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Trading XAO: Cheers for it to challenge 5000

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 9th Feb, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    5,000 is a pivot point for market sentiment in my view. It is grateful to see it challenged 5,000 at first time since GFC crashing.

    A lot of market players would wonder if it could be dragged back but I am sure it would. However the trend is very evident that it would be more than 5,000 sooner or later.

    There are sometimes in the market when all of genius and bums make the money. Don't know when it would come in but quite sure XAO would get its lost value back.

    Could we make the profit in the time while XAO comes back to 5,000, 5,500, 6,000, or more? How long would it take? Could you get your position at the right time for right risks and then collect the right profit!

    XAO goes!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    We may not see where a water drop move to but we may be able to see where the trend of ocean move to. Some we could predict but some we would be desperately unable to get the senses. I do wonder where my water drops would go with the ocean trend. XAO is the indicator of the trend of Australia stock market. My pinnies are the water drops I could explore in the market.

    Could I get another one or two 10 baggers after July 2011? If expected value of the probability is about the means for long term, could I expect sometimes the price of my fishes could shoot up much more than the mean in the case I got them when I believe their prices were lowest in their historical channels?

    Too much noises in the market. Could we know when it is best to get the winning signal? I take 5,000 of XAO as a signal of the market trend, which if could be passed over would tell us GFC is gone in Australia!

    What if GFC is gone completely? Water up and all of boats float?
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Could we be trapped again?

    Possible but unlikely in my view. Market only could climb up when the wall of the worries are too thick and too high. If no worries at all, such as if no worries about China would crash down, Australia has too many natural disasters, and in US few could get job, we would no hope. Life logic to human is simple. You have to worry about something and then you could make something. What if we have all but nothing needs to do? No life at all!. I am happy to see we have enough worries in Australia to force the government and most of us work very hard! Why GFC in? Too few worried about what would be wrong!
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Regression to mean and Your decision!

    By probability theory, the distribution of probability have tended to regress back to means. The means is decided by the no-random forces in long term with the unpredictable random forces. The means reflect the impact of the fundamental forces for long run or the time horizon we would like o bet. Depending on the knowledge structure of each of market players, if you could find the means correctly with some personal insight or vision, you do need to buy when the random forces such the market sentiment, fade, or whatever you image, to push the price down enough for your safety.

    ***
    Emerging-market veteran taps Egypt, Mideast, BRICs FundWatch - MarketWatch

    Market winners are not those who are never fearful or greedy but those who could use their fears or greed at the right time at right position.

    ***
    "Few investors have as much experience in developing markets as Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, a unit of mutual-fund giant Franklin Resources Inc.

    So while anxious investors are pulling money out of emerging markets, following antigovernment protests and food riots in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and Lebanon, Mobius seems unfazed. In fact, he sees political change generally as a potential investment opportunity.

    “We think from a longer-term perspective.” “We’re thinking of buying more in an environment like this. [We’re] looking to get real good, low prices when there is panic selling.”

    A lot of market players evidently aren’t willing to take chances. Outflows from emerging market equity funds were at their strongest level since 2008 for the week ending Feb. 2, as investors shifted funds to developed markets. We could feel the fear in Australia market too.

    Could we see Mobius is playing historical means for long term by buying when the bad things panic the market?
    ***

    More thought in wdongli - Member Blogs
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    A cheerful matter: the surprsing laggards

    Australia economies are ones of the best economies in the advanced economies. Australia stock market is the worst one in the advanced stock market. It is the surprising laggard, isn't it? It is abnormal since stock market should be the barometer of the economies and business.

    An article is worth to have a read, Australian stocks: the surprising laggards.

    What do you think about these laggards? There are a lot of worries in the market. Aussies are very fearful now. This fear roots in the shock of GFC. This fear roots in the worry about government capability to manage the economies as a whole. The fear roots in the worry of the tip-off of the emerging economies and China economies. The market want to follow DOW but it fear to do so. Aussie has accepted the theory that the global economic structure has been shifted. However the fear blind the eyes of Aussies. China could tip off but in my views it seems Europeans and Japanese market players should worry the market much more than Aussies.

    The key is that do you trust Aussies' feeling about the market and economy or the trend of the global economy recovery? I do believe the problems which affect the feeling of Aussies market players, would be fixed sooner or later. If the global economy could go back to normal, it is not a bad news we are laggards now. The stronger the barriers are, the more powerful the price movement would be if the barriers could be blow up! Could Australia market would be the laggards in another half year? I hope so. Since all of my shares would be in my hand more than 1 year then.

    I don't mind the laggards but I do mind if our economies go down the road to crash. Good news is it seems unlikely it would crash down to ground. I like the current herd worries, impatience, and indifference very much, which means the market has got all bad things in the consideration. The more time XAO passes over 5,000, the more fears from market herd. However the content of the worry would change in the repeating. I guess more and more would worry about that the train could leave from the station without them.

    Hope I could lock a few 10 baggers after 1st July since the train has left from the station. Could you image it with some confidence about the Australia Economy?
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Could XAO be back more than 5000?

    Without matter how Aussie market players worry about the future in the uncertainties, XAO would be very likely back more than 5000 again in a year. Are you ready for it? All of us have stayed in the darkness made by the 15 month XAO correction for too long.

    But if we know how XAO moved in history, we should know it always started its booming steps until all of risk signs had been removed generated by the crisis and stubbornly cheered at last stage of the mania. XAO is the followers in the global advanced markets and it feels always too hard to trust any new trend. However it would catch up especially after a pivot point had been challenged and successful passed over. Could XAO stay in the correction channel for another 15 months? Could China put its feet on the brake for another 15 months? Could Japan stay in the ruin without any desire to rebuild their home in next 15 months? Could Middle East would be in troubles for another 15 months? Could DOW be back to its historical channel set in IT bust?

    How to get a good enough revenue in 2011/2012 financial year? Playing in the market as we playing chess somehow. We have to think what the others would do in future, what market will do in the future, what we should do in future, and what the worst or best black swans would likely stay at the door steps of our home. It is not easy but we don't have any other better options, don't we? Could we get what we want to cry in the correction? Crying just make the crying rational and acceptable, which I dislike very much! What happened meant it should happen without matter we cry or not. What will happen is a matter no one could be sure theoretically but if you could sense it right intelligently or luckily, you could even change the world let alone making a killing in the market.

    So what happen in future is a matter we should be cheerful to work on, in the workshop, office, and all of future scenarios of our shares and portfolio to turn them right and left, up and down to see which is probably the consequence of your decision in future. Don't worry you could be wrong, if you just have plan B for the most possible worst case.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Mar, 2011
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO, could you stand up?

    After the selling in the disasters, geopolitical crises, minor government and failed leadership formed in tandem, XAO seems recovered from the recent shocks.

    1. Aussie could not just follow the US economically as before; The darkness of GFC have given enough motivation to predict good Aussie economies would definitely turn to bad sooner or later;

    2. Australia dollar could be appreciated since all of people around world know we have very valuable assets, the resource for the world and the world needs it very much;

    3. But Aussie market herd has got enough lessons from what they held in GFC: the Aussie and emerging economies would have been decoupled from US at least but it was completely wrong.

    4. They don't want to be fooled by the resource booming any more but they just use the wrong reasons to make more mistakes. History will tell us again that Aussie herd would be wrong as all of the herds around the world.

    They got into GFC in full heart. They missed V-shape recovery. They will missed the chances but take the risks and losses they deserve! One thing is sure Aussie herd would come back just before the next crash to burn the money on the fire, which is their instinct inherently!

    I am sure XAO would stand up again but the herd would find chance to beat it(the herd) down again! Are your the members of the herd?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 1st Apr, 2011
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    One after another crises in tandem since October 2009 hit XAO down to the bottom covering line again and again, which generated a considerable wall of worries as happened after any crisis in history.

    [​IMG]

    However it seemed get more power or momentum to challenge the psychological pivotal point, 5,000. Have you imaged that XAO could be at the position to challenge 5,000 again when you first heard the Japan's quake and reactors' crises and what happened in Middle East?

    Have you got the value, huge or residual ones in your securities, in great discount? Have you ready to join the possible and probable huge swing which would make the XAO passes through 5,000? Do you know all of these crises just extend the length for the economies back to normal? Do you know GFC just made the worst abnormal for our generations and abnormal logically and philosophically would be back to normal sooner or later?

    The world is not too bad if you know the old China in 1970s, the Soviet Union in 1980s, and Libya could put a bomb in a plan without worrying to be bombed? Dogs always chase their own tails as herd always could see what happen in days or months.

    If you have value and margin of safety, you just need to see when XAO could be more than 5,000 and life is good!
     
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO, You have a cold-bloody soul!

    Why do you move up in the shadow of more natural disasters in Japan? Are you a cold-blood guy? Why could you so indifferent to the pains around the world? Now you should have thousands of reasons to drop down if not crash.

    Why do you always play the card different from the market mass who are the people with just some dream of the cake in the sky? Do you just want to warn us behaving wisely and intelligently by following the rules and principles you set or just use a complicated or simple system to give out the random number to fool us or just simply twist us in your will?

    Do you know we have cried for long enough time. Mr. Market we need the hopes and could you stop driving all of people in the cities in China out which scares Aussie market players too much? Is it today you send us a strong signal that everything should be fine or a new trick you play with us?

    Don't assume I hate you. I love you too much but do you think the love should be equal and fair? Are you cold bloody?
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO fell down to less than 5,000 again. A lot of traders run away in the ruins remained in the market from GFC. They have to make loss and stop loss, which is what they should be in the market.

    I really hope in the first half of this year, XAO could be beaten down lower than 4,000, which would make the market much under-priced as a whole and then I could pick up some very dirty or dreadful fishes.

    If you want to sell, please choose the worst days to sell! I guess it should be around the end of May and the whole of days in June this year. Why don't you sell if you know it could be lower than 5,000, 4,000, or worst 3,400 in the past two years?

    If we could not win we have to run away! Once some run away perhaps everyone wants to run away! Could I never run away even all of the market runs away?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Apr, 2011
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Sold and bought, what happened yesterday and today?

    Market is a great roller-coasters as all of us should know. We know and all of us know. In a few days, XAO has been dragged up/down by the market herd as the hostage of DOW. Why? It is because the herd never could use its mind to think and question let alone reasoning!

    1. it always takes the way which needs the least efforts.

    2. it always is to sell too early before and during the booming and often to see the trains left without them!

    3. it always is to buy at peak before the crash.

    4. it always is to sell in ruins even all of the fires have been under control! Any smoke could be the triggers to let it get the illusion of the lost-controlled fire when all of the market want to smoke the dope to fly.

    5. could you see too many glossy appearance in the ruins? After your house was burnt down what's the risk to your life?

    5.1> Lose the hope and try to justify all of the houses would be on fire sooner or later? That is what Aussie market herd tries at moment!

    5.2> Actually it has done so for more than 18 months? Could it do so in another 18 months? Possible and really possible but I believe quite unlikely! So I keep my guarded optimistic in this dream land even XAO dropped more than DOW and up less than it!

    More thought in Sold, what happened yesterday and today? - Member Blogs
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Apr, 2011
  12. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    DOW has performed very bullishly since GFC and XAO has refused to be led to cross over the top line of the correction channel it stays now.

    Could XAO run down much more than any big boys around the world in the next bearish DOW run even you still believe XAO is really mentally sick since its economies is conservative and have better shape than others? Possible and you have to protect your principals for the possible running down and leave chances to join the run up with big enough margin of safety. How?

    You have to appreciate the underprice of XAO but not ignore the possible running down as it really enjoyed to do in the last 18 months!

    You must be fail-safe when you try to reach the gold ahead!

    More thought in Who's right, the market herd or the men with insight and guts - Member Blogs
     
  13. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO: All things would be bad!

    All of the world markets up but XAO did find its own reasons to be down by itself. Why? Since the herd of Australia market is in deep delusion caused by the shocking of resource crashing in GFC.

    1. US started its official admitted Great Recession at the end of 2007

    2. All of shares not in resource relative followed the suit set by US but very reluctant since herd then believed the decoupling theory very much.

    3. All of shares in resource sectors kept to hold their position toughly since the herd believed the resource booming could be last without any headwind
    until July 2008.

    4. Since then XAU followed DOW crashed and crashed more and then herd in Australia market could not forget what happened.

    5. So what happen in the Australia market is everything could be bad: excellent news is good news, good news is bad, and bad news is the ticket to the hell.

    6. It seems no matter how good the economies in Australia, the herd could interpret any news as bad one.

    7. Do wonder why the herd wants to burn its own house after some big boys burnt their own houses.

    8. Australia economies performance is the best in advanced economies but its stock market is the worst one in this world.

    However the minority government seems really let the herd worry. It just acts as populists but never try to move the economies forward. So that DOW up we go down. We are really decoupled from any good future if you believe market could tell our future.

    However I still have the confidence in Australia economies since Oil is more than $100, gold is at $1,500, and all of metals are priced high enough. In the ruins herd would cry until they could find any reasons to cry. But few people think the old economies are hopeless but worry the emerging economies could tip off....

    Could all of the oil, gold, and metals sold at the price similar those in 1990s? XAO tags its price as though it would be true! Is it clever or stupid? How long would it be insane?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Apr, 2011
  14. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    We are really fearful now!

    I just counted the bad events this year to the market players or herd:

    1. European deficit crisis: one after another

    2. Minority government just want to be the camp of the populist. Australia seems nowhere to go led by it.

    3. Natural disasters in Queensland and other states

    4. Middle East rebelling

    5. China high inflation and potential tip-off even no one know how about the probability.

    We as Australia market players, become the orphans in this world. Advanced world think we just have old economy. Old economy still could not give people the courage for Australia market to run by itself.

    So US up and then we down. China up but US down then we down. We are confused by the world. We could not say we have a decoupled economies from the US but we also could not follow it up! We could not say we belong to emerging economy but China could cause our cough heavily.

    Market sentiment is very powerful. Fears could be spread as virus. So excellent news is good. Good is bad. And bad is about the sky falling down. It seems the Australia market just want to see what if China tips off to it.

    What can you do? Make you safe and let the herd cries. Are you a technician in the market? Could you tell we just follow the price trend when the new economies in the boom? Could you tell any illogical matter in the drawing? Our economy seems never get any benefit by the commodity booming!

    Herd is very stubborn as me and it needs the time to change minds! Is in US and Europe the iron could be sold as gold and in Australia we just could sell gold as iron? Gold is always gold and wait for people to find.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 30th Apr, 2011