Managed Funds will they make the $100m?

In plain english...how are you guys calculating the expected distribution?

Whats the formula?

Where are you getting the figures for Navra fund to compare to the market?

Aren't distributions based on trade profits rather than fund growth ?

Excuse my ignorance but I'm lost!

MJK

 

Tropo

You seem to have definite views always on particular resistance levels for the index. I'm curious as to how you calculate those. Which techie methods are you using and which instruments are you trading (if you don't mind me asking).

Cheers
N.

 

Hi Nigel,

Well ... basically I am using trendlines to calculate support/resistance and/or moving averages.
Depends on what I see on the screen I use Fibo, patterns (like channels, triangles etc), previous supp/resistance, pivot points, candlestick patterns etc...Just basic tools ( nothing magical ).
Sometimes I might be wrong ( and I am from time to time ) - but in this business nothing works 100% at the time.
For quite some time now I trade Forex only.

 

Only $ 130K to go ( as of yesterday ).

I have got proposition for you....

If Santa hit 100M this week You owe me a beer.
IF it hits next week I owe you a beer...
How about that ???

 

Bad odds that
After todays very good day on the market, it would almost certainly have gone over 100mill sometime during today.
Well done NavraInvest!!
Now lets hope it starts to outperform again!!

 

Instead of trying to work out distribution calculations it really is easier to ring Theresa and ask her what the projected distribution is going to be close to the end of the quarter, which is what I did and the answer was probably 1.9%, but not exceeding 2%. Also I dont see the relevance of $50m or $100m FUM as affecting the percentage of distribution!

 

1.9% would be a disappointing result, the lowest distribution since the inception of the fund (barring the very first one which doesn't really count as the fund had only being trading for a month) plus no outperformance fees for the company (as of yesterday anyway). I find it even more disappointing given that we have had a reasonably volatile quarter with the market falling by over 5% in October before recovering to new highs.

 

Volatility means good buying opportunities which I believe was taken advantage of.

I am hoping that next years first distribution reflects the trading that has been done lately?

Cheers,

 

Tha she blows.........

100.86mil !!!!!



Net Fund Return for Retail now up to about 9.5% too........

 

Nigel,

You owe me a beer .... hahahahahaaaaa
Keep on $miling !!!.

 

We'll see.......maybe a case of under promise.....over deliver.......

 

Always happy to oblige. You can collect in the New Year!

Cheers
N.

 

The fund is likely to be around 10.4% or so after todays market close.
My guess for the distribution is around 2.4% (leaving around 2.4% in unrealised capital gains in there from the first 2 quarters).
The funds performance has been disappointing in this last quarter.
However I am thinking that next quarter and the one following, the stocks that the fund invests in will outperform the market (such as BSL).
But that creates a interesting situation - if this is to be the case then how much do I take out of the wholesale aust fund and put into the US fund when it starts ??? (seeing as though the US stockmarket - according to most commentators - will outperfrom the AUS stock market over the next 12 months.....

 

No one knows the future thus, IMHO, the question should be: How much taking out would make you feel confortable?

Happy New Year,

artgul