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Where is the residential property market going ?

Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by TryHard, 21st Mar, 2006.

  1. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    Hi all

    Dunno if anyone has had the chance to see Bill Zheng speak, but I always find him pretty motivational and logical.

    His newsletter article this month is :

    Where is the residential property market going ?

    Quite a good read, for simple folk like meself ... I guess with my new-found skerrick of knowledge about "the Navra way", I'll be investing elsewhere while I think the purple line is too far away from the yellow line, then back into property when they look pretty close together (probably about the same time the 'rental reality' figures work again), which is a bit at odds with Bill's philosophy of "buy residential real estate as soon as you humanly can, and hold on to them as long as you’re still well enough to remember money." :)

    Cheers
    Carl
     
  2. TakeStock

    TakeStock Well-Known Member

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    No, I've never heard of him before.

    I got the impression that Bill was saying that the purple and the yellow lines were very close at the moment (at least for Melbourne). He stated, "Right now, Melbourne’s property price is sitting on the yellow line – which means to me a very normal market."

    I would also like to know the source of the data used in his graphs.

    Bill also states, "We will experience the biggest boom in the next 50 years in the residential property market this country has ever seen in the last 50 years." I'm not inclined to give any credence to predictions, particularly regarding booms and busts (which are inevitable given the human traits of greed and fear). There will always be cycles, some larger than others.

    I sometimes think we tend to overcomplicate the foundations of investment. I have a basic premise that has thus far worked well; buy good quality investments (property or shares) for less than I think they are worth and hold onto them for a long time.

    Cheers
     
  3. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    Actually, its probably not one of Bill's better articles to start a discussion on - but I figured might as well post it.

    I got interested in his way of thinking because he's kind of intellectually-motivated with various "Masters of This And That", but into the whole pshychology of successful investing sort of thing. Stuff like those people who fear getting bad tenants are always the ones who do ... :) Probably I'm converted because wife and I were having problems finding good tenants for the farm, went to Bill's seminar, changed our way of thinking about it, and 2 days later had a great tenant ! Possibly a bit of coincidence involved :p

    Its the second such incident ... a fortune teller at a hen's night told my wife a small blonde girl would arrive (we had vowed to be childless, and anyway no blondes in either family, and now our 16 month old blonde maniac rules the roost). So maybe we just need to stop listening to people's power of suggestive persuasion :D

    Hard to explain, but worth a look if you get the chance... I just found Bill's presentations different to the 'norm' :) He's a pretty cool dude - whether his predictions turn out to be accurate I guess only time will tell ...

    Cheers :)
    Carl
     
  4. TakeStock

    TakeStock Well-Known Member

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    Never a bad thing to hear an alternative point of view. As I always say, keep an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out! :rolleyes:

    I'm sure that in this litigious world you could find a lawyer who would sue the fortune teller for the costs of rearing your daughter! :D

    Cheers
     
  5. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Can humbly suggest you need to stop doing something else ;) :eek: :D
     
  6. TakeStock

    TakeStock Well-Known Member

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    Has this got anything to do with his forum name? ;) :rolleyes:

    Incidentally TryHard, in your signature block you note, ""Liquid assets" - hot wife, cute kid and 2 boxers"... What does your underwear have to do with liquid assets??

    Cheers
     
  7. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    Sorry Nigel - you mustn't have heard me - we have a 16 month old daughter - I stopped doing 'something else' quite a while ago ;-)

    If I find the fortune teller, litigation will be the least of her worries ;-)

    There are so many unsavoury jokes come to mind ... we'll leave it at that ...


    :D
     
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Carl,

    This link is a very good fun!
    So, below is my 20 cents.

    " The problem is that you would need a PHD to understand them, and you still don’t get it right ".
    Is Nobel price sufficient enough?

    "So I thought, since I’m not going to get it right using the conventional way of looking at properties, maybe I should try something unconventional ".
    Good idea.....He should use relation between KFC and The Big Mac index.

    "It’s comfortable to know that it doesn’t matter what happens, my prediction is not going to be worse than anyone else’s?"
    Spot on !!

    "The only difference is that some people make a fortune out of properties and others don’t.".
    Correct .... The reason is that those who forecast property prices in Australia for the next 50,100,150 years make fortune writing article about it right now.

    "I simply follow how scientists develop their theories: that is to come up with a hypothesis against certain observation, and test the hypothesis in a similar situation to prove its viability."
    Well....without few Maxwell's equations we are in trouble.

    "E.g. for Melbourne, it will be at least 11-12% on average in the next 50 years, and so on"
    So .... 50 years from now the only city in Australia above sea level will be Melbourne...

    "We will experience the biggest boom in the next 50 years in the residential property market this country has ever seen in the last 50 years."
    So ...this boom will start tomorrow or ...?

    "A good strategy I like is to buy residential real estate as soon as you humanly can,"
    Well .... What a pity, I did not know that before I was born.
    :cool:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Mar, 2006
  9. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    LOL ! Well maybe you're right. Personally after being to some of his seminars I don't think he is any more 'hard sell' than our own Mr Navra - but point taken ;-)