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What will the "X-factor" be in 2006?

Discussion in 'Investing Strategies' started by Nigel Ward, 5th Jan, 2006.

  1. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Every year there seems to be some unexpected event or issue that causes some turmoil in investment markets...the share market in particular.

    Just to name a few we've had:

    a) september 11 attacks in 2001
    b) SARS
    c) bird flu
    d) oil prices
    e) iraq I & II :eek:
    f) asian tsunami

    Whilst uncertainty provides opportunity, trying to extrapolate potential downside risk and how to minimise/manage that risk is an important part of investing. After all, there's no point makin' it if you can't keep it! :rolleyes:

    I'm curious to hear everyone's "idle speculation" about what the big events/issues may be in 2006.

    Cheers
    N
     
  2. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    Take your pick:

    http://www.armageddononline.org/

    Currently I'm torn between Super Volcanoes, Mega Tsunamis or Collapsing Stars..........all of which make Bird Flu sound pretty damn good. :eek:

    Warning: Don't look at this Site if you've already experienced a bad day or are looking forward to living to a ripe old age.

    That reminds me, I'll have to check my Building Insurance to see if it covers Collapsing Stars........you know Insurance Companies......they'll try and get out of the smallest little thing......:p

    :eek:
     
  3. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Unrelated to financial markets - Australia will win the 2006 World Cup in July :D
     
  4. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    So .... what is left....

    g) volcano eruption in ....
    h) giant earthquake in .....
    i ) next Chernobyl somewhere
    j) collapse of European Union
    k) DOW down to 7000 points
    l) etc...
    :confused:
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Alan,
    I should listen to your warning !!!.
    I have got a headache already... :mad:
     
  6. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    An article in the Australian a few days ago made some interesting notes about what is worrying local and international fund managers for the next five years.

    Aussie's are concerned about terrorism (66%), but US and European FM's aren't.

    No fund managers think 2006 will be less volatile than 2005 in the Aussie share market, and almost 78% think 2006 will be more volatile.

    51% of fund managers think climate change is a very important impact on asset performance over the next 5 years. 41.5% think environmental management will have an important impact. But the impact of "globalisation" (whatever that means) is regarded by 61% of managers as significantly influencing asset performance.

    Australia's inflation rate is predicated to be 3% (which is the top of the RBA's target range and would presumably lead to int rate rises to curb inflation). But on the flipside, the fund managers polled thought the Aussie share market would do 9.9%.

    As the 157 firms polled collectively manage a staggeringly big amount of money their views, right or wrong, DO count I think.

    Any comments?

    N.
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Nigel,
    No fund managers think 2006 will be less volatile than 2005 in the Aussie share market, and almost 78% think 2006 will be more volatile.
    Agreed !!.

    51% of fund managers think climate change is a very important impact on asset performance over the next 5 years. 41.5% think environmental management will have an important impact. But the impact of "globalisation" (whatever that means) is regarded by 61% of managers as significantly influencing asset performance.
    I am not sure about climate but globalisation may influence asset performance

    Australia's inflation rate is predicated to be 3% (which is the top of the RBA's target range and would presumably lead to int rate rises to curb inflation). But on the flipside, the fund managers polled thought the Aussie share market would do 9.9%.
    If inflation is predicted to be 3% so interest will stay at the current level ( or + - 0.25 % the most ).
    I am not sure about 9.9% but good luck to fund managers.

    As the 157 firms polled collectively manage a staggeringly big amount of money their views, right or wrong, DO count I think.
    That is what worries me a bit…
    :cool:
    PS - read an interesting article - see link http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency_rooms/eur_news/5592_2006_euro.html
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Jan, 2006
  8. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Nigel,

    I think you missed a few... :D

    The following list extracted from this article

    And these just for the Dow...

    Hold on, its gonna be a bumpy ride...

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Hahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa.
    Good one Michael !!.
    If you read Paul B. Farrell every day you may consider committing a suicide ...
    Oil is the only worry and may hit $ 90 +.
    Apart from this .... Keep $miling.

    PS - For " Black Magic " lovers go to http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=126649
    :cool: