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will they make the $100m?

Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by Nigel Ward, 15th Dec, 2005.

  1. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    $97.86 million and just 15 1/2 days to go

    and some of those days are public holidays...

    will NavraInvest hit the $100m by 31st December???

    it's worse than "Lost" and "who shot Mr Burns/JR?" all at once :eek: :D

    anyone want to lay odds? ;)

    N.
     
  2. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    My vote will be 'Yes'.........they'll make it. :cool:

    Anyone also want to take a stab at the expected Distribution this Quarter? I'm not quite so optimistic here and would take a stab at more like 1.8-2.0% for Retail.
     
  3. gazza

    gazza Well-Known Member

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    Yes they will although I am more interested in hearing how they will trying to move from the 100m to 300m over the next period, if the money for the big advertising blitz was not forthcoming from the share sale. To me , it's crucial for the survival of the company that FUM is around 300m or more so that the performance fees earned start flowing though as dividends.

    In terms of this quarter's distribution, I think between 2 and 2.5%
     
  4. MrDarcy

    MrDarcy Well-Known Member

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    FUM $300m would be good us shareholders :D

    Near end of last quarter, Steve gave an estimate of expected distributions (and why not, they where great). I wonder if this might happen again (hint hint).
     
  5. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Nigel,

    With the AJX at 4620 equating to 97.86M, all they need to have happen is for the index to rise to 4720 and they're at 100M! :D

    Or I could just park another 2.2M in the fund to get them across the line... :p ;)

    My vote is a definate yes to the $100M mark, and a vote for 1.5% distribution for the quarter. Its been a mediocre one in the scheme of things thanks largely to the October correction.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  6. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't October, and the subsequent November rise, have helped the fund? I thought it was all about the rollercoasters?
     
  7. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Glebe,

    Don't open that can of worms. Its still underperforming the index so management fee is looking dodgy too. Steve has promised a technical presentation to members to explain how it trades and performance against the index. Looking forward to it myself...

    I bought in on 14/10 and performance of the XJO since then is +5.0%. Performance of the retail fund is +3.2%. So, that's a 1.8% under-performance to the index or an opportunity cost to me of $9,797.19 in under-performance. No biggie, I'm sure she'll out-perform the index in subsequent quarters and its a long term game, just painting the performance result picture. :D

    Cheers mate,
    Michael.
     
  8. MrDarcy

    MrDarcy Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, have you really lost? I'm not sure as the XJO gain is un-realised whereas Navra will return income. I supposed in an ideal universe, had the Navra fund traded the exact same stocks in same quantities as XJO, then it could distrubute that 5%. But it didn't, as this was not how it controls risk, but will still return a handy locked in return.
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "........Its been a mediocre one in the scheme of things thanks largely to the October correction "....

    Michael ...

    October correction ??? :confused: :confused: What correction ??.
    It was a hiccup ( I should say - pull back ) NOT a correction...
    The same pull back occured approx. 18.03.05 - 20.05.05 ( weekly graph ).
    Correction will start below 4230 level.

    Watch DOW and 4680 level on XJO......
    The game is NOT over yet...
    :cool:
     
  10. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    Yes......this will be interesting Gazza.

    In some ways I wonder whether the next $100mil will be harder to get than the first $100mil? A couple reasons might be:

    a) If much of the existing FUM came from the existing Client base, possibly a large part of that source may have already been exhausted.

    b) Money coming into the Fund (as much as we like to be contrarian :D ) has probably been partly due to the great return of the Australian Stock Market in the last few years. With PER's now up around 17 or so I guess a market pullback or flattening would be more likely. A pullback from annual +20% Returns may reduce inflows into the Fund.

    c) Let's not forget there are (I think :confused: ) more than 8000 Funds out there and some of these have had some pretty impressive returns too. ie. VERY competitive market.

    d) The NavraInvest Fund has been sold on the principles of DCT producing reasonably large 'outperformances'. I think the website said the goal was something like 9 or 10% annual outperformance. To date, these sorts of outperformance figures haven't eventuated. I'm not saying they won't, I'm just saying the actual results to date have not reflected these goals. Performance Fee achieved for this Financial Year(Retail Fund) to 14/12/05 is currently 0.07%.

    e) A growth source may be the DOW Fund if it eventuates, however the previous point may have an impact here too.
    A driver for the DOW Fund is still the principle of DCT and surely a marketing point would be that due to the increased US volatility even better 'outperformance' should be possible. How valuable a marketing point this will be will still depend on the actual performance of DCT though.

    f) Another major marketing point for the Fund is probably the fact that it only charges a performance fee. If for any reason this was altered to a Fixed Fee, this marketing advantage would be lost. Again, not saying this will happen, but it would have to be an option if sufficient performance fees weren't received.

    g) As you say, the lack of Funds for a major advertising/marketing campaign may also make things tougher than they may have otherwise been.

    OR

    ........on the other hand, maybe Funds will come rushing in and outperformance will skyrocket. :)



    The next 6 months will be very interesting.
     
  11. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    $98.55m only 1.45m to go.
     
  12. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    Nigel,

    Why do I have this picture of you in your office with a riding crop in one hand and yelling "GO YOU GOOD THING.......GO!!!!!!!!" :D :D

    The people in adjoining offices must be wondering what on earth is going on? :confused: ;) :p :D
     
  13. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Have you been spying on me Alan?? :p

    Riding crop? now there's an idea...

    The mind boggles. :eek:

    I just want to see that nice round number...it offends my sense of symmetry to be so close to 9 figures
     
  14. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    :D :D :D


    Well, I guess if it's a Law Firm there could be worse sounds coming from some of the other offices...:eek: ;)

    Know what you mean though........$100mil has quite a ring to it doesn't it? Quite an achievement......



    :)
     
  15. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    Only $560K to go as of yesterday and the market is up about 15 or 16 points as of a few minutes ago.........

    $100mil is looking good for this week...... :)

    Hmmmm........what do you do for $100mil? Is that 100 candles on the cake or would Fund Manager etiquette require one candle per $100mil :confused: :confused:

    Nice dilemma to have! :D :D
     
  16. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    " Only $560K to go as of yesterday and the market is up about 15 or 16 points as of a few minutes ago........."

    From today's close we still need few more points to break 4680...
    Maybe ..... tomorrow ;)
    :cool:
     
  17. redrover

    redrover Well-Known Member

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    .... but quarterly distribution below 2% !!! :( :(
     
  18. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm.......maybe not.......

    I'll revise my best guess now to +2%......


    :)
     
  19. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    O.K.....Seems to me that Santa is back in business... :D

    If we close today above 4680 - the next two levels to watch = 4782 ; 4810.
    It's quite possible that we might get an extra 2% in the next 5 trading days of 2005....
    Keep $miling....
    :cool:
     
  20. perky

    perky Well-Known Member

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    Today certainly looks more promising, I would still hazard a guess at maybe 2 to 2.5% distribution this quarter. More would be nice though!!