Join our investing community

Will the aussie dollar fall any time soon?

Discussion in 'Money Management' started by Zman, 16th Jan, 2008.

  1. Zman

    Zman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    54
    Location:
    Sydney
    I have a substantial amount in USD that i want to convert to AUD.

    Do you think there will be any move against the aud any time soon?
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    9th Jun, 2005
    Posts:
    4,619
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    With US rates likely to fall and AU rates likely to rise in the near future ... I doubt it. The best you could hope for is a couple of percent like we had recently - I'd be surprised if the AUD dropped below 85c and is more likely to head towards 95c in the short - medium term, but then I'm no currency expert - this is purely speculation on my part.
     
  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    No !!!.
    We may hit parity soon...:p
     
  4. Zman

    Zman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    54
    Location:
    Sydney
    LOL well it went down today to 0.88 :D
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    It will bounce back up :p
     
  6. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    226
    Location:
    NSW
    In regards to the Aussie dollar, if it increases in value against the greenback, does it usually increase in value against the Euro as well or is it two completely different markets.

    Just wondering.
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
  8. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    226
    Location:
    NSW
    Thanx Tropo.

    Although I'm still a little confused :):confused:
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
  10. hiflo

    hiflo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2006
    Posts:
    68
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Just an idea with your US funds.

    If you travel and have need for foreign currency, why don't you open a US dollar account?

    I kept my Japanese yen in cash as I did not have enough to open a yen account and used in the last 5 years to go overseas. I would have gained if I exchanged into Aussie dollar as Japanese yen went down over that time, but I knew that if I kept my Japanese yen, I would be able to take it in cash and exchange yen into local currency. Had I changed it into Aussie dollar, then later on it would mean converting into local currency again and it would mean that I would pay two exchange fees which reduces the value of local currency by 15-20% as each time you buy and sell currency you pay approx 10% as transaction costs. I did this because it was only a few thousand dollars and couldn't open a yen account.
     
  11. Zman

    Zman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    54
    Location:
    Sydney
    I would if i needed it. Thing is i need this money for a deposit.
     
  12. The Stig

    The Stig Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Dec, 2007
    Posts:
    190
    Location:
    Central Coast NSW
    It depends if I send over some more money or not.

    If I send money over there the dollar will go up.

    If I don't send money over there it will go down.

    :D

    PS. I am about to send over some more money
     
  13. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Zman

    I am not a currency expert but from what I read and
    IMHO the US$ is likely to slide further because of the high US debt, and even lower US interest rates, recession fears etc.

    However, the AUD may also fall due to global and local economic uncertainty so if they both go down the AUD will probably range around the 85-90c mark.

    Cheers
     
  14. Brendan

    Brendan Member

    Joined:
    10th Feb, 2008
    Posts:
    19
    Location:
    Melbourne / London
    Interesting.. how does this affect the Pound Sterling do you think?

    I have some cash in London that I need to move to Australia, but the dollar keeps getting stronger.. how long will it be until labor screws things again..!?

    I wonder if its worth holding out until we have a sharp fall.. or just biting the bullet and transferring.. I still have a few months up my sleeve however.
     
  15. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    AUD/USD may hit the 80 US cent mark again.
    Cable can slump to $1.80 (current resistance at 1.9520 & support at 1.9350).
     
  16. Billv

    Billv Getting there

    Joined:
    15th Jul, 2007
    Posts:
    1,796
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Brendan

    I hate to tell you this but I think our $ will keep on going up.
    We have the highest interest rates in the western world.:eek:
    We have such a solid economy Labour can't stuff it up even if they wanted to.:D
    My only worry is world recession but that will affect everyone including the UK.

    Cheers
     
  17. Brendan

    Brendan Member

    Joined:
    10th Feb, 2008
    Posts:
    19
    Location:
    Melbourne / London
    Bill,

    I knew that would be the answer.. but secretly hoping someone knew something that no one else did..

    Interesting the interest rate scenario, the UK and US are both lowering rates to curb a recession.. yet Australia is raising rates, it doesn't make all that much sense to me..
     
  18. transit

    transit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jan, 2006
    Posts:
    58
    2nd highest, i believe new zealand has the highest rates but we're not far behind. I'm hoping the AUD gets stronger as i want to move some money o'seas in the next 3-6 mths :)
     
  19. Saskatoon

    Saskatoon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Oct, 2005
    Posts:
    67
    Location:
    Aldgate, SA
    I was listening to Darryl Dixon on the radio last night. I think he stated that one economist thought the rate could be USD1.20 to AUD1.00 in five years. Anybody else hear that?
     
  20. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    AUD/USD:
    All time lowest low = 0.5016 (April 2001)
    All time highest high = 1.4855 (March 1974)
    Currently = 0.9339