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Trading Would all be ready to jump for gold?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 20th Feb, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    The market sentiment about gold seems in its very important time: 1. gold rushed up over more than $1,400, which stir the hope and fear at the same time based on the position people who took about gold; 2. gold dropped down about $100 very soon after, which was interpreted as the sign gold boom was at the end; 3. gold surprised too many pessimists or seller of the gold by adding more without the expectation of them; 4. the surprises of gold up stir the market much more than any time and the moms and dads at some place in this world show their favorite to the gold; 5. complex scam for new market darling usually is the sign for great market sentiment change, which could result in mania in unbelievable scale and speed; 6. more and more in the market are thinking about where gold would be and image the chances to make killings from the possible dramatic upleg ahead.

    What would you do? Have you checked your mental model to see what could you get from this market sentiment shifting if it happens? Could it be chance or trap for you? Is it possible if gold ultimate bubble moves in and all of items in the market which have the tags of hopeful golden something? Don't know and don't want to know what would happen in reality exactly but do hope I am roughly right in my own mental world with the gold about the real gold price in future. One thing I am very sure I am much more ahead than the market about the gold if gold ultimate bubble would be there sooner or later. I have got my position at extremely low price for some golden dirty-cheap fishes. I am ready for all of mom and dads to chase for golden matters with the room if nothing happen!

    What about market sentiment if gold could be $1,4500 first...? What is enough for the return from our golden tagged items in the market? We are insane in the time always when we should be sane, ain't we? Buying for value, is right but how about holding and selling when all of us are crazy?

    Let's wait and see what will happen if we have made our decision and believe it is right. The consequences are very important but could not tell we are good decision or not. I accept any consequence from my decision about gold and I have prepared for this gold ultimate bubble for too long. There are always some good black swans for your options in the market if you choose your options at the right time, right place, with the affordable capital!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't believe it? Think it again!

    In the market, the big reward/loss has to come from something no one believe would happen but do happen. Could gold move up to the sky? Possible even it could not touch the moon. Could the herd would line up toward a new cliff? Possible! The question to a market player is not where herd would go which we could not control but how we could not be hurt first and how we could sell the overpriced gold to the herd if everyone would like to jump down to the cliff.

    Don't hit me for your moral or ethical standard. You work in the market workshop you have to make the profit to make your living. If you are too greedy and drop into the cliff, the society should save you to hungry to die and I deserve the fate if I could not avoid the fate in the cliff. It is the same to all of the market players. We could see the market as a huge game machine which has its cost to pay if you lose in the game.

    If you win, you just need to remember you are lucky and try to be lucky again. If you lose you have to check what cause the failure. We have to learn not to blame others for our own failure. The more you blame the harder you die in the market! Sound cruel but it is the reality in the market. Capitalism is not good always but it motivates the people to take the risks and no risks no chances.

    A lot of people in Western World fail to know why China could go so far. In market point of view, it is a capitalism more than that in Australia. Capitalism is more effective and efficient to make things happen even sometimes very cruel to the poor. Socialism is a good force to overcome the bad side of the capitalism but if it goes too far no one could get better life even to the poor such as the communism(fundamental one) did in China. Once a man could get enough for the mouths of his family he would enjoy to pay for some gold items for his ladies. Gold price should be up to some higher level due to this basic fundamental needs before the mania and ultimate bubble in my view.

    In my view, GFC didn't change the fundamental basic globally in any sense. It is not a matter if gold would generate its ultimate bubble but when and how. To individual market player, it is a problem if he could be survival in the case it comes too late for him to wait.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Feb, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Star gives the brightest at its end!

    Gold becomes hot again since its price up to more than $1,400 again. Market sentiment changes big or little with the absolute amount added up or dropped down from gold price. Could gold become a little bit colder again? Quite possible. Could it be cold as it was in 2000? Could it be red hot? Different people with different view of the gold, market, and world, feel different but once your views are denied by the market again and again, you would be frustrated first, ignore it second, shocked third if the real price is contrasted against your expectation too much.

    What happen if you are shocked again and again? Most of market players have enough gambling genes and the shocks would add more imagination in their mind. More and more would jump into the action to form gold ultimate bubble. Don't believe the ultimate bubble would be the matter tomorrow or some remote future matters. No one really know. Human acts in herd. They tend to think, wonder, worry, fear, greed, and be mad on the same thing at the same time.

    In macro level, human race are controlled by some natural laws. They don't move at very beginning since the inertia but if it starts to move, it has to move too far and then could stop. Have you heard the words "the star gives the brightest at its end." Do you think gold is in the ultimate bubble stage? I don't think so. If it is it should shoot up without correction until all of us turn to be crazy.

    Don't know if we could see the gold at its last stage of its current historical booming trend but if it happens it would be extremely risky and profitable. Could you get the profit or ashes from the burnt money? I feel I could get the profit if it would be true but if it fails to be ultimate bubble, XAO should be perform better and better. Aussie market players are very conservative. We worry all around the world and if no worry at all it should be better off and we should get the normal profit around the historical means.