious, long-term condition that doesn't go away and currently has no cure. ***

    *** Having HF means you're always at risk
    People with HF have a greater risk of death, with about half dying within 5 years of diagnosis. Risk of hospitalization also increases, as heart failure is the leading cause of hospitalization in those over 65 years of age. ***

    and my particular stent increases that risk yet again ( above rival stents )

    the original guess was made at start of November 2016 ( and proved to be incorrect with just one MRI )
    Cardiomyopathy ( and a 50% chance on serviving 10 years )

    Cardiomyopathy - Wikipedia


    ( the last echo-cardiogram suggests my LVEF has IMPROVED to just over 30% AFTER the stent and pills ...... 40% or less means Entresto is specially authorized by the PBS and TGA to be prescribed .. i need special permission to use this . )

    they will reassess ( officially , that is the hospital that did the stent ) in 2022 and Center-link after that

    meanwhile my blood tests are confusing .. the meds have some known side-effects that include organ failure especially liver and kidneys but can be nasty elsewhere , a major risk is blood clots and internal bleeding and being a industrial strength blood thinners that can be messy , if i have too many problems they can put me on Warfarin ( rat poison ) as a step down for enhanced safety


    Warfarin - Wikipedia

    the medicos can up the Entresto ( a big debate on that currently ) ( that would be the maximum dose on that as well )


    A breakthrough HF treatment | ENTRESTO (sacubitril/valsartan)

    after that they are out of better options ( that don't involve surgery of some type )

    on the upside is i get to meet heaps of new people .. mostly medical staff , but heck you have to meet them somewhere .
     
  15. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    You're a brave bugger
    Can you travel?
    You'd have to be wrapped up in cotton wool or do you go , Bugger it I'm gunna do what I want.

    So I can see your passion for investing and helping others like me!
    Do you have any other interests?
     
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  16. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    interests ... computers and music/guitars and such ... but they are at home and home is too far away from the nearest suitable hospital ( within 20 mins if the expected event or 5 mins if things go terribly wrong )

    i have to tell someone if i walk to the shops alone ( about 100 metres away ) and carry my phone and wallet with medical details and am limited on what i can carry back ( about 10% of what i would crry 10 years ago from a shopping trip .


    luckily i saw some similar cases when i was a teen , and learned a important lesson

    whatever you do DON'T PANIC ( which is completely against human nature )

    i don't mind helping others investing i am learning in parallel ( some folks ask questions i hadn't even thought about , so i am learning as well )

    i only decided to chase this investment thing in 2010 when i ( unexpectedly ) inherited two estates

    investing ( and being careful with the cash ) was liable to ruin my chances of an aged pension but the other choice was to buy a very nice Ferrari and drive like Sammy Haggar



    and probably have the best week of my life

    BTW that 'bravery ' has a whole different name if i have some wheels and more than 40 horsepower to play with ... LOL

    and therefore i am not allowed to even have a mobility scooter :- ((

    i have asked about a rollator though ( that is still being debated )
     
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  17. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    I too love music - have a SONOS system right through the house

    Liked Sammy in Van Halen
    My hero was Jimi Hendrix growing up

    Yeah I've thought about not getting a pension because of my investments but I'd rather be in a great position going forward as eligibility for the pension changes with every Government.

    My brother in law is going to deposit a large wad of cash into a safe so he can qualify - not such a bad idea but don't think I could sleep at night

    I know you're not heavily into ETFs but can you recommend one which is US based?
    I already have VGS but would like another in this region

    Cheers
     
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  18. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    iShares is about to convert some of their ETFs to Australian domiliced so you can get them without extra tax considerations etc. You mentioned IVV and that is one of them, their small and mid cap US ETFs are coming across too
     
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  19. RS Gumby

    RS Gumby Member

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    Thanks Hodor
    I'll keep an eye them
    Any tickle your fancy?
     
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  20. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    was an Alice Cooper and Led Zeppelin fan but also had a lot of time for Carlos Santana

    the upside of my current health was the very quick decision to give me a disability pension which chopped a huge amount of the medical bills , an old age pension would make me more liable for some bills .( and might have stricter financial restrictions )

    US ETFs ???

    i really don't like the US as a major investment target

    think of the US as CBA ( the Aussie Bank ) yes it has some headwinds and looks to be so big it is bullet-proof .. BUT where can it sensibly grow ??

    internationally i am watching ( South ) Korea should unification take place ( possible but not guaranteed ) this could be a monster growth engine think Germany after the Soviet collapse .

    and South Korea could still find acceptable growth without the reunion .

    also hard to understand ( yet ) is India ( and hard to invest in ) and don't forget Vietnam i see a lot of ambition in the Vietnamese international students that learn here .

    for US exposure i am still tempted to buy something like TGG ( a LIC ) and endure the extra fees in exchange for crafty stock selection ( there are a few other LICs but i prefer to avoid the big name shares even icons like GE are crumbling and where will the index be if Tesla goes private )

    if you invest in a place of little growth you may as well be buying gold or silver ( coins and bars not the paper stuff ) ( your brother might consider that as well a safe place on the property cuts out a lot of costs )
     
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