Join our investing community

What Now?

Discussion in 'The Economy' started by Chris C, 1st Nov, 2011.

  1. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Apr, 2008
    Posts:
    1,327
    Location:
    Brisbane, QLD
    Italian, Spanish Bonds Fall on Bailout Concern - Bloomberg

    So if all the discussing and bailout fund organising isn't preventing Italian and Spanish bonds from falling - then their European game plan might not have kicked the can as far down the road as they might have hoped.

    There seems to be a lot of negative indicators still flagging trouble around the corner...

    Will the market kick the can back at Western governments before the year is out?
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Cheers for the raising Sun!

    ...
    There will be more time for red lights until the trains leave away...

    It is always like that and all of us feel similar until the trains leave away, which makes the people on board cheerful and the people on the station painful.

    It is not easy to pickup the rock bottom and also not easy for anyone not to worry no train to leave away. But if the darkest time passed by, the light would be brighter and brighter. Yes could we say the darkest time has passed by? I do feel the darkest time gone and I would hold my BKP and all of my fishes. I don't believe the cloud would bury the raising Sun.

    Relief rally? If no hope or relief in the ruins we would have no future. Randomness could bury the signals this time but in months or years it is impossible. Cheers for the raising Sun if you have cash or cash inflow! What now? If we could not sell at the peak, we just have one option to choose: waiting patiently and cheer for the relief and hope.

    [​IMG]

    How could you be sure we could run under rising Sun again in the market? It is not sure too. Nothing is sure in the market but if the trains leave away without you, it is sure you would feel upset or if the trains derail into hell, you would feel happy in the station.

    How could you wait patiently? Get a spade for your cash and cash inflow! Get to know the fear has been pushed down a lot. Don't hope fear would be gone completely very soon. No one really know what the warriors would feel collectively in days. However pessimism and fear of the market as a whole is good since most of warriors have to be wrong and lose! No systems could help a warrior who just know jump over fence in light speed when signals could be random noises and look-like noises are the future signals.

    Some look foolish but act intelligently. Some look cleverly but act foolishly. It is the time you can look cleverly but act foolish. For months between Nov 2008 - Mach 2009, too many clever warriors threw their towers at the time they should not in retrospective.

    We still need some lucks and guts.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 1st Nov, 2011
  3. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Chris

    Personaly I don't see them willing to go far enough to solve the problem.
    Without structural changes individual Eurozone members are left to the mercy of the markets. The Greeks have been saying this all along but none listens.

    Unfortunately the monetary union is now a French/German union and they do as they like. They've been experimenting for 2 years but they are no longer able to kick the can further down the road as they have been doing until now.

    It is now obvious that the medicine they prescribed for Greece isn't working and if they continue giving it, the patient will die.
    Is that what they want and if so what are they going to do with the other profligate countries?
     
  4. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Apr, 2008
    Posts:
    1,327
    Location:
    Brisbane, QLD
    The medicine was always going to be a combination of austerity and debt forgiveness - Greece was never going to be able to pay the money back, but given that it is in no one's interest for them to leave the EU either they needed to ensure that the Greeks at least cleaned up their act before they were bailed out.

    You can't have forgiveness without austerity - otherwise you'd create too much moral hazard, especially in the EU where there are a number of other countries who are on the brink of opting for bailouts rather than doing that hard yard and honouring their debts.
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Greece default = GFCII?

    Market as a whole believes if Greece defaults the world would just have one option: GFCII. However is it necessary Greece default would ensure PIIS to default and EU disintegration? Market seems believe so.

    Who could see Greece would play the card, referendum, just a few days ago? It is important for us to know what is going on but the history is preparing different scenarios. What are the different scenarios?

    EU at last is not a independent nation. Greece PM said the democracy was more important than the market. He gambled that Greece people would choose austerity and EU. However how could he be sure crowd will?

    Why were there communism revolution? It was not just because rich becomes richer but some would use the disappointment of the crowd for their political purpose. If crowd is in deep disappointment it would prefer to destroy all.

    EU and the world should prepare Greece to say No for bailing out and Austerity. All of the world don't really worry about Greece but PIIS and EU default and the crash of the global financial system.

    It is bad for market to see the uncertainties. But the world also gets another two months to find a way to be sure the financial system is safe. All of XAO, EU, US, China, and others have been in this uncertainties for too long.

    Seriously if Greece default could not destroy the global financial system, it is better to let it go its own way. Now a bad egg spoil all of the foods on every market table. Could G20 work together to throw away this bad egg and make the food on each table acceptable if not make them delicious.

    1 billion dollars in EU's vault. IMF could put more in stake. China could put more if the prospective could be sure. Could all of these money work together to let Greece out of EU? Could the policy makers be wise enough to get this way?

    If Greece doesn't care about itself who could save them? Democracy is more important than market appetite? Could we accept the results of communism revolution and let it govern the world?

    Market would react drastically at very beginning if Greece chooses to default but it would make everything is certain. Life needs to be going on. Market would recover in time. Sky would be there.

    Could you survive the rock bottom crash? What's on is important but what you do is critical. I sold PPX at $0.09 for about $9000 to be sure I could have more cash for a year expenses to hold my other shares. I start to look for a spade seriously in case Greece just wants to dig up for its grave.

    If tsunami would flood the world, no one could stop it. Too many poor and dreadful market warriors just fail to understand it.

    By the way, DOW just swings back, up more than 200 points. Who could predict it before that? It seems a lot of system signals tell we don't have hopes. Could we say so with 100% sureness? Too easy to get wrong conclusion from what is going on! All of our failure start our confidences on our guesses.

    A wing flap in EU could cause storms in US and Australia. The storm worry all and then all of them forget another wing flap could stop storm or rising Sun over head. Who could see very clearly ahead in the future? I just could not. Could you?

    7 billions of people is in this world. Rich becomes richer at some extend is good and if it extends too much for revolution no one would be rich. Crowd usually is coward and if rich doesn't push too far and let the middle classes feel hopeless we should have hopes. Why do Aussies choose Labor before GFCI? Bad has to go into extreme and then good have the chances.

    Aussies are lucky since there are 7 billions of people who want to get the resources. I am just surprised to find there are too many jobs which no one wants to take. Me? I also don't take any crap job too unless I have to. A cleaner now could get $25 per hour. It means $50,000 per year if anyone would like to work for 40 hours per week. How a equal society it is! But no one really is happy!

    Just do nothing to spend the money? It is new problem that Marx could not image. We have be in a worker's heaven but we get more people cry for the miserable life. These spoiled boys and girls make hopelessness. Could everyone enjoy to be Queens who just visited Perth? Equality is always relative not absolute matter.

    Just could not image how stupid the men and women could be! We are all different since where and when we were born! Could you change all? Something you can control but some you just could not change a bit! Don't fight against what you could not change.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 3rd Nov, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Greece: take it or leave it

    Market naturally is speculative and sets its tone for what just happen or will happen in short term. However businesses and economies have to evaluate self and environment to get judgement and decision or resolution for what they should do toward its direct and indirect goals.

    Politicians in Greece are under huge pressure and have decided to gamble Greece would choose EU so that they could be saved in the ruins. However it is just as in a war you can try to get support from your warriors before getting into valley of death but in that the commanders have to make their minds and play the leadership. It means failure of leadership without matter what cause this failure.

    EU leaders feel very frustrated and have got their minds as I do. They are telling Greece to take it or leave it what EU could give. Sometimes some people just don't do their jobs. EU is not a traditional nation politically. We all could say EU has fatal fault in system but it is what it is now. So there should be some bottom line for Greece and EU.

    Now Greece plays the card, referendum. Its politicians doing implies that that is all we could do now, we want to see what warriors would like to choose, we believe warriors could see the full picture and they would choose the conscious and wise option to stay in EU.

    No one could trust the crowd in Greece without leadership. So EU leaders logically have to tell Greece: Take it or leave it.

    Don't depend on Greece to make your mind in the market. I am happy to know EU leaders know Greece is not important anymore after it started to play the card, referendum, but how to stabilize EU and the global financial system. It is a very good news among the crying and bad news in the market.

    Anyone if choose to commit suicide, would die even all of others have to go forward.
     
  7. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Apr, 2008
    Posts:
    1,327
    Location:
    Brisbane, QLD
    Well it looks like **** just got real for Italian bond holders as well... any word on when they will lift the ban on shorting European banks?

    :D
     
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    The storm would check the strength of rock bottom set at beginning of August. The bond yield in Italy shoots up again but how long it would last?

    It is too early to say bank would run in Europe. If it starts, anyone in the market would suffer the losses in paper or real money. It is too late to run away if you are still in the market. It is not too bad to buy some if you have enough cash reserve.

    It is not a bad option to do nothing and stay in your corner to sharpen your knife or spade for your defensive line happily. No worry matter if no sky falls down. Be alerted if you feel cold as the market crowd.

    It is a contrition war for market warriors and if we don't want to be consumed we need to let these warriors to hit each other in this zero sum game for market as a whole. They are too clever to forget the storm since they just struggle in the storm.

    Unfortunately they have struggled too long and any raining could flush them into the hell! If it happens don't cry for them. It is their fate. They enjoy to struggle in the eye of tsunami of the current EU debt crisis, Greece or Italy. When they suffer it startles all of people standing by.

    The bubbles would be gone and gems would thrown away. Who care what it is? All are predicted to be gone in Tsunami, which is understandable. All are busy to read the news about the remote Tsunami and busy to predict all would be gone based on the news.

    People are in bipolar disorder and insane.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Nov, 2011
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    Who knows, who cares...
    Council on Foreign Relations

    They also should ban selling stocks which holders are willing to sell for whatever reason - hahahahaaa... :p
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    It is not about smoking but the spreading of fire!

    When I worked as an educated youth in a remote village beside a huge mountain, every spring wild fire burnt something down. When I first smelled, saw, and fought against fire, I was very scared. Unfortunately some of my EY mates run and fell down in the fire...

    Experiences told me in the wild fire time, you have to try all to cool you down and cut yourself from the fire as quick as you can and don't worry what left behind. You have to check again and again to be sure your last defensive line never could be broken by the fire. Nothing is complicated but cut off all the trees and flammable matters around you as wide as possible. Is it simple? But not easy and anyone fail to do so did joke his life.

    We all want big money and win always along the way. In reality there are a lot of things you could control and could not control. No one could control wild fire to start. All of us want to extinguish it as we can but sometimes no one can do anything for it. It is not your fault as human but God's one. However if you could not setup your final defensive line in the case you couldn't run away before fire hit your houses, it is your fault and fatal.

    Could the fire in EU spread to everywhere? Don't tell me you know. There are fire fighters there. They could be successful as we wish. However EU is a strange monster and it tends to do little until too late. They could fail but you could be safe somewhat if you do your job. All of problems are about what you do if the sky, the financial system is safe or not safe.

    I don't see the sky falling down so that I don't want to sell all. I know the sky could fall down so that I don't want to sell all too since it would not matter what you(all) do and you(all) would die financially. The best is to get your last defensive line for the sky is there; do remember the fire scares all and we are in stampede in the smoking.

    No my friends agree I should pick up an Engineer's spade. They thought it is not necessary. I don't agree! We could get into GFCII for months if not years(it is not about sky falling down) and then I have to hold what I have and not to worry cash inflow and reserve.

    Get some strategic thought please and if we could pass through the darkest time, we would be better off. Get yourself ready for the worst and don't give up all for your future. Do you have bonds type assets? Do you have stock type assets? Get the balance between today and tomorrow and everything should be fine. Millionaire or billionaire dreams? Who don't want? But it is not just a matter we could decide by ourselves. You have tried and then it is good enough.

    At this time don't think too much but know yourselves and the environment and find and pick up the best option you believe. Life is good and is really good if you could be survival when all are consumed in the blood!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Nov, 2011